Doctoral Researcher – Forecasting

Do you want to contribute to a new and original area of research, developing forecasting systems and tools? Do you want to work closely with a larger interdisciplinary team of researchers studying the impact of armed conflict on human development? The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) invites applications for the position of Doctoral Researcher on the ANTICIPATE project.

This PhD fellowship is financed as a part of the European Research Council grant to PRIO for the project “ANTICIPATE: Anticipating the impact of armed conflict on human development” led by Research Professor Håvard Hegre. The project seeks to understand when and where we can expect adverse humanitarian impacts of armed conflict, with a heavy emphasis on predictive modeling. It is multidisciplinary, bringing together conflict scholars that work on the patterns of armed conflict, political scientists, economists, experts from public health and epidemiology and other disciplines that work on various humanitarian impacts of armed conflict. The methodologists from these fields as well as from statistics and machine learning research, develop methods to bind together the hazard and exposure to armed conflict with vulnerabilities to their impacts in a predictive risk modelling framework.

A complete description of the project will be made available to interested candidates upon request by contacting Department Manager Ilze Gehe.

About the position

We seek applicants with solid training in statistical or machine-learning methodology, with a disciplinary background from either of the fields mentioned below. Successful applicants will have developed a PhD project proposal that is explicitly linked to one or more of the work packages in the project description. The candidates are encouraged to read the background material closely before writing their PhD project description.

The Doctoral Researcher will work closely with a larger interdisciplinary team of researchers at PRIO, as well partners at Uppsala University. Furthermore, the Doctoral Researcher is expected to work closely with the VIEWS team that maintains and develops a continuously updated prediction model for armed conflict and its impacts.

The Doctoral Researcher will receive supervision at PRIO from Research Professor Hegre, who brings considerable experience in doctoral supervision, in addition to the supervision and training received by the university granting the PhD degree. Progress on the doctorate will be supported through presentations at internal seminars, inclusion of the candidate in appropriate PRIO initiatives and research groups, and opportunities to present work at international academic conferences and workshops. A progress plan will be agreed upon between the candidate and the supervisors. There will be opportunities for developing and publishing ideas and for wider career development.

Qualifications and expectations

Applicants must have the following qualifications:

  • A Master’s degree, or the equivalent in a relevant discipline in Social Sciences, Computer Science, Public Health, Medicine, Psychology, Natural sciences working with the human side of natural resources or natural disasters
  • Strong skills in statistics or machine learning methods
  • Experience with predictive modeling
  • Good knowledge of programming languages, preferably Python
  • Be able to use English as their main working language

In addition, the following qualifications are desirable:

  • Previous research experience, preferably in relevant aspects of social science
  • Interest in interdisciplinary research
  • Experience with teamwork

PRIO is located in attractive premises in central Oslo. The successful candidate will be expected to reside in Oslo and will have a workplace at PRIO. However, as PRIO is not a degree awarding institution, the Doctoral Researcher will be responsible for applying to and enrolling in a compatible PhD program. Different institutions may have different requirements, and candidates are encouraged to make enquiries about their eligibility for enrolling in a given program in advance. Tuition fees are not covered by the project.

The starting date for the position is 1 August 2023 or as soon as possible thereafter. The employment is for a three-year, full-time position as Doctoral Researcher. Candidates are offered the alternative option of a four-year contract, combining the work on the PhD, with other project work. The annual starting salary for a Doctoral Researcher at PRIO is NOK 528 502. Employees are offered a defined benefit pension plan membership in the Norwegian Public Service Pension fund.

The candidate should have an interest in PRIO’s broader mission of conducting high-quality academic research on questions relevant to the promotion of a more peaceful world.

PRIO is an equal opportunity employer and values staff diversity.

Applying for the position

Applications should be written in English and include the following:

  1. A cover letter (1 page)
  2. A PhD project description (max 4 pages , including references), outlining the:
    • main research questions, methodology and theoretical considerations
    • expected innovation or ‘value-added’ of the PhD project (theoretical and/or practical)
    • relationship of the PhD project to the larger ANTICIPATE project
    • progress plan including an overview of milestones/outputs
  3. A Curriculum Vitae
  4. Certified copies of transcripts from higher education
  5. Contact details for two referees

The application should be submitted by way of an online form.

The deadline for applications is 1 March 2023.

Further information

For further information about the position, please email Research Professor Håvard Hegre. To request the complete description of the ANTICIPATE project, or for questions regarding the application process, please contact Department Manager Ilze Gehe via or mobile +47 473 79 165.

For more information about PRIO’s ongoing research, check the website.

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