The world will continue to grow ever more peaceful, predict Håvard Hegre and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård in the first policy brief of the new Conflict Trends series published by PRIO. The brief is the first output from the PRIO Conflict Trends project, which aims to answer questions related to the causes of, consequences of and trends in conflict.
The Conflict Trends project is led by Henrik Urdal and builds on the existing competence of PRIO with a strong emphasis on research and new data analysis. It works to produce thorough and quality-based analysis for the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs through a series of short and informative policy briefs within different thematic schemes, while also focusing on more specific, country-based conflicts. In addition to describing the actors and main tendencies in conflict, the briefs will include maps with an overview of conflict events, trends in conflict activity over time, and other relevant statistical indicators.
The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. In the new policy brief, titled Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict (Conflict Trends 1-2014), Hegre and Nygaard forecast that this downward trend will continue over the next 40-90 years, as factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics are projected to continue to improve.