From 19-20 October VIEWS members presented at the “Stability and Change” project workshop titled “From Processes to Models” which focused on how statistical models are derived from underlying processes. The workshop was co-hosted by VIEWS Director Håvard Hegre and included VIEWS members David Randhal, Mihai Croicu, and Chandler Williams.

David Randahl presented his current work, “Using Markov models to predict escalation and de-escalating violence: Initial evidence and paths forward”. Mihai Croicu presented his work on “Forecasting Spatially Disaggregated Armed Conflict using Rebel Group Data”.