Jonas Vestby
Senior Researcher
Email: jonves@prio.org
Twitter: @JonasVestby
I am interested in how we can learn from quantitative data in social sciences, especially data with a strong spatio-temporal component. Recurrent themes are modeling social phenomena, causal inference, forecasting and data quality.
I am currently working on projects that study the relationships between climate, climate change, agricultural performance and various conflict outcomes. My Phd, which I defended in March 2018 was entitled "Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future". The main conclusion in the dissertation was that causal effects of climate variability on conflict is dependent on context and conflict type.
Particularly, conflict types where organized actors challenging capable state militaries tend not to be affected. Rather, effects can be observed when violence is used for material gains in areas of limited statehood. When thinking about future effects of climate change on conflict, it is just as important to think about how the context will change as how climate exposure will change. The Phd also identify several methodological issues related to causal inference, and attempt to solve some of these.
Languages spoken:
Norwegian and English.
Education:
2018: Phd, Political Science, University of Oslo.
2010-2012: MA, Political Science, University of Oslo.
2004-2007: BA, International Politics and Philosophy. NTNU and Univ. of Oslo.
Latest publications
All publications
Predicting (de-)Escalation of Sub-National Violence Using Gradient Boosting: Does It Work?
Journal Article in International Interactions
Climate and International Migration Flows: A Sensitivity Analysis of Gravity Model Specifications
Report - External Series
Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A dual sector approach
Journal Article in World Development
Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration
Journal Article in Nature Communications
On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Journal Article in Global Environmental Politics
Machine Learning and the Police: Asking the Right Questions
Journal Article in Policing: a Journal of Policy and Practice
Climate variability and individual motivations for participating in political violence
Journal Article in Global Environment Change
ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System
Journal Article in Journal of Peace Research
Does hunger cause conflict?
Popular Article in PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog
Fører matmangel til mer krig?
Popular Article in Bistandsaktuelt
Latest news
Forecasting Conflict Intensity: Call for Abstracts
The Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) team is committed to providing humanitarian groups with the earliest possible warnings to support anticipatory action.
Peace Science Infrastructure: PRIO to Head Large New Collaboration
Friday, we got to know that a large project has been funded by the Research Council of Norway's INFRASTRUKTUR initiative, that aims to build up relevant, up-to-date infrastructure that is accessible to the research community, to various private and public sector user groups, and to the general public.
New Project on Online Dangerous Speech and Violence (ODAS)
The ambition of the ODAS project is to explain how online dangerous speech contributes to communal violence in Southeast Asia. The ultimate ambition of ODAS is to test a causal connection between dangerous online speech and violence. To do so, speech and violence data must be merged.
This is one out of five PRIO projects that today have received funding from the Research Council of Norway.
What predicts asylum migration flows?
In a new study published in Nature Communications, PRIO researchers use a machine-learning analysis framework to identify leading predictors of contemporary asylum migration to the European Union. The study finds little evidence that climatic shocks or deteriorating economic conditions predict near-future arrivals of asylum seekers in Europe, contrasting commonly held notions of economy- and climate-driven asylum migrants. Instead, indicators capturing levels of political violence and violations of physical integrity rights in countries of origin are important predictors of asylum migration flows, suggesting that migrants are continuing to use the asylum system as intended – i.e., to seek international protection from a well-founded fear of persecution – despite the fact that most applicants ultimately are rejected refugee status. The article is a product of the ERC-funded CLIMSEC project and is published as open access.
Schutte, Sebastian; Jonas Vestby, Jørgen Carling &
Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climatic
conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, Nature Communications 12:
2067.
Successful Doctoral Defense by Jonas Vestby
Jonas Vestby has defended his thesis today, 9 March 2018: 'Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future' at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Oslo.
His trial lecture:
Explaining Ethnic Conflict: Micro-, Meso- and Macro-Approaches
Young PRIO Researcher Wins Student Paper Award at ISA
We are proud to congratulate two young PRIO scholars, who are on top of the list for the Jacek Kugler Political Demography and Geography Student Paper Award, which is awarded at the ISA conference starting in Baltimore tomorrow.
The winner of this year's award is Ida Rudolfsen with her paper “Igniting the Fire? State Institutions, Food Price Shocks and Urban Unrest”, which was considered the best graduate student paper within the Political Demography and Geography Section presented at last year's ISA conference.
The runner-up is Jonas Nordkvelle with his paper “Randomized Rain Falls on Political Groups: Discovering an Average Causal Effect of Climate Variability on Armed Conflict Onsets”.
PRIO Spearheads New Climate-Conflict Project
The project will focus on the causal connection between adverse environmental change and discrete social upheavals, with examples including the ongoing civil war in Syria and the early Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.
PRIO-GRID 2.0 Launches at grid.prio.org
The latest version of the PRIO-GRID is now available at grid.prio.org, featuring several new dimensions and types of data, making it one of the best standardized platforms for visualization and analysis of conflict data.
Current projects
All projects
ANTICIPATE: Anticipating the Impact of Armed Conflict on Human Development
Enabling Politically Sensitive Climate Change Impact Assessments for the 21st Century (POLIMPACT)
Online Dangerous Speech and Violence (ODAS)
The Legacy of Racial Violence
QuantMig: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy
