Jonas Vestby

Senior Researcher

Jonas Vestby
Email: jonves@prio.org
Work phone: 22 54 77 89
Twitter: @JonasNordkvelle
Jonas Vestby is on leave until 24 February, 2019.

Background

​​​I am interested in how we can learn from quantitative data in social sciences, especially data with a strong spatio-temporal component. Recurrent themes are modeling social phenomena, causal inference, forecasting and data quality.

I am currently working on projects that study the relationships between climate, climate change, agricultural performance and various conflict outcomes. My Phd, which I defended in March 2018 was entitled "Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future". The main conclusion in the dissertation was that causal effects of climate variability on conflict is dependent on context and conflict type. 

Particularly, conflict types where organized actors challenging capable state militaries tend not to be affected. Rather, effects can be observed when violence is used for material gains in areas of limited statehood. When thinking about future effects of climate change on conflict, it is just as important to think about how the context will change as how climate exposure will change. The Phd also identify several methodological issues related to causal inference, and attempt to solve some of these.

Languages spoken:

Norwegian and English.

Education:

2018: Phd, Political Science, University of Oslo.

2010-2012: MA, Political Science, University of Oslo.

2004-2007: BA, International Politics and Philosophy. NTNU and Univ. of Oslo.

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Nordkvelle, Jonas; Siri Aas Rustad & Monika Salmivalli (2017) Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization, Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3.
Hegre, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug; Katherine V. Calvin; Jonas Nordkvelle; Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Elisabeth Gilmore (2016) Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters 11(5): 054002.
Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexkull (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Jonas Nordkvelle & Håvard Strand (2014) Peace research – Just the study of war?, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 145–158.

PhD Thesis

Vestby, Jonas (2018) Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future. PhD thesis, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo, Oslo.

Popular Article

Vestby, Jonas; Ida Rudolfsen & Halvard Buhaug (2018) Fører matmangel til mer krig? [Does food insecurity lead to conflict?], Bistandsaktuelt, 27 April.

PRIO Paper

Buhaug, Halvard & Jonas Nordkvelle (2014) Climate and conflict: A Comment on Hsiang et al.'s Reply to Buhaug et al., PRIO Paper. Oslo: Peace Research Institute Oslo.