Gates, Scott; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) Standing Idly by during the Revolution, PRIO Policy Brief, 15. Oslo: PRIO.
Violent uprisings last about two and a half times as long as non-violent campaigns on average. Brutal repression of a non-violent campaign can end the conflict quickly. Widespread defection among the security forces also leads to a relatively quick end to a non-violent campaign. If the security forces defect, the chances of success for a non-violent campaign increase substantially. Defection can take the form of desertion or shirking (standing idly by) and not following orders to repress. Non-violent tactics are much more likely to lead to defection than violent tactics.
Research Professor. Editor, International Area Studies Review
Senior Researcher. Managing Editor, International Area Studies Review
The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups and people.