The outbreak of war against Iran also affects grandiose designs, such as the Vertical Corridor

The geopolitical factor is always extremely important, not only in times of crisis, as has been the case with Ukraine for four years. In this case, the EU has rushed to replace one energy dependency with another, which may prove to be both uncertain and much more expensive, especially if the crisis in the Middle East worsens. The tactics of the European leadership could be considered careless.

For example, it recently turned to Qatar to secure liquefied gas flows from there, but the Emirate’s response was that unless the EU lifted its methane and sustainability provisions, it could not supply it with LNG. Now, the world’s largest LNG facility has been hit by Iran, so Qatar’s alternative is even more remote.

And if Iran, in defense, further tightens its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, if it mines it for example, the costs of supplying hydrocarbons will skyrocket, as almost a third of the world's oil and natural gas supplies pass through there. These developments also affect ambitious plans, such as the famous Vertical Corridor, the actual full operation of which requires a multitude of regulatory decisions from all the states through which the pipeline passes.

The EU – and Greece – is investing heavily in a project that is both expensive and would take many years to complete. After the end of the Ukrainian war and under the pressure of developments in the Middle East, EU countries would not be unlikely to reconsider their relationship with Russia. It would be useful to remember that for more than half a century, throughout the Cold War, Europe considered it a reliable energy ally. Of course, the combination of this Commission’s orientation and choices and the worrying leadership deficit in the EU may mean that a realistic turnaround may be delayed.

• Harry Tzimitras is the Director of the PRIO Cyprus Centre
• This text was first published in Greek by I Efimerida ton Syntakton (Journalists’ Newspaper), Athens