Syrian refugees, dwindling aid and a push for return

We are living through a complex global crisis in which several negative trends reinforce one another. Millions of Syrian refugees, whether they are living in Syria’s neighbouring countries (3.8 million) or displaced within Syria itself (5.5 million), find themselves in the centre of this storm.

The global picture is chaotic, and almost every trend appears to be moving in the wrong direction.

Rising prices, falling aid

The Iran war and the war in Yemen have persistently pushed oil prices to around USD 100 per barrel, often above that level. The war in Ukraine has had a similar effect. Both conflicts have also contributed to rising food prices worldwide. This primarily affects the world’s poorest people, many of whom are already living far below the poverty threshold.

At the same time, Western donor countries are becoming less willing to provide foreign aid. Not only are their own costs increasing, but growing global insecurity is leading them to prioritize military rearmament. Between 2024 and 2025, international aid fell by 23.1%. In short, this complex global situation means that prices and needs are increasing, while the funds available to meet those needs are shrinking.

Refugees and internally displaced people

In the Middle East, Syrian refugees have found themselves caught in a difficult predicament. The Syrian government is prioritizing the integration of the country’s 5.5 million internally displaced people through its ambitious “no camps and no tents” policy.

In the short to medium-term it is clear that the country does not have the capacity to receive large numbers of returning refugees. There are 3.8 million of them in the Middle East alone.

Much of Syria lies in ruin after fourteen years of civil war. Vast urban areas resemble Gaza, and large parts of the country are contaminated by landmines and undetonated explosives.

Enormous questions remain unanswered: Where would returning refugees live? Which schools would their children attend? What jobs would be available to them?

Unfortunately, we are still in a situation where short-term solutions must take priority. As many as 70 per cent of Syria’s population requires humanitarian assistance.

Yet neighbouring countries also lack the capacity to provide refugees with what they need.

Worst in Lebanon

The situation is most severe in Lebanon. The country is experiencing an ongoing Israeli occupation and is facing an economic catastrophe. The destruction caused by the war between Hezbollah and Israel has been immense.

Lebanon also has the dubious distinction of hosting one of the largest refugee populations per capita in the world, with approximately 1.5 to 2 million refugees, representing more than 20 per cent of the population. At the same time, until recently it also had one of the highest rates of internal displacement per capita, with 1.2 million internally displaced people in April 2026, equivalent to around 15 per cent of the population.

Fortunately, many of Lebanon’s internally displaced people have been able to return home. However, any escalation in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel could trigger another large-scale internal displacement crisis.

To put the issue of refugee returns into context, it is worth noting that, at its worst, only Syria rivalled Lebanon in terms of displacement levels. Syria currently has around 5.5 million internally displaced people, representing roughly 20 per cent of the population.

It is easy to become numb to the numbers, but the statistics concerning Syrian refugees deserve to be read more than once. One can imagine the debate in Norway, or any other Western country, if 20 per cent of the population were refugees.

It is therefore unsurprising that tensions have emerged between the main host countries, Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, which want to see far more refugees return home, and the Syrian authorities, who are focused on rebuilding the country and assisting internally displaced people.

The European debate

The tension between prioritizing Syria’s recovery and encouraging refugee returns is also playing out in Europe.

As populist right-wing parties, and in Germany’s case the far right, gain increasing political influence, pressure is growing for Syrian refugees to return home. This creates tensions both with the Syrian authorities and with the major host countries in the region, which insist that their Syrian refugee populations return before refugees currently living in Europe do so.

This is both a refugee debate and an aid debate. If host countries are to continue accommodating millions of Syrian refugees, they will require substantial international support. This brings us back to the issue of aid.

With shrinking aid budgets, rising prices and growing needs, donor countries are being forced to make difficult choices.

One of the dilemmas is how to strike a balance between supporting Syria, where reconstruction is only beginning, and supporting host countries, where refugees often live in extremely poor conditions. The needs are enormous in both places, making it difficult to allocate resources based solely on humanitarian need.

Right-wing populism

For years, right-wing populists have insisted on the political slogan, “help them where they are”. In reality, however, they do not want to do so. The same parties that oppose immigration to Europe also tend to oppose foreign aid.

In practice, their slogan would be more accurately expressed as “help them neither here nor there”.

The continued rise of right-wing nationalism across Europe therefore intensifies the dilemmas surrounding aid priorities and deepens tensions between regional host countries and the Syrian authorities.

These debates are no longer confined to right-wing populist movements. They have spread across much of the political spectrum.

This is very bad news for the host countries in the region, for Syria, and above all for the Syrian refugees themselves.

• Jørgen Jensehaugen is a Research Professor at PRIO
• This text was first published in Norwegian by Panorama Nyheter