Norwegians see Israel, Russia, the United States and Iran as the countries most likely to contribute to a future war involving one or more great powers, according to the Annual PRIO Survey on Norwegian Perceptions of War and Peace.
Respondents were asked to assess how likely it is that the actions of ten different countries would contribute to the outbreak of a war within the next decade. Israel ranked highest, with an average score of 8.3 on a 10-point scale, narrowly ahead of Russia (8.1). The United States ranked third (7.5), followed by Iran (7.4).
The findings suggest that Norwegians' perceptions of global security are shaped not only by Russia’s war in Ukraine, but increasingly by developments in the Middle East.
"One of the most striking findings is that Norwegians consider Israel and Russia to be about equally likely to contribute to a future great-power war," said Acting Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerløw. "The results reflects how rapidly public perceptions of international security can shift in response to ongoing conflicts."
The survey paints a picture of a public that remains deeply worried about the direction of the world. Nearly six in ten respondents believe a new armed conflict will break out in Europe within the next ten years, while more than six in ten believe democracy is in decline globally. Seven in ten believe there is more armed conflict in the world today than twenty years ago, and nearly six in ten believe more people are dying as a result of armed conflict than two decades ago.
These perceptions reflect a deteriorating global security environment. According to PRIO's latest Conflict Trends: A Global Overview report, the world experienced 65 state-based armed conflicts across 35 countries in 2025 – the highest number recorded since the end of the Second World War. Norwegians also seem to see their own country as insulated from the danger they perceive elsewhere. While six in ten expect a new war in Europe within the decade, only 28% think one is likely on Norwegian soil, and nearly half think it unlikely.
"There are now many places around the world where tensions are running high, such as Europe, the Horn of Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and the South China Sea. It is very difficult to know where the next crisis will emerge," says Gjerløw. "Norwegian fears about various conflict scenarios will shape the direction of Norwegian security, defence and foreign policy. And as we prepare for war, we must not forget also to secure the peace. This theme will be central to PRIO's discussions at Arendalsuka this week, where we are holding several events on war and peace."
Background to survey
- The survey was conducted by YouGov on behalf of PRIO between 25 and 30 June 2026. The survey has been carried out annually since 2023.
- A nationally representative sample of 1,022 Norwegian adults participated.
- The full survey data and methodology is available here and here.
For more information or to arrange an interview
- Contact Michelle Delaney, Communication Director at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) | michelle@prio.org | mobile +47 941 65 579.
- For more information about PRIO’s events at Arendalsuka, visit our website here.
