A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems

Journal article

Rød, Espen Geelmuyden; Tim Gåsste & Håvard Hegre (2024) A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems, International Journal of Forecasting 40 (1): 96–112.

Link to article

We review and compare conflict early warning systems on three dimensions: transparency and accessibility, key parameters, and forecasts. The review reveals a need for improved transparency and accessibility of data and code, considerable variation in key parameters across systems, and significant overlaps in countries with the highest risk. We propose that developing standards and platforms that promote transparency, accessibility, and inter-system cooperation can improve knowledge proliferation and system development to mitigate and prevent political violence.

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