VIEWS: Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System

Led by Håvard Hegre

Oct 2019 –

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) is a cutting-edge research consortium between PRIO and Uppsala University that brings together a suite of interrelated projects to study and predict the risk of political violence and its societal impacts.

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) brings together three distinct but interrelated research projects: the political Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) and the interdisciplinary conflict impact projects ANTICIPATE and Societies at Risk.

The Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS) is a publicly available, data-driven forecasting system. It generates monthly predictions of the number of fatalities in impending state-based conflict 1-36 months ahead, as well as probabilistic assessments of the likelihood that given conflict thresholds will be met – for each country and 55×55 km location in Africa and the Middle East.

ANTICIPATE at Peace Research Institute Oslo and Societies at Risk at Uppsala University are multi-disciplinary research programs that bring together scholars from public health research, economics, political science, peace and conflict research, and natural disaster science to study the impacts of armed conflict on human development. Seeking to provide a comprehensive, forward-looking assessment that allows for well-informed decision-making and anticipatory action, the two programs will focus on six interlinked systems: economy, health, social psychology, water availability, forced displacement, and political institutions. The programs will, in close collaboration with each other, pool the insights of specialists from the Peace Research Institute Oslo, Uppsala University, Karolinska Institutet (KI), V-Dem at the University of Gothenburg, the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), International Security and Development Center (ISDC), and the University of Pittsburgh.

Other ongoing projects within the VIEWS research consortium are VIEWS-PIN: People In Need, Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict (UFFAC), ViEWS-Proof of Concept, and the VIEWS Prediction Challenge.

VIEWS and its components are directed by Research Professor Håvard Hegre at the Peace Research Institute Oslo and at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research at Uppsala University.

See for details about the research collaboration and a visualization tool.

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