Anxiety among Norwegians about the state of global peace and security continues to grow, according to a new survey released by PRIO.
The annual survey which gauges Norwegian attitudes toward war and peace, reveals that 59% of people questioned believe a new armed conflict in Europe is likely within the next decade, up from 55% last year. Similarly, 45% of respondents consider it likely that a new world war will break out within 10 years, up from 41% in 2024. Almost 40% believe a nuclear attack somewhere in the world is likely in the next five years.
At the same time, concern about the erosion of global democratic values and the decline of international institutions is becoming more apparent. The survey finds that 62% of people believe democracy is in decline globally. Similarly, 64% agree that institutions such as the United Nations are less powerful than they once were.
While the concern over conflict globally and regionally remains high, Norwegians are also increasingly concerned about the country’s own security: 31% believe it is likely that Norway will experience armed conflict on its territory within the next decade (up from 26% in 2024), while 11% think it is likely that a nuclear attack against Norway will take place within the next five years.
The broader picture is one of growing global anxiety and declining trust in international institutions.
“A sense of foreboding about the future is growing among Norwegians. These findings paint a picture of a public increasingly attuned to global instability and skeptical about the capacity of institutions to manage it,” said Nina Græger, Director of PRIO. “This growing concern about international conflict and democratic backsliding will be central to our conversations at Arendalsuka festival next week, where PRIO is hosting three events to engage with the public and policymakers on the future of peace and security.”
PRIO will take part in Arendalsuka, Norway’s largest political gathering, with a series of events addressing the resilience of democratic institutions and the global backsliding of women’s rights, against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and rightwing populism. “In these times of uncertainty and polarization, dialogue and evidence-based policy are more important than ever,” added Græger.
These Norwegian perceptions mirror a grim global reality. The world is witnessing a surge in violence unprecedented since the end of World War II. In 2024, the number of state-based armed conflicts reached its highest level in over 70 years. According to PRIO’s Conflict Trends: A Global Overview report, a staggering 61 conflicts erupted across 36 countries last year—underscoring a world order under immense strain.
For more information or to arrange an interview:
- Contact Michelle Delaney, Communication Director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) | michelle@prio.org | mobile +47 941 65 579
- For more information about PRIO’s events at Arendalsuka, visit our website here.
- The survey was conducted by YouGov between 28 May and 2 June on a sample of 1,004 adults in Norway. The full survey data is available on request.
