Håvard Hegre: Bibliography
169 publications
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Journal article in World Development
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
Journal article in Environmental Research Letters
Christopher Blattman (2021) Why We Fight
Book review in JPR Book notes
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
Popular article in PRIO Blogs
Lessons from an escalation prediction competition
Journal article in International Interactions
United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition
Journal article in International Interactions
Early-warning Systems for Political Violence: How Should We Define our Prediction Targets?
Book chapter in Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention. Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention
Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel
Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
Forecasting Fatalities
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Journal article in International Studies Quarterly
Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme
Popular article in Aftenposten
Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020
Conflict Trends
ViEWS 2020: Revising and evaluating the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Norge bør fronte fredsbevarende operasjoner
Popular article in Dagens Næringsliv
Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
Journal article in Sustainability
Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2019
Conflict Trends
Introducing the UCDP Candidate Events Dataset
Journal article in Research and Politics
Civil Society and the Democratic Peace
Journal article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations
Journal article in The Journal of Politics
ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
U.N. peacekeeping really can be effective. Here’s how we tabulated this
Popular article in Washington Post
The determinants of democracy: a sensitivity analysis
Journal article in Public Choice
Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future
PhD thesis
Introduction: Forecasting in peace research
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Peacekeeping works: Evaluating the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations
Conflict Trends
