Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict (UFFAC)

Led by Håvard Hegre

Sep 2023 – Sep 2025

The ‘Uncertainty of Forecasting Fatalities in Armed Conflict’ project (UFFAC) will be the first comprehensive attempt at forecasting fatalities in armed conflict while taking uncertainty into account.

UFFAC will develop models forecasting the number of fatalities in armed conflict. It will have a special emphasis on how to assess the uncertainty of such forecasts, exploring multiple sources of uncertainty as well as reviewing the extent to which uncertainty can be completely assessed. UFFAC will also build on and expand the political Violence Early-Warning System (ViEWS).

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