Climate change as a driver of conflict

Climate change can increase conflict risk or severity, but primarily in contexts marked by high vulnerability to climate extremes and high underlying conflict risk. Key drivers of vulnerability include low income, climate-sensitive livelihoods (e.g., rainfed agriculture, pastoralism), fragile or exclusionary governance, and violent conflict. Accelerating impacts of climate change may make climate a more relevant conflict driver in the future, but deep uncertainties exist regarding how societies will adapt and respond to climate change. Efforts to reduce near-term climate-driven conflict risk should address drivers of vulnerability; however, climate change mitigation is the only sustainable strategy to minimise risk in the long term.