Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Nordkvelle, Jonas; Siri Aas Rustad & Monika Salmivalli (2017) Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization, Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3.

​In this paper, we ask two questions: (1) what type of research design allows us to treat climate variability as randomized and (2) what can we say about the relationship between climate variability and communal violence using this new design? To answer these questions, we analyze six large subnational areas, at a monthly time scale, and calculate the standardized precipitation index for each area for each month. We find that both short, unusually dry intervals and long, unusually wet intervals increase the likelihood of a communal conflict event.

Read the article here (Open Access)