Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of this century. As a consequence, the world should continue to grow ever more peaceful. In a new policy brief – launched at theJPR 50th anniversary celebrations today – and the first one out of the PRIO Conflict Trends project – we offer more in-depth comments on the following points:

• The number of civil armed conflict has declined in the last decades.
• We forecast that this downward trend will continue over the next 40-90 years.
• Conflicts will occur mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia in the coming decades.
• Climate change or geopolitical shifts are unlikely to dramatically affect this general positive trend.