This second workshop on the topic is organized jointly by the CSCW, the World Bank and the Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Oxford University. Monday, June 19th:8:30- 9:30 am: Continental Breakfast at Hotel9:30-10:00 am: Opening Session Welcome: Håvard Hegre, PRIO

Petter Wille, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Opening Remarks: Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank 10:00 – 12:30 pm: First Session: Types and Aspects of Conflict Chair: Gjermund Saether

Håvard Hegre and Clionadh Raleigh: 'Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War. A

Geographically Disaggregated Analysis'.

Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler: ‘Grand Extortion: Coup Risk and the Military as a

Protection Racket’

Phillip Killicoat: ‘Cheap guns, more war? The economics of small arms’

Discussants: Nic Marsh, Eva Busza 12:30 – 1:30 pm: Lunch1:30 – 3:00 pm: Second Session: Fragile States Chair: Anke Hoeffler

Clionadh Raleigh: ‘Neighbouring States, Conflict & Instability’

Aderoju Oyefusi: ‘Propensity to Civil Disobedience and the Probability of an Armed

Struggle in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria’

Lars-Erik Cederman & Luc Girardin: 'Beyond Fractionalization: Mapping Ethnicity onto

Nationalist Insurgencies'

Discussants: Marta Reynal-Querol, Indra de Soysa 3:00 – 3:30 pm: Tea/Coffee3:30 – 5:00 pm: Third Session: The Delicate After Peace Chair: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Ibrahim Elbadawi and Cristina Bodea: ‘Manifestations of Violence: Civil Wars, Coups

and Others’

Tove Grete Lie, Helga Malmin Binningsboe and Scott Gates: 'Post-Conflict Justice and

Sustainable Peace'

Discussants: Håvard Hegre, Laura Bailey 6:00 pm: Dinner cruise on the Oslo Fjord hosted by Norwegian Ministry of ForeignAffairs. (Warm, casual clothing suggested). 2 Tuesday, June 20th:9:00 – 10:30 am: Fourth Session: Politics, Governance and Service Delivery Chair: Håvard Hegre

Phil Keefer: ‘Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies’

Colin Jennings: ‘Game theory of post-conflict identity politics’

Scott Gates and Kaare Strøm: 'Moral Hazard, Adverse Selection and Power-Sharing'

Discussants: Karl-Ove Moene, Gary Milante 10:30 – 11:00 am: Tea/Coffee11:00 – 12:30 pm: Fifth Session: Risks and Coping Mechanisms Chair: Scott Gates

Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler and Mans Soderbom: ‘Post-Conflict Risks’

Luka Biong Deng: ‘Are Non-poor Households always Less Vulnerable? The Case of

Households exposed to Protracted Civil War in Southern Sudan’

Richard Akresh and Philip Verwimp: ‘Rwandan Crop Failure and Rural Coping


Discussants: Phil Keefer, Ian Bannon 12:30 – 1:30 pm: Lunch1:30 – 3:00 pm: Sixth Session: Macroeconomics of Post-Conflict Chair: Jaime de Melo

Victor Davies: ‘Post-conflict Capital Flight and Return’

Ibrahim Elbadawi, Linda Kaltani & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel: ‘Post-Conflict Aid, Real

Exchange Rate Adjustment and Catch-up Growth’

Discussants: Paul Collier, Majak d’Agoot 3:00 – 3:30 pm: Tea/Coffee3:30 – 6:00 pm: Plenary Session: From Results to Policy Introduction by Chair: TBA (10 minutes)

Mattner & Milante: Presentation (30 minutes)

  • An Introduction to the Post-Conflict Policy Process

  • Targeting Research to Inform the Process

  • A Preliminary Outline of the Project Policy Paper

Discussants: (5-10 minutes each) (60 minutes)

Ian Bannon, World Bank (CPRU)

Laura Bailey, World Bank (LICUS)

Paul Collier, University of Oxford

Majak d'Agoot, Government of National Unity, Sudan

Ibrahim Elbadawi, World Bank (DEC-RG)

Scott Gates, PRIO

Eva Busza, UNDP

Open Discussions: (40 Minutes)

Concluding Remarks by the Chairman: (10 minutes)