ISBN: 978-024167-893-0

Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

University of Essex & PRIO

Read more about this book at www.penguin.co.uk

The rise of Asia constitutes a great global transformation. The largest shift in global income distribution since the industrial revolution has profound political implications. If development is a core goal, high growth outside the West and the emergence of a new global middle class would seem something to be celebrated. Yet, in its wake we see rising political discontent in the West, and a turn from global neoliberalism towards protectionism, economic sanctions, and increased nationalism and xenophobia. The rise of Trump illustrates how globalization benefitted elites but undermined the middle class and aggrieved deplorables, further accentuated by the global financial crisis. A growing China is simply too large to be integrated into a US dominated order on terms that elites can accept. The response becomes a turn towards geopolitical tensions and protectionism. Policy proposals that at first seem outlandish such as tariffs and harsher sanctions increasingly become mainstream. It is unclear what may replace globalization in a multipolar world, but Milanovic suggests neoliberalism in one country or blocs as a possible alternative. This remarkable book highlights the profound changes as the West becomes relatively less dominant, even if perceptions often remain stuck in the past. At its best, it successfully combines Milanovic’s detailed data-driven insights into evolution of income distributions and inequality with macroscopic perspectives and historical trends. On occasion the book gets sidetracked, as in an extensive discussion of Rawls’ Law of the Peoples (fairly described as outdated), while there is little discussion of the extensive work on trade and conflict since Montesquieu, Smith, or Hobson. But this important contribution to the emerging world order deserves a wide readership.