ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Hegre, Håvard; Matthias Basedau; Michael Colaresi; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde; Lisa Hultman; Naima Mouhleb; Desirée Nilsson; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Espen Geelmuyden Rød; Gerald Schneider; Nina von Uexkull & Jonas Vestby (2019) ViEWS: A political Violence Early-Warning System, Journal of Peace Research 56(2).

This article presents ViEWS ()a political Violence Early-Warning System) that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts atthe country and sub-national level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS breaks the forecasting problem into a range of constituent thematic parts and modelling approaches, employing ensemble model averaging to optimize its predictions of the risk of organized violence. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the longterm behavior of established political violence, as well as di usion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems.

Authors

Desirée Nilsson

Desirée Nilsson

Guest Researcher/Lecturer, Uppsala University

Espen Geelmuyden Rød

Espen Geelmuyden Rød

Research Assistant

Gerald Schneider

Gerald Schneider

Professor of Political Science and Dean, Department of Politics and Management, University of Konstanz

Hanne Fjelde

Hanne Fjelde

Senior Researcher

Håvard Hegre

Håvard Hegre

Research Professor

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Senior Researcher (on leave)

Jonas Vestby

Jonas Vestby

Senior Researcher

Matthias Basedau

Matthias Basedau

Guest Researcher

Michael Colaresi

Michael Colaresi

Associate Professor, Michigan State University

Naima Mouhleb

Naima Mouhleb

Researcher & Research Assistant

Nina von Uexkull

Nina von Uexkull

Associate Senior Researcher

Research Groups