Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggest that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.
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Research Professor at PRIO; Professor of Political Science, NTNU
Senior Researcher, PRIO; Assistant Professor, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University
Research Professor; Professor Emeritus of Political Science, NTNU
Senior Researcher and Managing Editor, Journal of Peace Research
Post-doctoral Fellow in Economics at NTNU
Professor of Human Geography, University of Sussex
Assistant Professor in Political Science at NTNU
Research Director; Research Professor; Editor, Journal of Peace Research
Associate Senior Researcher
The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) conducts research on the conditions for peaceful relations between states, groups and people.