Renewable Resource Scarcity, Natural Disasters, and the Possibility of Collective Violence

The cross-national conflict literature has failed to converge on robust associations that could link resource scarcities with civil war. It has been suggested that droughts increase the risk of violent conflict, and that this is most pronounced with smaller-scale local conflicts. This project uses both single-case and cross-national statistical investigations to analyse the possible relationships between climatic factors, resource scarcities and violent conflict. It includes two quantitative case studies: one of Kenya and the other of Indonesia. It also includes a global analysis and three analyses of Africa in general, of which two have a subnational design. The main finding is that while there is no relationship between environmental shocks and civil violence, lower-level violence is influenced by resource shocks, although the risk of such violence appears to increase or decrease depending on the particular circumstances. Dissertation Advisors: Nils Petter Gleditsch(CSCW/NTNU) & Halvard Buhaug (CSCW)