Armed conflict is a global problem that threatens human life and the safety of human beings. In order to reduce the suffering due to armed conflict, we need to know where, when, why and how wars are fought and monitor the most important consequences that conflicts have. Artificial intelligence (AI) is able to perform complex tasks such as visual perception, recognition of meaning in text and decision making. The paper suggests some ways AI can help to strengthen the information basis for decision making, provide useful risk analysis and support decision making through scenario analysis. In particular, it gives a brief overview of AI’s use in conflict forecasting and scenario modelling. These approaches will help to improve the monitoring, anticipation and ultimately anticipatory action of armed conflicts.
- This PRIO Paper has been previously published in Spanish by the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) as a chapter in the CIDOB Handbook 2026. CIDOB has generously allowed its republication in English with some light edits here. To read it in Spanish, see: Hegre, Håvard (2025) 'La Inteligencia Artificial: ¿al servicio de la paz? [How Artificial Intelligence Can Support Peace]'. In: Francesc Fàbregues & Oriol Farrés (eds) Anuario Internacional CIDOB 2026 [CIDOB International Yearbook 2026]. Barcelona: CIDOB.
