Håvard Hegre: Bibliography
183 publications
How artificial intelligence can support peace
PRIO Paper
Violent and non-violent death tolls for the Gaza conflict: new primary evidence from a populationrepresentative field survey
Journal article in The Lancet Global Health
The underreported death toll of wars: a probabilistic reassessment from a survey with UCDP coders
Journal article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
Forecasting electoral violence
Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
Response to DellaPergola and Zlochin
Journal article in The Lancet Global Health
Revisiting “A Structural Theory of Imperialism”
Journal article in Journal of Global Security Studies
The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
Edited volume
Introduction to peace and the sustainable development goals
Book chapter in The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
Trends in peace and the SDGs: empirical overview of trends in peace and the SDGs over the past 60 years
Book chapter in The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
The impacts of armed conflict on climate action (SDG 13): a review of the literature
Book chapter in The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
Peace and SDG4: quality education
Book chapter in The Elgar Companion to Peace and the Sustainable Development Goals
The impacts of armed conflict on human development: A review of the literature
Journal article in World Development
Bin-Conditional Conformal Prediction of Fatalities from Armed Conflict
Journal article in Political Analysis
The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction challenge: Predicting the number of fatalities in armed conflict, with uncertainty
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
Forecasting electoral violence
Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
La Inteligencia Artificial: ¿al servicio de la paz?
Book chapter in Anuario Internacional CIDOB 2026 (2026 CIDOB International Yearbook)
A review and comparison of conflict early warning systems
Journal article in International Journal of Forecasting
Predicting armed conflict using protest data
Journal article in Journal of Peace Research
The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways
Journal article in Environmental Research Letters
Christopher Blattman (2021) Why We Fight
Book review in JPR Book notes
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
Popular article in PRIO Blogs
Lessons from an escalation prediction competition
Journal article in International Interactions
United they stand: Findings from an escalation prediction competition
Journal article in International Interactions
Early-warning Systems for Political Violence: How Should We Define our Prediction Targets?
Book chapter in Taking Stock of Early Warning for Atrocity Prevention. Report from the 2021 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention
Moving from Reaction to Action: Anticipating Vulnerability Hotspots in the Sahel
Forecasting fatalities in armed conflict: Forecasts for April 2022-March 2025
Forecasting Fatalities
Can We Predict Armed Conflict? How the First 9 Years of Published Forecasts Stand Up to Reality
Journal article in International Studies Quarterly
Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme
Popular article in Aftenposten
Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020
Conflict Trends
