Do refugee camps impact hosts' security perceptions? Evidence from Africa

Previous research argues that negative externalities associated with hosting refugee camps can lead to insecurity. But do hosts living in districts with refugee camps generally feel less secure than those living in districts with no camps? To investigate whether the presence or size of encamped refugee populations affect hosts' perceived safety, we utilize geographically referenced survey data from Afrobarometer alongside information on the sizes and locations of refugee camps at the district level. To account for theoretically plausible mediating effects, we also examine the influence of several dimensions of state capacity on security perceptions. We find no general effect of hosting a refugee camp on local-level security perceptions, regardless of camp population size. Rather, our results show that refugee camp hosts feel safer from violence and crime when the state's security and administrative capacity are strong, but not otherwise. Our findings help illuminate the factors that contribute to individuals' opinion formation regarding their security, demonstrating that state-building can act as a significant mediator of security perceptions in countries that host forced migrants.