Mach, Katharine J.; Caroline M. Kraan; W. Neil Adger; Halvard Buhaug; Marshall Burke; James Fearon; Christopher B. Field; Cullen Hendrix; Jeac-Francois Maystadt; John O'Loughlin; Philip Roessler; Jürgen Scheffran; Kenneth Schultz & Nina von Uexkull (2019) Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict, Nature 571: 193–197.
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are
diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the
relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured
judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that
climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However,
other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low
capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more
influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a
key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase
future risks of conflict.
A new study published in the journal Nature today assesses the role of climate in affecting the risk of armed conflict. Unlike conventional empirical analyses, this study is based on expert elicitation, where the data material is derived from in-depth interviews and structured group discussions among an interdisciplinary selection of scholars on climate-conflict relations. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries over the past century. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development, intergroup inequalities, and low state capabilities, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. PRIO researchers Halvard Buhaug and Nina von Uexkull took part in the elicitation and co-authored the study, which was facilitated by scholars at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University.
