Jul 2018 – Jun 2023
This project seeks to understand why some non-violent uprisings help foster democratization while others do not, and will examine how dissident tactics can help promote transitions to democracy and democratic consolidation.
Nonviolent movements have often succeeded in unseating dictators, but short-term success does not guarantee long-term success. Many initially successful challenges have failed to produce democratic transitions. Movements have often faded away quickly after initial successes, followed by a return to authoritarian rule and increased repression. In other cases, nonviolent movements have fostered strengthened civil society participation and stable democracies.
This project examines how dissidents can promote democratic transitions and consolidation. Whereas existing research often focuses on whether predetermine factors are conducive to democratization, we emphasize the influence of the choices of actors and their consequences. Dissident movements tend to emphasize the importance of their own strategies, forward planning, and choosing the best tactics to engage civil society in order to secure a transition to democracy.
We develop a framework for how actors and choices in nonviolent dissent shape the prospects for democracy. We distinguish between different stages with distinct strategic challenges in pro-democracy campaigns, including the initial contestation, the removal of the dictator and the more long-term phase in the aftermath of a first challenge. The project will allow us to understand the incentives for actors and different social groups to support peaceful democratic competition, as well as practical questions with regards to the specific tactics that can help secure democracy. We apply a multi-method approach, combining statistical analysis of historical data (including new and more detailed information collected by the project), interviews with activists, experiments, as well as simulation to explore the outcomes of theoretical models. This allows us to assess the causes of observed outcomes and evaluate counterfactual questions such as whether different campaign strategies could have been more effective.
The Research Council of Norway announced this morning that PRIO will receive TOPPFORSK funding for the project: "Securing the victory? Understanding dynamics of short-run and long-term success in popular uprisings and democratization".
Journal Article in European Journal of International Relations
Journal Article in Political Research Quarterly
Popular Article in Morgenbladet
Popular Article in Aftenposten
Popular Article in Aftenposten
Popular Article in NRK Ytring
Conference Paper
Journal Article in Political Analysis
Journal Article in Journal of Politics
Journal Article in Mobilization
Journal Article in The Economics of Peace and Security Journal
Conference Paper
Monograph
Journal Article in Journal of Peace Research
Journal Article in Comparative Political Studies
Journal Article in Comparative Political Studies
Book Chapter in Computational Conflict Research
Popular Article in Morgenbladet
Journal Article in Political Studies Review
Popular Article in Agenda Magasin
Popular Article in VG
Popular Article in VG
Popular Article in Political Violence at a Glance
Popular Article in Aftenposten
Popular Article in VG
Popular Article in The Washington Post's Monkey Cage
Journal Article in Journal of Politics
Journal Article in Terrorism and Political Violence
Journal Article in European Journal of International Relations
Journal Article in International Organization
Popular Article in Klassekampen
Popular Article in Political Violence @ a Glance
Journal Article in Public Choice
Conference Paper
Journal Article in American Journal of Political Science