Forecasting

PRIO Blogs

Friday, 3 Feb 2023

Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century. When considering what our ...

Journal Article

2023

Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century

By Halvard Buhaug, Elisabeth Gilmore, Tor A. Benjaminsen & Cullen Hendrix in Climate Risk Management

PRIO Blogs

Friday, 30 Dec 2022

The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within ...

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PRIO Blogs

Friday, 3 Feb 2023

Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

PRIO Blogs

Friday, 30 Dec 2022

The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

News

Wednesday, 13 Jul 2022

Halvard Buhaug Awarded ERC Advanced Grant

Research Professor Halvard Buhaug has been awarded an Advanced Grant by the European Research Council (ERC) for the project "POLIMPACT: Enabling Politically Sensitive Climate Change Impact Assessments for the 21st Century".

News

Tuesday, 8 Feb 2022

ViEWS Receives Prestigious ERC Grant as the Only Project in Norway

The research project ViEWS - A political Violence Early-Warning System has received an ERC Proof of Concept Grant as the only project in Norway in this round of competition.

Journal Article

2023

The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways

By Kristina Petrova, Gudlaug Olafsdottir, Håvard Hegre & Elisabeth Gilmore in Environmental Research Letters

The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted

By Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi & Håvard Hegre in PRIO Blogs

News

Tuesday, 26 Apr 2022

Håvard Hegre Awarded ERC Advanced Grant

Håvard Hegre has been awarded a European Research Council Advanced Grant of EUR 2.5 million for the project ANTICIPATE - Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development.

Journal Article

2023

Climate-driven risks to peace over the 21st century

By Halvard Buhaug, Elisabeth Gilmore, Tor A. Benjaminsen & Cullen Hendrix in Climate Risk Management

News

Friday, 4 Nov 2022

Vacancy; Senior Developer

PRIO conducts research for a more peaceful world, and is committed to using the best of what technology has to offer to achieve that purpose. Having been at the forefront of data-driven social science research since its foundation in 1959, PRIO seeks to strengthen its data science competence by inviting applications for a Senior Developer. The successful candidate will join the team developing VIEWS – the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System that seeks to develop an early-warning system for the humanitarian impacts of armed conflict.