Dec 2022 –
Armed conflict is human development in reverse. The full scale of conflicts' impacts remains unknown, however, and fragmentation of research into multiple academic fields limits our understanding.
This multi-disciplinary project brings together scholars from economics, epidemiology, political science, and conflict research to study the impacts in much more detail and comprehensiveness than earlier studies. It takes a risk-analysis perspective, assessing the expected impact as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, and consider effects at both the macro and micro level, on economies, health, and political institutions.
It will model exposure to conflict events by accounting for how effects of observed, overt violence are transmitted to locations far from the violence itself and over time, identify conditions that make local communities, marginalized groups, and women particularly vulnerable to the effects, and study how conflict increases their vulnerability to other shocks such as natural disasters. The objective of the project is to model hazard as a probability distribution over the predicted number of direct deaths from violence in locations across the world, exposure as a model for the extent to which local populations are affected by this likely violence, and vulnerability how exposure is translated into adverse human development impact for these populations.
The results will be coordinated in the form of a monthly updated early-warning system, expanding the well-established ViEWS model, to also alert observers to particularly detrimental occurrences of violence. Throughout, the project will study how the various impacts and vulnerabilities identified work to reinforce each other, and formulate policy recommendations for parties seeking to reduce the impact on human development.
Do you want to contribute to a new and original area of research, developing forecasting systems and tools? Do you want to work closely with a larger interdisciplinary team of researchers studying the impact of armed conflict on human development?
PRIO conducts research for a more peaceful world, and is committed to using the best of what technology has to offer to achieve that purpose. Having been at the forefront of data-driven social science research since its foundation in 1959, PRIO seeks to strengthen its data science competence by inviting applications for a Senior Developer. The successful candidate will join the team developing VIEWS – the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System that seeks to develop an early-warning system for the humanitarian impacts of armed conflict.
Please read the full announcement here
Deadline 30 November
Håvard Hegre has been awarded a European Research Council Advanced Grant of EUR 2.5 million for the project ANTICIPATE - Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development.
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