Key factors of violent natural resource-related conflicts and their implications for post-conflict forest landscape restoration: a systematic review of the resource-conflict nexus using causal network analysis.

A large body of research has explored linkages between natural resources and peace and conflict dynamics. However, despite progress towards nuanced representations of the resource-conflict nexus, a sufficiently integrated understanding of its complexity remains lacking. This paper applies a complex systems approach to explore direct and indirect causal relationships characterising this nexus. We conduct a systematic meta-analysis of 14 literature reviews on resources and organised violent conflict from the past 30 years, identifying a single integrated network comprising 329 factors and 1288 unique causal relationships. This network provides a holistic understanding of the current scientific discourse on resourceconflict relationships and represents a first step towards a systemic understanding of the drivers of natural resource-related conflicts for effective conflict prevention and peacebuilding. Network analysis identified 39 key factors at the core of the nexus, with political/institutional and economic factors accounting for 66% of nodes. Our analysis reveals a tendency to oversimplify linkages between natural resources and conflict, with over 90% of key factors directly linked to violent conflict. We interpret these findings through the lens of post-conflict forest landscape restoration (FLR), an emerging field that operates at the intersection of governance, livelihood, environmental, and social dynamics. The findings highlight the need to further investigate demographic, social/cultural, technological, and biophysical factors in resource-related conflicts and call for a more integrated understanding of human environment interactions across resource-conflict systems.