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Putin attempts to shift nuclear brinkmanship

Russian President Vladimir Putin is shifting from overt nuclear brinkmanship to using Russia’s nuclear energy program as a “peaceful” tool of influence.

Moscow downplays drone incursion on Poland

The incursion of at least 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace on September 9–10 produced plenty of shock but hardly any awe.

Three parades and four perspectives on history

Three autocrats that do not make an alliance, but join forces in setting for the apparently disunited West and to US President Donald Trump a set of hard challenges.

Putin raises the stakes of rejecting peace deal

Three years and seven months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all international initiatives to bring the war to an end have seemingly discontinued.

Putin’s Vladivostok Forum underwhelming and alarming

The outcomes of wars of attrition are typically decided by the capacity to mobilize material resources. The Kremlin appears to believe, however, that impressions matter more than real capabilities and the depth of public support.

Putin seeks People’s Republic of China’s support for war-to-victory stance

The PRC is marking the 80th anniversary not only of the defeat of Japanese aggression during World War II, but also the end of the long century of perceived humiliation by various imperialist powers — one of which was, in fact, Russia.

Putin tries to build himself a position of strength

Expectations for the third round of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul on July 23 had been very low, and the forty-minute-long talks delivered exactly that.

Putin’s game of war-making and bargaining comes to end

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s fake readiness to negotiate the end of Moscow’s war against Ukraine amid its relentless attacks on Ukraine appears to be coming to a breaking point.

Putin’s preemptive maneuvering around NATO summit is cut off

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, investors from most parts of the world have stopped coming to Russia, so the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum has turned into a show of fake innovation.

Moscow ponders reconfigured Middle East, finding few openings

The cessation of hostilities in the Gulf on 25 June was as surprising for Moscow as Israel’s strike on Iran on 13 June. Russia’s attempts to assess the consequences of the surge of the air war have to take into account apparent analytical miscalcu...

Russia’s influence in Middle East takes hit from Israeli strikes

Israel’s decision to launch a series of missile and bomb strikes on Iran on June 13 was a shocking surprise for Moscow, where the working assumption had been centered on the presumably protracted U.S.-Iranian talks on the limitations of the nuclea...

Russian retribution for daring Ukrainian strike is postponed. Perhaps indefinitely

The scale and character of Russian retaliation in the aftermath of the daring Ukrainian attack on four Russian aviation bases on June 1 have yet to be revealed.

Putin holds firm to war course, conjuring mirage of victory

The fever of diplomatic battles around Russia’s war against Ukraine in the first three weeks of May has broken, leaving few meaningful results.

Russia’s maximalist demands undermine peace talks despite mounting domestic strains

The key goal of the most recent round of talks between Russia and Ukraine, held on Monday, June 2, in Istanbul, is supposed to be an exchange of memoranda on the conditions for ending the war.

Putin Uses Victory Day Spectacle to Mask War Fatigue and Court Partners

The propaganda machine was switched to the maximum volume, turning the sombre memories of tragic battles and painful sacrifices into a celebration of militarism.

Putin Weighs Risks of U.S. Readiness to Move on From Stalled Peace Efforts in Ukraine

The Kremlin has used delays and distractions to gain all the time and concessions available to it before seriously engaging in peace talks, or at least a genuine pause, in its war against Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin will soon be comp...

Russia May be Switching Tactics From Sabotage of Peace Deal to Bargaining

On April 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a three-day ceasefire in his war against Ukraine in the lead-up to the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Second World War (President of Russia, April 28). The ceasefire is due to b...

Decision Point for Putin is Set Too Close for His Comfort

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Steven Witkoff, U.S. President Donald Trump’s key negotiator, last Friday, in St. Petersburg, likely to buy himself more time before making any concessions. On Sunday, Russian missiles struck the Ukrainian...

Global Trade War Does Not Diminish Pressure on Russia to End Its War

Russia is not directly affected by the new U.S. trade tariffs. The effects on its economy are profound, while the political effects are open to interpretation.

Russia Refuses to Make Meaningful Step on Road to Peace

U.S., European, and Ukrainian peace-making policies are now aligned at a possible breakthrough point, as differences in means and methods transmute into complementarities. This fast evolution starkly contrasts with the immobility of Russia’s posit...

Moscow Changes War Rhetoric but Stays War Course

The whirlwind of U.S.-initiated diplomatic activity in the last two weeks has compelled the Kremlin to alter the tone of its messaging on confrontation with the West and even the substance of its far-reaching propaganda campaign. The cliché of “An...

Triumphalism in Moscow About Setback in Peace-Making for Ukraine Could be Short-Lived

Moscow’s mouthpieces competed to celebrate and ridicule the individuals involved in the February 28 talks in Washington, D.C. between Ukraine and the United States. To the surprise of many, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy left the White Ho...

Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks

Jubilation in Moscow after the phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on February 12 has given way to contemplations of the consequences and even to confusion caused by the barrage of statements...

Trump’s Logic of Deal-Making Versus Putin’s Logic of War-Making

As the Ukraine War approaches the grim mark of three years, it appears both ripe for an armistice and impossible to bring to an end. For US President Donald Trump, this war is a senseless waste of people and resources, which should be stopped imme...

Conversations on Ending the War in Ukraine Grow Louder and Emptier

The first week of the “Golden Age” of U.S. policy announced by President Donald Trump registered a stream of messages from the White House on the need to bring the war in Ukraine to an end (White House, January 20). The Kremlin duly responded with...

Moscow Sticks to Peace Denials Despite War Exhaustion

The Russian offensive in Donbas has slowed in the last few weeks to a crawl, and in the Kursk oblast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to expel the Ukrainian forces remains unfulfilled. This deadlock, in which both sides suffer heavy casua...

Russian Counter-Offensive in the International Arena Has Lost Momentum

One of the key goals for 2024 that President Vladimir Putin had apparently set at the end of the second year of the Ukraine war was to execute a sustained foreign policy counter-offensive to reduce Russia’s international isolation to irrelevance. ...

Tuesday, 17 Dec 2024


New Podcast Episode Explores Russian Approaches to Peace Processes Amid Escalating Ukraine Crisis

As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, questions about the prospects for peace and the shifting dynamics of international involvement take center stage in the latest episode of PRIO’s Peace in a Pod.

Tuesday, 10 Dec 2024


PRIO in the Republic of Korea for its Action with Women and Peace Conference

On December 10th, PRIO Research Director Louise Olsson and GPS Coordinator Stine A. Bosheim contributed to the Action with Women and Peace Conference (AWP), in Seoul, Republic of Korea.

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