A new study published in The Lancet journal, co-authored by PRIO Research Professor Håvard Hegre, finds that the human cost of the conflict in the Gaza Strip from October 2023 to January 2025 was significantly higher than previously recorded by local health authorities.
This is the first independent, representative survey conducted in the territory during the conflict. Using a representative sample of about 2,000 families across Gaza, researchers estimate that at least 75,200 people have died violently during the war. This figure is significantly higher than the approximate 49,000 deaths reported over the same period by the Gaza Ministry of Health.
The research also suggests about an additional 8,000 people were killed non-violently during the period, linked to factors such as malnutrition and illness. Women, children and elderly people made up more than 56 percent of those violently killed, underscoring the toll on civilians.
The study’s findings have renewed scrutiny of mortality reporting in conflict zones and fuel ongoing debates about methodological approaches to counting war-related deaths. Håvard Hegre has previously highlighted systematic under-reporting in conflict datasets and the importance of robust statistical methods for estimating fatalities.
“The best and most reliable sources for conflict data only account for deaths that they are certain about. Since there is so much uncertainty, this leads to a systematic under-reporting” said Hegre.
As head of PRIO’s groundbreaking Violence & Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS), Hegre’s research emphasizes the challenges of capturing complete death tolls in violent settings.
Researchers caution that even these revised Gaza figures are likely conservative, as they cover only up to January 2025 and do not include later phases of the conflict or long-term indirect mortality. The study is the first population-representative mortality survey of its kind in Gaza, and its authors call for further research to fully understand the scale of the human cost.
