Standing Idly by during the Revolution

PRIO Policy Brief

Gates, Scott; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) Standing Idly by during the Revolution, PRIO Policy Brief, 15. Oslo: PRIO.

​​​​​​​​Violent uprisings last about two and a half times as long as non-violent campaigns on average. Brutal repression of a non-violent campaign can end the conflict quickly. Widespread defection among the security forces also leads to a relatively quick end to a no​​n-violent campaign. If the security forces defect, the chances of success for​​ a non-violent campaign increase substantially. Defection can take the form of desertion or shirking (standing idly by) and not following orders to repress. Non-violent tactics are much more likely to lead to defection than violent tactics.​

Authors

Scott Gates

Scott Gates

Research Professor. Editor, International Area Studies Review

Marianne Dahl

Marianne Dahl

Doctoral Researcher

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Senior Researcher. Managing Editor, International Area Studies Review

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