I am a Senior Researcher working with the POLIMPACT and VIEWS projects. In my research, I study and predict armed conflicts and their broader societal impacts on human development, as well as the linkages between conflicts, climate extremes and societal vulnerability to crises. Within the field of AI, my main focus is on machine learning applications for theory testing.
Paola Vesco
Senior Researcher
Email: paoves@prio.org
Interests and experience
Paola Vesco (PhD, Ca' Foscari University of Venice, 2020) is a Senior Researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). Her expertise includes the study and forecast of armed conflicts and their impacts on human development, with a focus on how violence and climate extremes adversely affect societies. She has been using quantitative methods and AI to develop and test her theories, and she is very interested in uncertainty in conflict event data. She is a researcher and former Deputy Director of the Violence and Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS), which leverages Artificial Intelligence and open-source data to produce forecasts of armed conflict globally. Paola is currently a member of the POLIMPACT project, where she develops projections of future political conditions and examines how they shape societal vulnerability to climate change.
Projects
Jun 2025 – Jun 2027
Women’s Empowerment in Peace Processes (EMPOW)
Women’s Empowerment in Peace Processes (EMPOW)
May 2024 – Dec 2026
From Grassroots to Hashtags: Organisational Features and Tactical Choice in Resistance Movements
From Grassroots to Hashtags: Organisational Features and Tactical Choice in Resistance Movements
Dec 2022 –
ANTICIPATE: Anticipating the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development
ANTICIPATE: Anticipating the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development
Oct 2022 – Oct 2027
Enabling Politically Sensitive Climate Change Impact Assessments for the 21st Century (POLIMPACT)
Enabling Politically Sensitive Climate Change Impact Assessments for the 21st Century (POLIMPACT)
Oct 2019 –
VIEWS: Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System
VIEWS: Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System
Sep 2023 – Aug 2026
Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict (UFFAC)
Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict (UFFAC)
Jun 2023 – Jun 2025
VIEWS-PIN: People in Need
VIEWS-PIN: People in Need
Apr 2023 – May 2025
VIEWS Prediction Competition: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
VIEWS Prediction Competition: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
Sep 2015 – Jun 2021
Climate Variability and Security Threats (CLIMSEC)
Climate Variability and Security Threats (CLIMSEC)
Latest publications
All publications
Weston Anderson et al. (2026)
Responsible use of artificial intelligence and machine learning for food security early warning systems
Responsible use of artificial intelligence and machine learning for food security early warning systems
Journal article in Nature Food
Paola Vesco et al. (2026)
The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a survey with UCDP coders
The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a survey with UCDP coders
Journal article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
Paola Vesco (2025)
Towers of Ivory and Steel: How Israeli Universities Deny Palestinian Freedom
Towers of Ivory and Steel: How Israeli Universities Deny Palestinian Freedom
Book review in JPR Book Notes
Paola Vesco et al. (2025)
Peace and good institutions save lives from floods
Peace and good institutions save lives from floods
Popular article in United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
Paola Vesco & Halvard Buhaug (2025)
Hvorfor Norge ikke har råd til å kutte i fredsbygging
Hvorfor Norge ikke har råd til å kutte i fredsbygging
Popular article in Dagsavisen
Paola Vesco et al. (2025)
Political development predicts reduced human cost of flooding
Political development predicts reduced human cost of flooding
Journal article in Nature Communications
Håvard Hegre et al. (2025)
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Paola Vesco et al. (2024)
The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Journal article in World Development
Håvard Hegre et al. (2022)
Forecasting Fatalities
Forecasting Fatalities
Håvard Hegre et al. (2022)
Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
Latest news
Friday, 29 May 2026
Looking for Horizon Europe partners? Explore PRIO’s new EU Matchmaking Guide
Looking for Horizon Europe partners? Explore PRIO’s new EU Matchmaking Guide
PRIO has developed a new EU Matchmaking Guide to support organisations preparing project proposals under Horizon Europe in identifying relevant researchers.
Wednesday, 29 Apr 2026
Evidence, Data, and Empowerment - Research supporting women's agency and gender equal reforms post war
Evidence, Data, and Empowerment - Research supporting women's agency and gender equal reforms post war
Women’s Empowerment in Peace Processes (EMPOW) and Women’s Activities in Armed Rebellion (WAAR) research teams met for a workshop on the role of data in promoting gender-equal peace.
Wednesday, 26 Nov 2025
Youth power and Women, Peace and Security in a new geopolitical and technical era
Youth power and Women, Peace and Security in a new geopolitical and technical era
Why is Women, Peace and Security (WPS) important for youth? New generations will be responsible for safeguarding past achievements and advancing the goals of the WPS agenda into new areas, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and cyber security.
Friday, 6 Jun 2025
The Complex Risk Analytics Fund supports new project on Women’s Empowerment in War and Peace: EMPOW
The Complex Risk Analytics Fund supports new project on Women’s Empowerment in War and Peace: EMPOW
EMPOW is a two-year initiative designed to provide novel open access data on women's mobilization for peace and gender equality reforms in the wake of war.
Monday, 25 Nov 2024
Armed Conflict’s Hidden Costs: A Multidisciplinary Look at War's Impact on Human Development
Armed Conflict’s Hidden Costs: A Multidisciplinary Look at War's Impact on Human Development
A new comprehensive review reveals that the detrimental effects of armed conflict extend far beyond the battlefield, with war reverberating through every aspect of human development.
Monday, 5 Jun 2023
PRIO’s cutting-edge conflict early warning system awarded funding to reshape crisis action
PRIO’s cutting-edge conflict early warning system awarded funding to reshape crisis action
PRIO has been awarded $US700,000 in funding by the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF'D) for its cutting-edge research into a revolutionary early warning system that assesses the impact of conflict and climate shocks on humanitarian needs.
Wednesday, 10 May 2023
Forecasting Conflict Intensity: Call for Abstracts
Forecasting Conflict Intensity: Call for Abstracts
The Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action.
Thursday, 28 Jan 2021
New special issue on climate change and conflict
New special issue on climate change and conflict
The Journal of PeaceResearch has just published a new special issue on ‘Security implicationsof climate change’ (January 2021), guest edited by Nina von Uexkull and HalvardBuhaug.
Monday, 1 Oct 2018
Workshop on Climate Change and Security
Workshop on Climate Change and Security
On 27-28 September2018, the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University and PRIOco-hosted a joint Workshop on Climate Change and Security in Uppsala.
Latest events
Tuesday, 15 Oct 2024 11:00–12:00 UTC+02
AI in Humanitarian Funding: Ensuring Fairness and Transparency
AI in Humanitarian Funding: Ensuring Fairness and Transparency
Wednesday, 14 Aug 2024 09:00–09:45 UTC+02
Is the world becoming more unhinged?
Is the world becoming more unhinged?
1–3 Mar 2023
ANTICIPATE Workshop
ANTICIPATE Workshop
22 Feb 2023–22 Mar 2023
Workshop: Counting the Uncounted
Workshop: Counting the Uncounted
6–7 Dec 2022
Prediction with Uncertainty Workshop
Prediction with Uncertainty Workshop
27–28 Oct 2022
VIEWS Workshop
VIEWS Workshop
Latest comments
Monday, 1 Dec 2025
Peace and good institutions save lives from floods
Peace and good institutions save lives from floods
Thursday, 27 Nov 2025
It comes in peace? AI’s promise and peril for women, peace and security
It comes in peace? AI’s promise and peril for women, peace and security
Friday, 30 Dec 2022
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
Monday, 22 Feb 2021
Climate, Crop, and Conflict: a matter of space?
Climate, Crop, and Conflict: a matter of space?
In the media
March 2024
PRIO researcher Paola Vesco was interviewed in an article about growing hunger levels in the Middle East, for The National regional newspaper.
PRIO started listing media appearances on profiles in 2023. Earlier media appearances may not be listed.
Work positions
2024–
Senior ResearcherVIEWS, POLIMPACTPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
2024–
ResearcherDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala UniversityEnabling climate-resilient development
2020–2023
ResearcherDepartment of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala UniversityPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)ViEWS, Societies at Risk
2019
ResearcherCLIMSECPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
2018
Visiting PhD candidateCLIMSECPeace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
Education
2020
PhD in Science and Management of Climate Change
Economics Department, Ca' Foscari University, Venice (Italy)The Climate-Conflict Nexus: exploring Indirect Pathways and Future Scenarios
2012–2014
M.A. International Studies and Diplomatic Relations
University of Trieste, Italy
Other positions and memberships
2023
Post-Doctoral Fellow
Centre for Advanced Studies (CAS), Norwegian Academy of Science and LettersStability and Change
2019
Visiting Student Researcher
Standford University, USA
