Regions and Powers

Coordinator: Pavel K. Baev

​​​The Regions and Powers research group examines the interplay between conflict dynamics in particular regions and the shifts in global power balance caused by the rise of new state-actors. Stimulating critical discussion and brainstorming, the group seeks to bring together theory-informed and policy-relevant analysis of two major themes:  

1. The evolving character of conflicts and the experiences in preservation of peace in several dynamic regional settings

2. The expanding interests of non-Western state-actors and their ambitions for altering the agenda on major international affairs.

​In the first theme, our goal is to compare the dissimilar and often unique combinations of drivers that determine the trajectory of the long-going and fast-evolving violent conflict in Afghanistan; the management of inter-state tensions and the minimization of the risk of war in East Asia; the existence of unrecognized quasi-states and the transformation of civil wars in the Caucasus. We will also make frequent inroads into the trouble spots in the Greater Middle East – from Kurdistan to Darfur.

In the second theme, our main interest is in assessing the influence of the so-called ‘rising powers’ (often presented as the BRICS group) on the reconfiguration of the international political and economic agenda in the time of crisis, and their impact on dealing with the regional crises (examined in the first theme). While Western political attention is increasingly focused on China, we will grant it due attention, but we will concentrate on the behaviour of India, Russia, and Turkey, and seek to develop expertise on Brazil.

The key research questions the group will be dealing with are:

  • What is really new in the ‘new wars’?
  • How are the regional powers using their growing economic and political might for gaining global profile and challenging Western dominance?
  • How does the ‘state sovereignty’ concept change under the impact of technological globalization and the influence of ‘rising powers’?
  • How do history and culture shape regional patterns of political contestation and (non)intervention in conflicts?
  • Are transnational militant groups in their own right posing a fundamental threat to existent states, or is the effectiveness of such groups a reflection of their alliances with state actors?
  • In what ways do internal conflicts impact on global power contestation and what new instruments are used for managing these conflicts?
  • How did the long peace in East Asia emerge in the 1980s and what are the factors sustaining or eroding it?
  • Could Russia and Turkey forge a meaningful partnership for maximizing their impact on conflict development in the Middle East and the Black Sea area?
  • What means could be used for managing the unique concentration of inter-state conflicts and civil wars in the Caucasus?
  • How do regional powers and organizations interact with the United Nations during periods of conflict and post-conflict intervention?​


Current Projects

Past Projects

Research Group News

Upcoming Events

Past Events


Recent publications

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The impacts of the Syrian intervention on Russian strategic culture, Security Insights, 33. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The Kremlin tries to exorcise the memory of the Belin Wall, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The White Whale Chooses Freedom: Hard Choices in Opposing Russian Dominance in the Arctic, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 622. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey and Russia, in Alpaslan Ozerdem, ed., The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics. London: Routledge (413–424).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey's ambiguous strategic rapprochement with Russia, in Ersen, Emre; & Seckin Kostem, eds, Turke's Pivot to Eurasia. New York: Routledge (48–63).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia ponders the burden of its "victory" in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia ponders the burden of its "victory" in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian top brass gain greater political weight, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 October.

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Jensehaugen, Jørgen (2019) A Palestinian window of opportunity? The PLO, the US and the Iranian hostage crisis, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies. DOI: 10.1080/13530194.2019.1661646.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The evolving Russian challenge to the EU energy security, Turkish Policy Quarterly 18(2).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Revisiting the Problem of Post-Soviet Revolutions: The Armenian Revolution Makes Some Difference, International Relations and Diplomacy 7(8): 363–369.
Jensehaugen, Jørgen (2019) Smokescreen Diplomacy: Excluding the Palestinians by Self-Rule, The Middle East Journal 73(2): 224–241.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Threat assessments and strategic objectives in Russia's Arctic policy, Journal of Slavic Military Studies 31(1).
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia’s Ambivalent Status-Quo/Revisionist Policies in the Arctic, Arctic Review on Law and Politics 9(4): 408–424.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) The military dimension of Russia's connection with Europe, European Security 27(1): 82–97.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Three turns in the evolution of China-Russia presidential pseudo-alliance, Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies 6(1): 1–15.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) What Made Russia Indifferent to the Revolution in Armenia, Caucasus Analytical Digest. DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000277024(104): 20–24.
Waage, Hilde Henriksen & Jørgen Jensehaugen (2018) Å forhandle bort Palestina [Negotiating away Palestine], Babylon - Nordisk tidsskrift for Midtøstenstudier 16(2): 142–153.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia and China come together and drift apart in the New Cold War, Tamkang Journal of International Affairs 20(4): 39–90.
Tønnesson, Stein & Pavel K. Baev (2017) Stress-Test for Chinese Restraint: China Evaluates Russia’s Use of Force, Strategic Analysis 41(2): 139–151.
Baev, Pavel K. & Stein Tønnesson (2017) The Troubled Russia–China Partnership as a Challenge to the East Asian Peace, Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences. DOI: 10.1007/s40647-017-0166-y: 1–17.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) The Russian Navy is Adrift in the Syrian Doldrums, International Relations and Diplomacy 5(11): 643–649.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) What Drives Moscow's Military Adventurism?, Current History 115(783): 251–260.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) "Hybrid War" Is Bad for Business: Russia Seeks in Vain to Upgrade Its Quasi-Alliance with China, Journal of Defense Studies and Resource Management 4(2): 1–6.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Cohesion and Flexibility of NATO's Response to Russia's Problem, The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs 25(1): 22–31.
Nayan, Rajiv (2016) Focusing the debate on the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons: An Indian perspective, International Review of the Red Cross 97(899): 815–830.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's pivot to China goes astray: The impact on the Asia-Pacific security architecture, Contemporary Security Policy 37(1): 89–110.
Charalambous, Giorgos; Bambos Papageorgiou & Adonis Pegasiou (2015) Surprising Elections in Exciting Times? Of Proxies and Second-Order Events in the 2014 European Election in Cyprus, South European Society and Politics 20(3): 403–424.
Charalambous, Giorgos (2015) No Bridge over Troubled Waters: The Cypriot Left Heading the Government, 2008–2013, Capital & Class 39: 265–286.
Tønnesson, Stein (2015) Deterrence, interdependence and Sino-US Peace, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 297–311.
Baev, Pavel K. & Stein Tønnesson (2015) Can Russia keep its special ties with Vietnam while moving closer and closer to China?, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 312–325.
Rolandsen, Øystein H. (2015) Small and Far Between: Peacekeeping Economies in South Sudan, Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 9(3): 353–371.
Tønnesson, Stein (2015) The South China Sea: Law Trumps Power, Asian Survey 55(3): 455–477.
Rolandsen, Øystein H.; Helene Molteberg Glomnes; Sebabatso Manoeli & Fanny Nicolaisen (2015) A year of South Sudan’s third civil war, International Area Studies Review 18(1): 87–104.
Rolandsen, Øystein H. & David M. Anderson (2015) Violence in the Contemporary Political History of Eastern Africa, International Journal of African Historical Studies 48(1): 1–12.
Gürel, Ayla & Harry Tzimitras (2015) Beyond Energy: Remarks about the Direction of Turkish-Russian Relations and Their Implications for the Cyprus Problem, Euxeinos: Governance and Culture in the Black Sea Region(18): 28–38.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia as Opportunist or Spoiler in the Middle East?, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs 50(2): 8–21.
Hatay, Mete (2015) ‘Reluctant’ Muslims? Turkish Cypriots, Islam, and Sufism, Cyprus Review 27(2): 43–63.
Charalambous, Giorgos & Iasonas Lamprianou (2015) The (Non) Particularities of West European Radical Left Party Supporters: A Comparative Study of Left Party Families, European Political Science Review. DOI: 10.1017/S1755773915000429: 1–26.
Kim, Woosang & Scott Gates (2015) Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 219–226.
Gürel, Ayla & Laura Le Cornu (2014) Can Gas Catalyse Peace in the Eastern Mediterranean?, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs 49(2): 11–33.
Bryant, Rebecca (2014) Living with Liminality: De Facto States on the Threshold of the Global, Brown Journal of World Affairs 20(2): 125–143.
Kolås, Åshild (2014) Degradation Discourse and Green Governmentality in the Xilinguole Grasslands of Inner Mongolia, Development and Change 45(2): 308–328.
Deka, Arunima (2013) Indigenous People and the International Discourse: Issues and Debates, Journal of Humanities and Social Science (IOSR-JHSS) 17(1): 87–99.
Heian-Engdal, Marte; Jørgen Jensehaugen & Hilde Henriksen Waage (2013) ‘Finishing the Enterprise’: Israel's Admission to the United Nations, International History Review 35(3): 465–485.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) How Afghanistan Was Broken: The Disaster of the Soviet Intervention, International Area Studies Review 15(3): 249–262.
Jensehaugen, Jørgen; Marte Heian-Engdal & Hilde Henriksen Waage (2012) Securing the State: From Zionist Ideology to Israeli Statehood, Diplomacy & Statecraft 23(2): 280–303.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russian Energy as a Challenge and a Bonus for European Security, Studia Diplomatica 64(1): 91–100.
Jensehaugen, Jørgen & Hilde Henriksen Waage (2012) Coercive Diplomacy: Israel, Transjordan and the UN—a Triangular Drama Revisited, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 39(1): 79–100.
Tiller, Stian Johansen & Hilde Henriksen Waage (2011) Powerful State, Powerless Mediator: The United States and the Peace Efforts of the Palestine Conciliation Commission, 1949–51, International History Review 33(3): 501–524.
Kolås, Åshild (2011) Naga Militancy and Violent Politics in the Shadow of Ceasefire, Journal of Peace Research 48(6): 781–792.
Waage, Hilde Henriksen (2011) The Winner Takes All: The 1949 Island of Rhodes Armistice Negotiations Revisited, Middle East Journal 65(2): 279–304.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2010) Caught in the Middle? Regional Perspectives on Afghanistan, Comparative Social Research 27: 277–305.
Simonsen, Sven Gunnar (2001) Nationalism in the Russian political spectrum: Locating and evaluating the extremes, Journal of Political Ideologies 6(3): 263–288.
Simonsen, Sven Gunnar (2000) Putin's Leadership Style: Ethnocentric Patriotism, Security Dialogue 31(3): 377–380.

PhD Thesis

Nilsen , Marte (2012) Negotiating Thainess: Religious and National Identities in Thailand's Southern Conflict. PhD thesis, Lund Studies in History of Religions, Lund University, Sweden.


Tønnesson, Stein (2017) Explaining the East Asian Peace: A Research Story. Copenhagen: NIAS Press. Asia Insights.
Sinha, Uttam (2016) Riverine Neighbourhood: Hydro-Politics in South Asia. New Delhi: Pentagon Press.
Tønnesson, Stein (2016) Den östasiatiska freden [The East Asian Peace]. Stockholm: Makadam. RJ:s skriftserie.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg & Shahrbanou Tadjbakhsh (2016) A Rock Between Hard Places: Afghanistan as an Arena of Regional Insecurity. New York: Oxford University Press.
Roy, Kaushik (2015) Warfare in Pre-British India - 1500 BCE to 1740 CE. Abingdon: Routledge.
Roy, Kaushik (2015) Frontiers, Insurgencies and Counter-Insurgencies in South Asia. Abingdon: Routledge.
Kolås, Åshild & Monika Thowsen (2005) On the Margins of Tibet: Cultural Survival on the Sino-Tibetan Frontier. Seattle, WT: University of Washington Press.

Book Chapter

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey and Russia, in Alpaslan Ozerdem, ed., The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics. London: Routledge (413–424).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Turkey's ambiguous strategic rapprochement with Russia, in Ersen, Emre; & Seckin Kostem, eds, Turke's Pivot to Eurasia. New York: Routledge (48–63).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) La strategie maritime de la Russie [Russia's maritime strategie], in de Montbrial, Thierry; & Dominique David, eds, Ramses-2020: Un Monde Sans Boussole?. Paris, France: IFRI (88–94).
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia's Arctic and Far Eastern strategies, in Glen Howard, ed., Russia's Military Strategy and Doctrine. Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation (75–101).
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) The Russian ‘Pivot’ to Asia-Pacific: Geo-economic Expectations and Disappointments, in Mikael Wigell, ed., Geo-economics and Power Politics in the 21st Century: the Revival of Economic Statecraft. London: Routledge (75–88).
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Examining the execution of Russian military-security policies and programs in the Arctic, in Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen, ed., Russia's Far North: the Contested Energy Frontier. London: Routledge (113–126).
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) European Assessments and Concerns About Russia’s Policies in the Middle East, in Stephen Blank, ed., Russia in the Middle East. Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation (131–153).
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) L'armée russe : état des lieux [The Russian army: state of affairs], in Thierry de Montbrial, ed., Ramses 2018. Paris: Dunod (132–137).
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia's Decline, in S. Enders Wimbush, ed., Russia in Decline. Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation (100–120).
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia: A Declining Counter-Change Force, in Svante E. Cornell, ed., The International Politics of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict. New York: Palgrave Macmillan (71–88).
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Politika EC na Yuzhnim Kavkaze v tumane gibridnoi voiny [EU policy in the South Caucasus in the fog of hybrid war], in Alexander Iskandaryan, ed., Kavkaz-2014 (The Caucasus - 2014, Yearbook). Yerevan: The Caucasus Institute (100–113).
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Future approaches to the Greater Middle East, in Hiski Haukkala, ed., Russian Futures: Horizon 2025. Paris: EU ISS (LV-LXI).
Tønnesson, Stein (2016) The Tonkin Gulf Agreements: a model of conflict resolution?, in Jenner, C. J.; & Trong Thuy Tran, eds, The South China Sea: a Crucible of Regional Cooperation or Conflict-Making Sovereignty Claims?. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (151–170).
Sinha, Uttam (2016) Towards riparian rationality: An Indian perspective, in Bajpai, Kanti; Huang Jing; & Kishore Mahbubani, eds, China-India Relations: Cooperation and conflict. Abingdon: Routledge (167–181).
Sinha, Uttam (2016) Challenges to the Himalayan Watershed, in Kumar, Niraj; George van Driem; & Phunchok Stobdan, eds, Himalayan Bridge. New Delhi: Knowledge World Publishers.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) The interplay between the "Hybrid war" narrative and the "Sovereignty-Territory-Resources" discourse, in Riccardo Mario Cucciola, ed., The Power State Is Back? the Evolution of Russian Political Thought After 1991. Rome: Reset DoC (98–107).
Papadakis, Yiannis & Mete Hatay (2015) The Cultures of Partition and the Partition of Cultures, in Demetriou, Nicoletta; & Jim Samson, eds, Music In Cyprus. Farnham: Ashgate (19–36).
Roy, Kaushik (2015) British-India and Afghanistan: 1707-1842, in Kaushik Roy, ed., Chinese and Indian Warfare - from the Classical Age to 1870. Abingdon: Routledge (91–120).
Tønnesson, Stein (2015) The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea: Why Has It Not Brought More Peace and Cooperation?, in Le, Thuy Trang; & Trong Thuy Tran, eds, Power, Law, and Maritime Order In the South China Sea. Lanham: Lexington Books (91–100).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The Conflict of War and Politics in the Soviet Intervention into Afghanistan, 1979-1989, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building In Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (113–130).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia Gambles on Resource Scarcity: Energy Intrigues in a Time of Political Crisis, in Steven, David ; Emily O'Brien; & Bruce Jones, eds, The New Politics of Strategic Resources: Energy and Food Security Challenges In the 21St Century. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press (245–260).
Demetriou, Olga (2015) Grand Ruins: Ledra Palace Hotel and the Rendering of ‘Conflict’ as Heritage in Cyprus, in Stig Sørensen , Marie Louise ; & Dacia Viejo Rose, eds, War and Cultural Heritage: Biographies of Place. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (183–207).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia reinvents itself as a rogue state in the ungovernable multi-polar world, in Lipman, Maria; & Nikolay Petrov, eds, The State of Russia: What Comes Next?. London: Palgrave Macmillan (Pivot) (69–85).
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2015) Heart or Periphery? Afghanistan's Complex Neighbourhood Relations, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building In Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (245–279).
Gates, Scott; Kaushik Roy; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Continuity and Change in Asymmetric Warfare in Afghanistan: From the Mughals to the Americans, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building in Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (21–42).
Roy, Kaushik & Peter Lorge (2015) Introduction, in Roy, Kaushik; & Peter Lorge, eds, Chinese and Indian Warfare - from the Classical Age to 1870. Abingdon: Routledge (1–14).
Tunander, Ola (2014) Diskurs, identitet och territorialitet: Kjellens tankar om ett europeisk statsfôrbund [Discourse, identity and territoriality: Kjellen's thoughts on a union of European states], in Edstrôm, Bert; Ragnar Bjôrk; & Thomas Lunden, eds, Rudolf Kjellen. Geopolitiken Och Konservatismen. Stockholm: Hjalmarson & Högberg (203-223).
Kolås, Åshild (2014) Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding: Ideas, Approaches and Debates, in Kumar, Samrat Schmiem; & Priyankar Upadhyaya, eds, Peace and Conflict - the South Asian Experience. New Delhi: Cambridge University Press India (1–22).
Jacobsen, Elida K. U. & Samrat Schmiem Kumar (2014) The Plurality of Peace, Non-Violence and Peace works in India, in Kumar, Samrat Schmiem; & Priyankar Upadhyaya, eds, Peace and Conflict - the South Asian Experience. New Delhi: Cambridge University Press India.
Jacobsen, Elida K. U. (2013) Preventing, predicting or producing risk? India's national biometric identification, in Kolås, Åshild; & Jason Miklian, eds, India's Human Security: Lost Debates, Forgotten People, Intractable Conflicts. New York: Routledge (135–148).
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2012) Blodig Møteplass i et Splittet Nabolag, in Dyndal, Gjert Lage; & Torbjørn L. Knutsen, eds, Exit Afghanistan. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget (203–211).
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2011) A Peace Nation in the War on Terror: The Norwegian Engagement in Afghanistan, in Hynek, Nik; & Péter Marton, eds, Statebuilding in Afghanistan: Multinational Contributions to Reconstruction. London: Routledge (157–173).
Harpviken, Kristian Berg(1998) The Hazara of Aghanistan: The Thorny Path Towards Political Unity, 1978-1992, in Atabaki, Touraj; & O'Kane, John, eds, Post-Soviet Central Asia. : I. B. Tauris(177–198).

Edited Volume

Beri, Ruchita (ed.) (2016) India and Africa: Common Security Challenges for the Next Decade. New Delhi: Pentagon Press.
Charalambous, Giorgos; & Christophoros Christophorou, eds, (2016) Party-Society Relations in the Republic of Cyprus: Political and Societal Strategies. London : Routledge. Advances in Mediterranean Studies.
Roy, Kaushik (ed.) (2015) Chinese and Indian Warfare - From the Classical Age to 1870. Abingdon: Routledge.
Anderson, David M.; & Øystein H. Rolandsen, eds, (2015) Politics and Violence in Eastern Africa: The Struggles of Emerging States. London & New York: Routledge.
Kolås, Åshild; & Zha Luo, eds, (2013) Pastoralism in Contemporary China: Policy and Practice. Beijing: Social Science Academic Press.
Miklian, Jason; & Åshild Kolås, eds, (2013) India's Human Security: Lost Debates, Forgotten People, Intractable Challenges. London: Routledge. Routledge Studies in South Asian Politics.

Non-refereed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia builds up and cuts down its naval power, Russian Analytical Digest. DOI: 10.3229/ethz-b-000349199(237): 6–9.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The re-emerging nuclear dimension in Russian-European relations, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) China-Russia: A pseudo-alliance in limbo, Policy Forum.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) La France, une opportunite pour Vladimr Poutine [The French opportunity for Vladimir Putin], Alternatives Economiques(113): 34–35.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Will the US and Russia trade blows over Syria?, Newsweek.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's perilous glorification of militarism, The National Interest: 1–2.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin's New Eastward Pivot, The National Interest: 1–2.
Jumbert, Maria Gabrielsen; Kristian Hoelscher; Benjamin de Carvalho & Pinar Tank (2014) Brazil: An Aspiring Global Power, Government Gazette: 80–82.
Kolås, Åshild (2012) What's up with the territorial council?, Seminar New Delhi: a Monthly Symposium(640): 2–7.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2010) Troubled Regions and Failing States: Introduction, Comparative Social Research 27: 1–23.

Popular Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The Kremlin tries to exorcise the memory of the Belin Wall, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia ponders the burden of its "victory" in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia ponders the burden of its "victory" in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian top brass gain greater political weight, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin's indifference to Turkish offensive in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin's Eurasian ambitions and propositions ring hollow, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) No fanfare for Russia's reduced-scale strategic exercise, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin tries to find Asia beyond China, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin leans on Russian "grandeur", leaving Russians vexed, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Summer of discontent unsettles Putin's rule, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian opposition defies Putin regime's repressions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia ushers in a post-pseudo-arms-control world, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian-Turkish missile deal enacted by weakening autocrats, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Another Russian sea tragedy: Unlearned lessons obscured by secrecy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia's stagnation pushes Kremlin to renew pressure on Georgia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) As Putin's grasp on power weakens, his foreign policy is slackening, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian economic forum - all about China, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian intrigues in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Control over Russian political agenda slipping from Putin's hands, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia seeks to exploit escalating troubles in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin tries to score three diplomatic victories in the Far East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia undecided and apprehensive about elections in Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Putin Lauds Arctic Cooperation While Boosting Regional Militarization, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia Sets an Anniversary Ambush for NATO, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The Kremlin tries to pivot attention to Syria upon release of Mueller Report, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Fifth anniversary of the land grab that cost Russia its future, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Five issues Putin preferred not to talk about, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Three conferences and a new set of Russian sanctions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia enters a treacherous new post-arms control world, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The Syrian predicament turns precarious for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia's pessimistic prospects for 2019, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Fruitlessly Prepares for New Sanctions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin trapped in an escalatory spiral of his own making, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin's month-long diplomatic tour highlights Russia's growing irrelevance, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia cannot count on political easing after US elections, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) European angst about Trump's INF Treaty withdrawal, Order from Chaos, 29 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia reconsiders consequences of INF Treaty breakdown, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) US-Russia rolling row as a new norm, ISPI Commentary, 24 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Sanctions not Spurring Domestic Rally-Around-the-Flag Effect, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Failed Space Launch Illuminates Russia’s Multiplying Misfortunes, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin’s Anti-Israeli ‘Surge’ in Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Four setbacks and a tragedy in Russia's Syrian intervention, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Facing International Outrage and Domestic Ridicule, Putin Assumes Super-Confident Stance, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin pivots from Western pressure, but finds scant solace in the East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Tenth anniversary of the war that wounded Georgia and derailed Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) US-Russian discord over Syria deepens after discussions in Helsinki, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Did Putin overplay his hand in Helsinki?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Trump's bombast in Brussles and London will not help Putin in Helsinki, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin hopes to dictate success in Helsinki, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) In Helsinki, Putin can grant Trump great success, of sorts, Order from Chaos, 6 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Social tensions in Russia build up as government turns miserly, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Rejoices in Celebration of Soccer, but Bad Memories Loom, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Reminding Russia About Its Lost Seat at the G7 Table, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin Tries to Exploit Anti-Trumpism to Advance His Economic Agenda, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin’s Big Moment Is Reduced to a Familiar Irrelevance, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Retreats From International Developments, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 April.
Jensehaugen, Jørgen (2018) Et tvetydig forhold [An ambiguous relationship], Dagens Nærinsliv, 24 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin’s Leadership Is Reduced to Indecisive Posturing, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) US Again Calls Russia’s Bluff on Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) ‘Black Friday’ Sanctions Against Putin’s Inner Circle, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Escalates Novichok Crisis, Shifting Onus to US, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Is Not Just ‘Toxic,’ But Deadly Poisonously Toxic, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Missiles of March: A political means of last resort for Putin, Order from Chaos, 7 March.
Baev, Pavel K.; Michael O'Hanlon & Ryan Crocker (2018) A Modest But Enduring Syria Strategy for President Trump7 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin’s Answer to Russia’s Many Problems: Missiles and More Missiles, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) New Russian Question: Who Is Mr. Prigozhin?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia stumbles in the fog of Syrian war, Order from Chaos, 21 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) New ‘Hybrid’ Plots Revealed in Russian Anti-Western Policy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Experiences Olympic Blues, and Patriotic Bravado Brings No Solace, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Has the Scare in Moscow Over the US ‘Kremlin List’ Evaporated?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia Finds Itself Reduced to Irrelevance at Davos, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Nuclear weapons come first for Russia, Ukens analyse, den Norske Atlantershavskomite, 25 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Revisionist Russia Is the Most Nuclearized Power in the World, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Russia’s ‘Victory’ in Syria is Debunked, Derailed and Defeated, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Putin's road from Damascus: After the "victory", what?, Order from Chaos, 8 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Olympic Fiasco Illuminates Putin’s Weakness, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia Prepares for More Extreme Confrontations With United States, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Declaring Victory in Syria, Putin Stands to Lose the Elusive Peace, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin Looks Forward to Meeting With Trump in Vietnam, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin hosts another Valdai to draw attention away from Russia's stagnation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Moscow treats new US strategy for Iran as great opportunity, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia is steered back toward petro-stagnation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia tries to conclude its Syrian venture, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia seeks to rebuild its international respectability, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin goes East, but offers no solution for North Korean problem, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russian-US relations: Stumbling and slipping along road of rigid confrontation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Can Moscow benefit from the unfolding "Russia-Gate" in Washington?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Corruption spoils every attempt to cooperate with Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia taking stock on Monday after Hamburg, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Four downward turns in US-Russia relations, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin speaks but gives few answers, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) New wave of protests in Russia, PONAES Eurasia commentary, 19 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Mess in the Middle East opens few opportunities for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Politics dominate but cannot invigorate economy in Putin's Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Moscow spoils every opportunity to improve relations with US, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia celebrates its newly revived old-fashioned militarism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Moscow tries to prod, exploit European disunity, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia absent from North Korean crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Kremlin reels from US missile strike on Syria, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin demands improved Russia-US relations, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Moscow spins overextended intrigues in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) The problem with the Russian connections is corruption, not espionage, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia struggles to come to terms with the past, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) As US-Russia relations stagnate, Europe fears a jilted Moscow, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia's little war in Ukraine doesn't help Kremlin to befriend Trump, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Much ado about Trump's call with Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia and China part company at Davos, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Putin's dirty diplomacy fails to breach the sanctions wall, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Doping and Rosneft tarnish the remnants of Russia's reputation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) In Foreign Policy Pause, Putin Tinkers With Domestic Corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin Will Find the World According to Trump a Tough Habitat, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) What This Election Means for U.S. Foreign Policy and next Steps, Order from Chaos, 9 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) As US elections conclude, Putin rediscovers moderation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin Casts Shadow Over US Presidential Campaign, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian Military Bases in Cuba and Vietnam: A Real Threat?, CGI Analysis, 18 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Moscow gambles on raising the stakes - in Syria and across the board, Order from Chaos, 7 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Younger Crowd Will Not Rejuvenate Putin’s Court, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian Elections Overshadowed by Rampant Corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Latest Kerry-Lavrov Deal on Syria Destined to Unravel, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) A String of Intrigues on Putin's Eastern Tour, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia Underperforms at Pivoting, Policy Forum, 2 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia’s Economy Deteriorates as Putin Focuses on Squabbles Among Siloviki, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Dialogue With Russia Produces Universal Frustration, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's Pivot to China Is Reduced to High-Level Bonhomie, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Moscow Promises Responses to US and NATO Activities, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 June.
Sinha, Uttam & Sanjay Gupta (2016) Hope Floats for India, The Pioneer, 12 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence, Order from Chaos, 2 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin Commits to Countering New Strategic "Theat" to Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Virtual Militarism Grows Into Real Peril for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia Seeks to Reenergize Its Pivot to the East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia’s Aggressive-Repressive Policies Bring No Long-Term Gains, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) The precarious China-Russia partnership erodes security in East Asia, Contemporary Security Policy blog, 22 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Newly-Formed National Guard Cannot Dispel Putin's Multiple Insecurities, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Nuclear Security and Arms Control Are Non-Issues for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) US Diplomacy Feeds Putin’s Sense of Self-Righteousness, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin's Not-Quite-Withdrawal Signifies a Strategic Retreat, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 March.
Baev, Pavel K. & Sergey Aleksashenko (2016) Did Putin win in Syria? Or is he cutting his losses?, Order from Chaos, 21 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) A Lost Year for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) For Moscow, Talks Are About Sowing Discord, not Solving Conflicts, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) With Russia overextended elsewhere, Arctic cooperation gets a new chance, Order from Chaos, 18 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia Bargains and Bluffs for Breakthrough in Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 January.
Sinha, Uttam (2016) Paris climate summit: An agreement for humanity, Dr. Syama Prasad Mookerjee Research Foundation (SPMRF), 12 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia’s Economic Degradation as Putin’s New Norm, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Unfriended: How Russia's Syria quagmire is costing it Middle Eastern allies, Order from Chaos, 7 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline With Military Bravado, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin cannot swallow the Turkish insult – and cannot retaliate, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's Russia seeks place in the international anti-terrorism coalition, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) What is Russian military good for?, Order from Chaos, 4 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's desperation deepens as his blunders accumulate, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 October.
Hatay, Mete (2015) "Samson Kompleksi" ve İntihar Saldırıları [The "Samson Complex" and Suicide Attacks], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 18.10.2015, 18 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's Syrian intrigue has yielded zero divedends, European Leadership Network, 1 October.
Hatay, Mete (2015) 1912 Limasol Olayları ve "Kollektif Histeri" [1912 Limmasol Events and "Collective Hysteria"], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 30.09.2015, 30 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Will Russian military intervention in Syria continue after today?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 September.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Osmanlı ve İngiliz Döneminde Toplumsal Cinsiyet [The Gender Politics During Ottoman and British period], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 27.09.2015, 27 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) How Russia and America make the same mistakes in Syria, Order from Chaos, 11 September.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Kıbrıs’ta Kolonyal Fuhuş ve Hijyen Politikaları [Colonial Politics of Prostitution and Hygine], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 06.09.2015, 6 September.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Hem Modern Hem de "Hanım Hanımcık" [Both Modern and "Proper Little Lady"], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 04.09.2015, 4 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia's Arctic illusions, Order from Chaos, 27 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia's reputation sinks precipitously in international opinion polls, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) How long can Putin continue doing nothing?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The China factor in Russian support for the Iran deal, Order from Chaos, 21 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The air tragedy that condemned Putin's Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Greek agreement and Iranian deal leave Russia disappointed and irrelevant, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 July.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Kıbrıs ve "Siyonist Projeler" [Cyprus and "Zionist Projects"], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 12.7.2015, 12 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Greece's Russian fantasy; Russia's Greek delusion, Order from Chaos, 8 July.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Nazi Almanyası Yahudiler ve Kıbrıs [Nazi Germany Jews and Cyprus], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 5.7.2015, 5 July.
Hatay, Mete (2015) 35. Paralel ve Göç Hareketleri [35th Paralel and Forced Migration], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 21.6.2015, 21 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia is not strong, and Putin is even weaker, Order from Chaos, 8 June.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Cumhuriyet'i Kimse Sevmemişti [No One Wanted the Republic], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 7.6.2015, 7 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Weakening Russia Curtails Population’s Access to Publicly Available Information, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 June.
Hatay, Mete (2015) "Sıçan Kral" ve Londra Antlaşmaları ["The King Rat" and the London Agreements], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 31.6.2015, 31 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The Kremlin grows nervous about the future, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 May.
Hatay, Mete (2015) TMT: "Evet biz öldürdük" [TMT: "Yes We Killed them"], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 24.5.2015, 24 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Dubious otcome of Kerry's meeting with Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Dubious Outcomes of Kerry’s Meeting With Putin in Sochi, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 May.
Hatay, Mete (2015) TMT'nin Kara Listesi [The Black List of TMT Underground Organization], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 17.5.2015, 17 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) After the swaggering celebration, a "Now what?" moment for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's political pause amid national mobilization, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Gazprom must compromise on EU charges, but Putin cannot, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia needs a Middle east crisis, Order from Chaos, 22 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The faltering Russian economy makes a renewed Ukraine offensive more likely, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Iranian deal leaves Russia in deeper isolation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 April.
Hatay, Mete (2015) Celal Hordan Dosyası [The Celal Hordan File], Poli, Havadis Newspaper, 05/04/2015., 5 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Apocalypse a bit later: The meaning of Putin's nuclear threats, Order from Chaos, 1 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's conveniently imperfect memory, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 March.
Tunander, Ola (2015) Massakern i Benghazi [The Massacre in Benghazi], Ny Tid, 25 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Two summits and a military exercise, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 March.
Hatay, Mete (2015) 'Asrın Projesi'nin 60 Yıllık Tarihi [The History of the "Project of the Century"], Poli, Havadis Newspaper,22/03/2015., 22 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's disappearing act may be a sign of leadership crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Free rein of special services makes Russia ungovernable, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Murder that revealed truth, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) After Debaltseve - Is there a chance for ceasefire?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Diplomacy delivers another pause for struggling Ukraine and sinking Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia makes haste in severing ties with Europe, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Amid mounting domestic troubles, Putin tries to regain initiative in Eastern Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Futile Hope for the Dubious Summit in Astana, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia enters new year mired in troubles, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Ukrainian Triumph Is a Major Setback for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Iran’s New Flexibility Exposes Russia’s Arrogance and Irrelevance, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Lawlessness as the Central Pillar of Putin’s Authority, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Moscow Becomes an Intersection for Two Waves of Anti-Regime Protests, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Valdai Vision and Sochi Olympics Preparations Underscore Failure, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin in Denial About Economic Stagnation, and in a Rage About Arctic Sovereignty, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Machine of Repression Destroying the Legitimacy of His Regime, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Tries to Build on the Success of His Syrian Coup, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Neither the G20 Summit, Nor the Moscow Elections Went According to Putin’s Script, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Policy of Procrastination Expires at the Junction of Russia’s Crises, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Problem-Rich Context for the Obama-Putin Non-Summit, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Xenophobia Becomes a Thorn for Putin’s Bubble, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Local Politics in Moscow Goes Global, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Navalny Becomes Only Real Thing in Fake Russian Politics, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Disappearing Sense of Talking to Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Issue of Neutrality in Putin’s Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russian Economy Stagnates and Simulates Success on the Wane of Putin’s Watch, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Stalin’s Shadow over the Post-Reset Meeting Between Putin and Obama, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Turkish Turmoil Adds Unpredictability to Putin’s Creeping Coup, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia’s Predicament and the Plight of One Economist, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Spy Story: An Episode in Russia’s Confusion, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) What Surkov’s Ousting Signifies About Russia’s Course in Syria, What Surkov’s Ousting Signifies About Russia’s Course in Syria, 13 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Radicalization and Simulation Intertwine in Putin’s Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Adopts Stalin’s Style, but Remains a Late Oligarch’s Legacy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Cyprus Test for Russian Foreign and Economic Policies, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Chagrin and Ambivalence in Putin’s Foreign Policy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Looks for an Escape from the Dead End of His Presidency, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Capital Flight from Russia Tells a Tale About Regime Failure, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Disarray Among Putin's Elites Deepens as Russia's Self-Isolation Progresses, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 February.
Eck, Kristine (2013) Myanmar's democratic transition: Doomed to stall, Al Jazeera, 12 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Militarism is a poor fit for Putin's 'patriotic' kleptocracy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia takes pause after incredible year of discoveries and disappointments, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 January.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2012) Økende konfliktnivå i det fjerne Østen? [Increasing conflict in the far East?], Ukens Analyse,, 26 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Dirty elections grant Putin disappearing power, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russian Foreign Policy Takes a Sensible Course on Iran and in the Arctic, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2000) Putin's Honeymoon Coming to the End, Johnson's Russia List, 17 February.

PRIO Report

Kolås, Åshild; Uttam Kumar Sinha; Jason Miklian; Ruchita Beri; Elida K. U. Jacobsen; Reshmi Kazi; Priyankar Upadhyaya; Rajiv Nayan; Anjoo Sharan Upadhyaya; & Ida Roland Birkvad (2018) India in the World: Emerging Perspectives on Global Challenges, PRIO Project Summary. Oslo: PRIO.
Bryant, Rebecca; & Mete Hatay (2013) Soft Politics and Hard Choices: An Assessment of Turkey’s New Regional Diplomacy, PRIO Cyprus Centre Report, 2. Nicosia: PRIO Cyprus Centre.
Faustmann, Hubert; Ayla Gürel; & Gregory M. Reichberg, eds, (2012) Cyprus Offshore Hydrocarbons: Regional Politics and Wealth Distribution, PRIO Cyprus Centre Report, 1. Nicosia: PRIO Cyprus Centre.

Conference Paper

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The evolving phenomenon of post-Soviet revolutions: The new "velvet" impetus, presented at Caucasus-2018, Yerevan, Armenia, 21 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) The Nature and the Evolution of Russia’s Military-Strategic Connection to Europe, presented at ASEEES 2017 Convention, Chicago, USA, 16/11/2017.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia's Decline, presented at Russia in Decline, Washington DC, London, 27 June 2016.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russian intervention in Syria, presented at Ninth Annual Terrorism Conference, the Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC, 08/12/2015.
Tunander, Ola (2014) Rudolf Kjellen and the Birth of Geopolitics: A Geopolitical Scholar of the First World War, presented at The International Studies Association Annual Convention, Toronto, 26 March 2014.

PRIO Policy Brief

Harpviken, Kristian Berg & Benjamin Onne Yogev (2016) Syria’s Internally Displaced and the Risk of Militarization, PRIO Policy Brief, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Brattvoll, Joakim (2016) Uzbekistan’s ambiguous policies on Afghanistan, PRIO Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2016) A New Era for Myanmar – Trouble Ahead for Ethnic Minorities, PRIO Policy Brief, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2016) A New Era for Myanmar – Trouble Ahead for Ethnic Minorities (Burmese Version), PRIO Policy Brief, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Brattvoll, Joakim (2016) Is Russia Back in Afghanistan?, PRIO Policy Brief, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Partnership of Contrarians, PRIO Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Tønnesson, Stein (2015) ASEAN’s Rohingya Challenge, PRIO Policy Brief, 9. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2014) Myanmar’s National Census – Helping or ​Disrupting Peace?, PRIO Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2014) High Risk of Electoral Violence in Myanmar, PRIO Policy Brief, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2014) High Risk of Electoral Violence in Myanmar (BURMESE version), PRIO Policy Brief, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2013) Political Parties and Peacebuilding in Myanmar, PRIO Policy Brief, 5. Oslo: PRIO.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia and Turkey in conflict (mis)management in the Caucasus, PRIO Policy Brief, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Nilsen , Marte & Stein Tønnesson (2012) Can Myanmar’s 2008 Constitution Be Made To Satisfy Ethnic Aspirations?, PRIO Policy Brief, 11. Oslo: PRIO.
Peoples, Mareah (2012) Egypt, the Rafah Border and the Prospects for Gaza, PRIO Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Tuastad, Dag Henrik (2012) Democratizing the PLO, PRIO Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Naftalin, Mark & Kristian Berg Harpviken (2012) Rebels and Refugees: Syrians in Southern Turkey, PRIO Policy Brief, 10. Oslo: PRIO.
Suhrke, Astri (2011) Disjointed Incrementalism: NATO in Afghanistan, PRIO Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2011) Power Prevails: The Failure of Whole-of-Government Approaches in Afghanistan, PRIO Policy Brief, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Klein, Menachem (2011) The Israeli Perspective on the Two-State Solution, PRIO Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Hovdenak, Are (2010) Hamas in Gaza: Preparing for Long-term Control?, PRIO Policy Brief, 11. Oslo: PRIO.
Gomsrud, Lars Seland & Mohamed Husein Gaas (2010) Somalia's Transitional Federal Government at a Crossroads, PRIO Policy Brief, 10. Oslo: PRIO.
Tuastad, Dag Henrik (2010) The Hudna: Hamas's Concept of a Long-term Ceasefire, PRIO Policy Brief, 9. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Harpviken, Kristian Berg & Sultan Barakat (2018) Comparing Qatari and Norwegian Models of Small State Conflict Mediation, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou & Mohammad Fazeli (2016) Iran and its Relationship to Afghanistan After the Nuclear Deal: A New Era for Constructive Interaction?, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Tanchum, Michael (2015) A New Equilibrium: The Republic of Cyprus, Israel and Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean Strategic Architecture, Occasional Paper Series. Cyprus: PRIO Cyprus Centre and Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Eide, Kai (2014) Afghanistan and the US: Between Partnership and Occupation, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Pattanaik, Smruti S. (2013) Afghanistan and Its Neighbourhood. In Search of a Stable Future, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou (2013) The Persian Gulf and Afghanistan: Iran and Saudi Arabia's Rivalry Projected, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
South, Ashley (2012) Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2011) A Peace Nation Takes Up Arms: The Norwegian Engagement in Afghanistan, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Tadjbakhsh, Shahrbanou (2011) South Asia and Afghanistan: The Robust India-Pakistan Rivalry, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2010) Afghanistan in a Neighbourhood Perspective: General Overview and Conceptualisation, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Høigilt, Jacob & Øystein H. Rolandsen (2010) Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Baev, Pavel K.; & Fred Dews (2018) Brookings' experts on Syria's civil war, and what's next for US policyWashington DC: Brookings Institution.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia's geopolitical ambitions and military activities in the Arctic, Written evidence for the Defence in the Arctic inquiry. London: UK Parliament, Defence Committee.
Kolås, Åshild (ed.) (2017) Report on India’s Climate Mitigation and Adaptation: Key Strategies, INDWORLD Conference Report. Oslo: PRIO.
Chennai, Archana; Reshmi Kazi; & Rajiv Nayan, eds, (2016) India's Role in Global Nuclear Governance, INDWORLD Project Report. New Delhi: IDSA.
Tank, Pinar (2012) The Concept of "Rising Powers" , Policy Brief for Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF) , .

Report - External Series

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The impacts of the Syrian intervention on Russian strategic culture, Security Insights, 33. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The White Whale Chooses Freedom: Hard Choices in Opposing Russian Dominance in the Arctic, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 622. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russia misguided and seeks to restrain the revolution in Armenia, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 599. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Shifts in Russian military build-up in the Arctic driven by the Interactions with China, Security Insights, 32. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) The interplay of bureaucratic, war-fighting and arms-parading traits in Russian military-strategic culture, Security Insights, 28. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian Nuclear Modernization and Putin's Wonder-Missiles, Russie.Nei.Visions, 115. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Russian Strategic Guidelines and Threat Assessments for the Arctic, Security Insights, 26. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George Marshall Center for European Security Studies.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Kirill Rogov (2019) Внешняя политика осталась конфронтационной, но утратила инициативу [Foreign policy remains confrontational but has lost initiative], Крепость врастает в землю (The fortress sinks into the earth). Moscow: The Liberal Mission Foundation.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Stefan Meister (2018) Between old and new world order: Russia's foreign and security policy rationale, DGAP Kompact, 19. Berlin: DGAP.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) From Chechnya to Syria: Evolution of Russia's Counter-Terrorist Policy, Russie.Nei.Visions, 107. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Bruce Jones (2018) Restoring equilibrium: US policy options for countering and engaging Russia, Foreign Policy at Brookings, 4. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Kemal Kirisci (2017) An Ambiguous Partnership: The serpentine trajectory of Turkish-Russian relations, Turkey Project Policy paper, 13. Washington DC: Brookings.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Stephen Blank (2017) European assessments and concerns about Russia's policy in the Middle East, Russia in the Middle East, 1. Washington DC: Jamestown Foundation.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia's Arctic dreams, Reconnecting Asia. Washington DC: CSIS.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) The Russia-Ukraine conflict as the main driver of new confrontation in Europe, ISPI Commnetary. Milan: ISPI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Pressure Points: The Syria Intervention as an Instrument of Russia’s EU Policy, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 470. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Russia’s Entanglement in Syria: A Protracted, Extreme Stress Factor for the Russian Navy, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 494. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Natasha Kuhrt (2017) Assessing Russia's Power: The Nuclear Dimension of Russian Military Power, BISA Reports, 1. London & Newcastle: King's College, London & Newcastle University.
Miklian, Jason; & Devika Sharma (2016) India’s global foreign policy engagements – a new paradigm?, NOREF Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, 2016. Oslo: NOREF.
Miklian, Jason; & Jayashree Vivekanandan (2016) Bringing the region back in? Deciphering India’s engagement with South Asia, NOREF Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, 2016. Oslo: NOREF.
Miklian, Jason; & Atul Mishra (2016) The evolving domestic drivers of Indian foreign policy, NOREF Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre, 2016. Oslo: NOREF.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia and Central and Eastern Europe: between Confrontation and Collusion, Russie.Nei.Visions, 97. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Mistrust Sets Low Ceiling for Russia-China Partnership: Deconstructing the Putin-Xi Jinping Relationship, PONARS Eurasia memo, 447. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Juha Jokela (2015) Arctic Security Matters - Russia's Arctic Aspirations, EUISS Reports, 24. Paris: EUISS.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Ukraine: A test for Russian military reform, Russie.Nei.Report, 19. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russian air power is too brittle for brinksmanship, PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, 398. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia’s policy in the Middle East imperilled by the Syrian intervention, NOREF Policy Brief. Oslo: NOREF.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Could Russia become a serious spoiler in the Middle East?, PONARS Eurasia: Policy Memo, 359. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Høigilt, Jacob; Akram Atallah; & Hani el-Dada (2013) Palestinian youth activism: new actors, new possibilities?, NOREF Report. Oslo: NOREF.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2013) Initiatives to Foster an Afghan Peace Process, 2001-12: A Role for Norway?, NOREF Report. Oslo: Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF).
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia assumes and exploits the chairmanship of the G20, NOREF Policy Brief. Oslo: NOREF.
Rolandsen, Øystein H.; Ingrid Marie Breidlid; & Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert (2012) Negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan: a two-track process could facilitate agreements on outstanding issues., Noref Article. Oslo: Noref.
Tank, Pinar (2012) The Syria crisis: Challenges to Turkey’s role in the new Middle East, NA. IKOS, New Middle East Project - University of Oslo.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russia's Arctic Policy and the Northern Fleet Modernization , Russie.Nei.Visions , 65. IFRI.
Tank, Pinar (2012) The AKP’s foreign policy challenges after the Arab Spring, IKOS, 3. University of Oslo: Department of Culture Studies and Oriental Languages (IKOS).
Høigilt, Jacob (2011) Who's who in the new Egypt? A mapping of prominent actors of change, NOREF Report. Oslo: NOREF.
Høigilt, Jacob (2010) Darfur between war and peace, NOREF Article. Oslo: NOREF.
Suhrke, Astri; Torunn Wimpelmann Chaudhary; Aziz Hakimi; Kristian Berg Harpviken; Akbar Sarwari; & Arne Strand (2009) Conciliatory Approaches to the Insurgency in Afghanistan: An Overview, CMI Report, 1. Bergen: Chr. Michelsen Institute.

Book Review

Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Review of Greene, Samuel; & Graeme Robertson, eds, Putin v. the People: The Perilous Politics of a Divided Russia, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Review of Omelicheva, Mariya; & Laurence Markowitz, eds, Webs of Corruption: Trafficking and Terrorism in Central Asia, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2019) Review of Parag Khanna, ed., The Future Is Asian: Commerce, Culture, and Conflict in the 21st Century, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Larry Hancock, ed., Creating Chaos: Covert Political Warfare from Truman to Putin, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Natalie Koch, ed., The Geopolitics of Spectacle: Space, Synecdoche, and the New Capitals of Asia, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Anna Ohanyan, ed., Russia Abroad: Driving Regional Fracture in Post-Communist Eurasia and Beyond, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Helge Blakkisrud, ed., Russia's Turn to the East, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Michael A. McFaul, ed., From Cold War to Hot Peace, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Dimitar Bechev, ed., Rival Power: Russia's Influence in Southeast Europe, in JPR .
Kolås, Åshild (2018) Review of Miaoyan Yang, ed., Learning to Be Tibetan: The Construction of Ethnic Identity at Minzu University of China, in The China Journal 80: 123–125.
Baev, Pavel K. (2018) Review of Brian Taylor, ed., The Code of Putinism, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Review of Shireen T. Hunter, ed., The New Geopolitics of the South Caucasus, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Review of Bobo Lo, ed., A Wary Embrace, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2017) Review of Rajan Menon, ed., Conflict in Ukraine, in Journal of Peace Research .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Richard Shirreff, ed., 2017 War with Russia, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of David Shambaugh, ed., China's Future, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Robert Legvold, ed., Return to Cold War, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Robert Blackwill, ed., War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, in JPR .
Kolås, Åshild (2015) Review of The Arctic Contested, in International Affairs 91(2): 423–424.

Blog Posts

Science Diplomacy in the Middle East

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Tuesday, 5 November 2019

Research-based dialogue can make substantial contributions to addressing challenges in the Middle East. By mobilizing diverse knowledge milieus, drawing attention to new insights, and emphasizing the normative commitment to truth, we can lay the foundations for dialogue between various states and actors who otherwise find it difficult to interact. At ... Read more »

The Time Has Come to Define the Lebanon We Want

Posted by Carmen Geha on Sunday, 3 November 2019

Lebanon’s protests have brought the country to a pivotal moment. It’s now paramount we act carefully and with the lessons from the past in mind. This piece originally appeared online in The New Arab. In the week since then the situation has continued to rapidly evolve. We will publish a new ... Read more »

Gulf States Are Making Their Way to the Horn of Africa

Posted by Hilde Frafjord Johnson on Monday, 28 October 2019

The Gulf States are looking for new allies in the Horn of Africa, in a battle for hegemony in the Middle East. With their deep pockets and big appetites these countries are using economic investments, new military bases, and strategic political alliances to change geopolitics on both sides of the ... Read more »

A New Phase in the Syria Conflict and New Security Challenges

Posted by Zenonas Tziarras & Ioannis-Sotirios Ioannou on Monday, 21 October 2019

On 9 October 2019, Turkey launched its third invasion in Syria dubbed “Operation Peace Spring”, this time in north-eastern Syria. The previous two operations, “Euphrates Shield” and “Olive Branch” took place in north-western Syria (west of river Euphrates) and established a Turkey-controlled zone between the cities of Jarablus to the ... Read more »

Fragmentation and External Intervention Hamper Peace in Yemen

Posted by Maria-Louise Clausen on Friday, 20 September 2019

The armed conflict in Yemen has grown increasingly complex as existing cleavages have become ever-more entrenched, and new ones are emerging. The conflict in Yemen escalated in March 2015 when a Saudi-led military intervention complicated an already intricate internal crisis. Saudi Arabia’s intent behind the military intervention was to weaken ... Read more »

Creating a Third Space in the Cyprus Conflict: Mete Hatay Interviewed by Cindy Horst

Posted by Cindy Horst on Wednesday, 18 September 2019

Mete Hatay, interviewed by Cindy Horst Seeing victim become perpetrator, perpetrator become victim – seeing them change places depending on the situation – triggered a lot of questions in my mind… Whatever you imagine for the future, you always construct it from the past. And you cannot say, ‘let’s put ... Read more »

How does the Japan and South Korea feud intensify, and is the U.S. able to help?

Posted by Shohei Doi & Atsushi Tago on Monday, 19 August 2019

Japan and South Korea are facing the worst deterioration of bilateral ties in history after the 1965 normalization treaty came into force. Unfortunately, people in both countries seem to have forgotten that they successfully co-hosted a FIFA World Cup in 2002. At this moment, there is absolutely no welcoming mood ... Read more »

Why should the Sudanese cautiously celebrate the political declaration?

Posted by Luka Biong Deng Kuol on Friday, 26 July 2019

As the Sudanese have ever more reason to celebrate the political declaration signed by the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) and Transitional Military Council (TMC), one may have some reservations and concerns but with optimism of a better future for Sudan. Reasons to Celebrate The Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), ... Read more »

Crisis in Sudan: Who Can Unlock the Current Impasse?

Posted by Luka Biong Deng Kuol on Tuesday, 25 June 2019

Since the eruption of the Sudanese popular uprising on 19th December 2018, the protesters have made history. Not only have they unseated one of the longest serving dictators on the continent, Omer El Bashir, their determination and persistence have stunned the world and inspired uprising in other African countries. This ... Read more »

The Battles over Peace in Afghanistan

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Monday, 20 May 2019

The battles over leadership of the peace process in Afghanistan are intensifying. It seems increasingly likely that there will be a peace agreement, in one form or other, between the United States and the Taliban. But an Afghan peace settlement that is not based on dialogue between parties within Afghanistan ... Read more »

Could Peace Talks in Afghanistan Fail Before They Really Begin?

Posted by Kai Eide on Wednesday, 8 May 2019

Is the peace process in Afghanistan already in serious trouble? Talks continue in Doha between the US and the Taliban – which is good. The Loya Jirga – dedicated to peace and reconciliation – has concluded, but with a number of prominent politicians abstaining. In Moscow a significant group of ... Read more »

Israel and the UN – a Relationship on Israel’s Terms

Posted by Jørgen Jensehaugen on Wednesday, 27 March 2019

It is claimed that the UN created Israel. This is only true subject to major reservations, and the relationship between the two is extremely complicated. On 14 May 2018, Israel celebrated its 70th anniversary, and in May this year it will be 70 years since the country became a member ... Read more »

Could There Be War in South Asia?

Posted by Torkel Brekke on Wednesday, 6 March 2019

A sinister mixture of geopolitical changes, nationalist sentiments, and election campaigns now has the potential to generate one of the world’s most dangerous security crises. On 14 February, a terrorist attack in Pulwama in the Indian state Jammu & Kashmir killed more than 40 Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) ... Read more »

What Do the Afghan Peace Talks in Moscow Mean?

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Tuesday, 12 February 2019

The talks in Moscow between the Taliban and Afghan opposition politicians reflect a new world order, in which Russia is recognized as a global superpower. Even though the Afghan government remains on the sidelines, the talks may become an important part of the unpredictable Afghan peace process. The images from ... Read more »

Russia Is Set to Support Maduro to the Bitter End

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 11 February 2019

Russia has positioned itself as the main supporter of Nicholas Maduro regime in Venezuela, taking the risk of turning a crisis in a far-away country into an embarrassing political defeat. Official propaganda has amplified this issue, so that 57 percent of respondents in a recent poll confirmed that they were ... Read more »

Norway Has Chauvinistic Tunnel Vision When It Comes to Congo. The Country Has Great Possibilities.

Posted by Helge Hveem on Monday, 14 January 2019

On 10 December, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Nadia Murad and to Denis Mukwege, a Congolese gynaecologist. For 10 years though, the Norwegian media and politicians, including the prime minister, have viewed the Democratic Republic of the Congo as Joshua French’s prison.* This view derives from a chauvinistic ... Read more »

The Unintended Consequences of Killing Jamal Khashoggi: A Backgrounder on the Yemeni Peace Talks

Posted by Júlia Palik on Friday, 7 December 2018

This week the spotlight is on Sweden and UN Special Envoy Martin Griffiths: On Wednesday representatives of the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels arrived in Stockholm to find solutions to what the UN described as the ‘worst [humanitarian] crisis in the world’. The Saudi Arabia-led nine-member coalition has been at ... Read more »

What Will China Do About the Middle East?

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Friday, 23 November 2018

The Middle East is set to become the major test for China as a global power. The region is characterized by war, political tensions and economic stagnation. China is ramping up its role, not least with its Belt and Road Initiative. What do the Chinese think about the challenges in ... Read more »

The INF Treaty Demise: Natural Causes and Bad Blunders

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 29 October 2018

Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI, has published a very informative and thoughtful blog on the apparently imminent breakdown of the INF Treaty. Following up with a week-old second thoughts, I can share this article (adapted from the Order from Chaos, published by the Brookings). The discussion of the pending U.S. ... Read more »

The Sargentini Report and Hungary: How to Shape a Parallel Reality

Posted by Júlia Palik on Thursday, 25 October 2018

Hungary is in the international spotlight again. On 12 September 2018, the European Parliament voted in favor of the Sargentini report – named after the author, the Dutch MEP Judith Sargentini– with a two-thirds majority. The report called for the activation of Article 7 (1) of the Treaty on European ... Read more »

Lessons from Camp David

Posted by Jørgen Jensehaugen on Wednesday, 17 October 2018

Forty years ago, President Jimmy Carter orchestrated peace between Israel and Egypt; yet the conflict between Israel and Palestinians is further than ever from a solution. Those outcomes are closely linked. There are lessons for President Donald Trump to learn from Carter’s experience, if he is attentive. An unprecedented breakthrough ... Read more »

The Norwegian Defeat in Afghanistan

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Thursday, 19 July 2018

The Norwegian involvement did not produce lasting results in Afghanistan, but it did foster goodwill with the United States and other allies. But the negative international ripple effects are serious, including an erosion of the commitment to peaceful conflict resolution, as well as an undermining of international norms and rules. ... Read more »

Russia Celebrates the Football Fiesta, but the Hangover Will Hit Hard

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 20 June 2018

The start of the 2018 World Cup had everything millions of fans in Russia could wish for: Perfectly prepared stadiums, beautiful and short opening ceremony, and spectacular performance of the national team. The country has indeed come together and rejoiced in welcoming the greatest sport event, which will be watched with ... Read more »

The Long Peace Most Likely Began during the Vietnam War

Posted by Bjarn Røsjø on Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Two statisticians at the University of Oslo have blown a hole in Steven Pinker’s famous theory that the Long Peace dates from 1945 onwards. But Pinker is excited about the new calculations, which suggest that this more peaceful period instead began in 1965 – during the Vietnam War. In his ... Read more »

I Am a Friend of Israel. And I Can't Accept Its Indiscriminate Violence Against Palestinians in Gaza

Posted by Torkel Brekke on Monday, 4 June 2018

The political leadership in Israel often uses the concept of “friend” and “enemy.” Other countries also use those concepts from time to time, but it seems that they are particularly prevalent in Israeli political language. For instance, Prime Minister Netanyahu talks of “true friend” Donald Trump, “close friend” Narendra Modi ... Read more »

The Moscow–Washington Hotline Worked – This Time Around

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Monday, 7 May 2018

In the war in Syria, the two globally most militarily active superpowers – Russia and the United States – have soldiers actively deployed on opposite sides on the same battlefield. This is the first time this has happened since the end of World War II, and it is a dangerous ... Read more »

Can Moon Jae-In Remove the Stumbling Blocks to Peace in Korea?

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 2 May 2018

Donald Trump is the unknown factor in the South Korean president’s peace diplomacy. Friday 27 April 2018 was a new historic day for Korea. Even before he had completed the first year of his five-year term as president of South Korea, the 65-year-old human rights lawyer Moon Jae-in succeeded in holding ... Read more »

The Important Debate We’re Not Having

Posted by Gunhild Hoogensen Gjørv, Ståle Ulriksen & Kristian Berg Harpviken on Monday, 9 April 2018

Foreign and security policy impacts everyone, and is therefore too important a topic to be silenced or restricted to the backrooms of government ministries. In general Norwegians have a high level of knowledge on international affairs, not least reflected in a substantial societal interest in the subject. The world is ... Read more »

Hungary (Re)Elects in April

Posted by Júlia Palik on Thursday, 5 April 2018

Looking at the most recent polls, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán can be calm about the upcoming elections on the 8th of April. The only real question is whether his Fidesz party will win with a simple or a constitutional majority. But what is the secret of this football enthusiast? ... Read more »

Will the “October Children” from Afghanistan Get Fair Treatment?

Posted by Kai Eide on Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Is Norway’s asylum policy simply strict – or is it also fair and humane? In the coming weeks, approximately 200 young Afghans – the so-called “October children” – will have their cases re-assessed. Originally these children were granted temporary residence permits until they turned 18. Thereafter they were to be ... Read more »

The Taliban’s Choice

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Tuesday, 13 March 2018

The Taliban have, for the first time, been presented with a comprehensive peace initiative. This is an invitation they can not turn down. President Ashraf Ghani’s proposal at the conclusion of the recent meeting of the Kabul Process on Peace and Security Cooperation was as bold as it was surprising. ... Read more »

The Beginning of a Peace Process in Afghanistan – Finally?

Posted by Kai Eide on Wednesday, 7 March 2018

Is Afghanistan finally at a turning point – after so many disappointments and wasted opportunities? At the Kabul Process II conference on 28 February, President Ashraf Ghani proposed to launch peace talks with the Taliban without preconditions, offering to recognize the Taliban as a legitimate political group, and presenting a ... Read more »

Theses on Peacemaking in Afghanistan: a Manifesto

Posted by Barnett R. Rubin on Wednesday, 7 March 2018

Author’s Note: Royalist and republican, Khalqi and Parchami, Soviet Union and the West, communist and Islamist, mujahid and Talib, Hanafi and takfiri, al Qaeda and America, warlord and technocrat, Pashtun and non-Pashtun, Islamic Emirate and Islamic State, KGB, ISI, and CIA – all have for decades carried on an uninterrupted ... Read more »

Afghanistan – a new chapter in the Great Game?

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Wednesday, 7 March 2018

May the shifting superpower dynamics bring hope for Afghanistan? Both Moscow and Beijing are displaying increasing interest in Afghanistan, after a decade and a half of domination by Washington. This shift is having effects in both Afghanistan and among its neighbours. the international power play surrounding Afghanistan is changing Recent ... Read more »

Putin Brags about Missiles and Remains Mum about Mercenaries

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 2 March 2018

The annual presidential address to the parliament is usually a rather dull affair in Russia, but President Putin has certainly managed to make an impression with the speech delivered on March 1, 2018. He elaborated at great length about Russia’s military might, but before describing new weapon systems (some of ... Read more »

Turkey’s Risky Adventure in Afrin

Posted by Pinar Tank on Friday, 23 February 2018

Turkey’s military incursion into Kurdish-controlled northern Syria risks straining diplomatic ties and exposing Turkey to increased terror threats. The Turkish offensive on Afrin that began on January 20 had long been anticipated. But while the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) may hope this campaign can drum up anti-Kurdish nationalism ... Read more »

From Failure to Victory - 50 Years since the Tet Offensive

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Tuesday, 30 January 2018

The Vietnam War remains the deadliest war the world has seen since 1945. The Tet offensive was a turning point. For the US, it took away the belief that victory was possible. All that was left was to find a way out. Fifty years ago, in the middle of the ... Read more »

Putin's "Victory" in Syria has Unraveled Fast

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 23 January 2018

The civil war in Syria will soon enter into the seventh year, with around 400,000 people dead and over 12 million displaced. Although the so-called Islamic State has been militarily defeated in Raqqa, no one party is in control of the country—and there is hardly much hope that the tragedy ... Read more »

Conflict Portrait: Afghanistan

Posted by Thomas Ruttig on Wednesday, 1 November 2017

The armed conflict between the Afghan government, along with its international allies, and armed radical Islamist insurgents intensified after 2014. At the end of that year, the mandate of the NATO-led ISAF combat mission expired, and the responsibility for security was officially handed over to the Afghan authorities. ISAF was ... Read more »

Totalitarianism Closing in on China

Posted by Stein Ringen on Monday, 16 October 2017

The only drama in the “two sessions” jamboree in Beijing this spring is that there was no drama at all. Each year the Chinese political élite, 5000 men and a few women strong, congregate in the capital for a week of meetings of the legislature, the National People’s Congress, and ... Read more »

Why a War with North Korea Is Unlikely

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Here are three scenarios for the North Korean crisis: The recent flurry of threats between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump has caused much consternation. Threats can indeed be dangerous but only when they are followed up by hostile action. The latest important developments in this crisis have been North Korea’s ... Read more »

Turkey’s Turn Toward Russia

Posted by Pinar Tank on Monday, 29 May 2017

Despite tensions over Syria, Turkey is increasingly turning to Russia to secure its foreign and domestic policy needs. Though anticipated, the May 9 announcement by the Donald Trump administration that the United States would arm fighters of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in preparation for an advance on the ... Read more »

The East Asian Peace

Posted by Jo Inge Bekkevold on Friday, 19 May 2017

The 6-year East Asian Peace (EAP) program at Uppsala University led by Stein Tønnesson of PRIO and Uppsala University has been undertaken in a period with increased uncertainty about peace and stability in East Asia. China’s rise and increased rivalry in the region has made stability in East Asia the most ... Read more »

The East Asian Peace – Two New Books

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Friday, 12 May 2017

Two books were launched earlier this week from the East Asian Peace (EAP) program at Uppsala University, led by Stein Tønnesson of PRIO and Uppsala University. One is a monograph by the program director, Stein Tønnesson, Explaining the East Asian Peace, the other a volume edited by Elin Bjarnegård & Joakim ... Read more »

Can the East Asian Peace Survive?

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Thursday, 11 May 2017

Uncertainty concerning President Donald Trump’s China and North Korea policies have instilled new fears of war in East Asia, a region that has enjoyed a surprising level of peace for almost four decades. Yet, if China treats Trump with care, the region may remain peaceful. The text in this post ... Read more »

Is China helping Trump, or is Trump helping China?

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Tuesday, 25 April 2017

When Chinese president Xi Jinping met US president Donald Trump in Florida on 6–7 April, Xi convinced his host that it is not easy to exert influence on North Korea, but apparently promised to help the United States to the best of his ability. In practice, it may be Trump who helps ... Read more »

East Asian Peace: Telling Japan to be Proud

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 19 April 2017

To a Tokyo audience of Japanese peace practitioners, academics, journalists and diplomats, I recently chose to address the Japanese as East Asians. I had three important messages to convey: You East Asians have a Peace to Defend The East Asian Peace is at Risk Please overcome your differences and aim for ... Read more »

Playing Chinese Whispers with a Megaphone

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Thursday, 30 March 2017

These days, a press conference at the White House is cringe TV. President Trump greeting world leaders may leave unfortunate viewers squirming in front of the screen. It’s an experience simultaneously entertaining and unpleasant. One thing that already has generated countless internet memes and analyses among the Twitterati is Trump’s ... Read more »

Trump and Threats to Truth, Democracy and Peace

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Tuesday, 21 March 2017

Stein Tønnesson delivered this year’s The Fjord Memorial Lecture  at Inland Norway University of Applied Sciences, Lillehammer. The lecture discusses Trump’s team of advisors, calls for fighting the increasing use of lies in political campaigning, sees Trump’s election as having weakened democracy worldwide, and perceives a major risk to world ... Read more »

A Tourist in Search of the Real Cuba

Posted by Nils Petter Gleditsch on Tuesday, 7 March 2017

After traveling in Cuba for two weeks, I sit down to reflect: What is Cuba? A socialist laboratory for Che Guevara’s ‘New Man’? A vast outdoor museum of Spanish colonial architecture? An extraordinary collection of sixty-year old American gas-guzzling automobiles? A zoo for humans (excellent health care, low infant mortality, ... Read more »

Trump Reminded Me Why I Am An Academic

Posted by Idean Salehyan on Monday, 6 March 2017

“Why did you become an academic?” is a question that I’m frequently asked. For me, my path into this profession is pretty clear. I was about fourteen and a freshman in high school in the early 1990s. A few of my friends joined the school chapter of Amnesty International, and ... Read more »

Remembering Boris Nemtsov – and Reflecting upon Russian History

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 2 March 2017

Five years ago, Boris Nemtsov, one of the leaders of Russian liberal opposition, visited Oslo and made his cause for several audiences, who now remember his passion and joy. There is indeed much to reflect upon in this recent Russian history – and in its older pages as well. One ... Read more »

Yemen is on the Brink

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 2 March 2017

Most of the world’s attention has recently been directed towards Syria. In the shadow of Syria, the conflict in Yemen has been left to its own devices, and Yemen is now set to experience an even greater humanitarian catastrophe than Syria. In Syria, we witness the beginning of the end ... Read more »

With Orwell to the West Bank

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Tuesday, 28 February 2017

The United States under President Trump is not the only place where the rule of law is currently being put to the test. In early February hundreds of Israeli police officers battled on the West Bank with hundreds of determined young protesters armed with stones. Sixteen police officers were injured ... Read more »

The Munich Security Conference Focuses on Russia - and Reflects on Putin's Speech 10 Years Ago

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 15 February 2017

The annual Munich Security Conference will take place later this week (February 17–19) with many prominent speakers, including Dan Smith, former PRIO director and presently SIPRI Director. It was ten years ago at this forum that President Vladimir Putin delivered a famous speech detailing Russia’s deep dissatisfaction with the world ... Read more »

Sleepless in the Age of Trump

Posted by Tore Wig on Monday, 6 February 2017

What we know about how great power wars start should make us terrified of President Trump. I don’t sleep at night, because of Donald Trump. This is unusual. I wasn’t kept awake at night by George W. Bush or Bill Clinton. Nor do I lose sleep over hot-blooded authoritarians such ... Read more »

The Moonlanding

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Wednesday, 21 December 2016

“I’ll be the first Palestinian woman to land on the moon,” she states with a wry smile. The world – and space – lies at her feet, as in theory it does for children all over the world. But these particular legs are standing on shaky ground. Her legs are ... Read more »

Digital India: Less Cash, but not Cashless

Posted by Åshild Kolås & Elida Kristine Undrum Jacobsen on Wednesday, 30 November 2016

The past month has seen historic events in India. On Tuesday 8 November 2016, the Modi government announced without prior warning that all 500 and 1000 Indian rupee notes would be rendered valueless more or less overnight. In effect, this meant immediate withdrawal of the largest bank notes in circulation, ... Read more »

What This Election Means for US Foreign Policy

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 11 November 2016

The resonance of this U.S. election campaign is truly enormous, in every corner of the world. But despite much disgust about the mudslinging, it is not necessarily all that negative. Observers everywhere may be astounded that a candidate so arrogantly ignorant in international affairs could gather so much support, but ... Read more »

To Tame a Hawk

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Friday, 4 November 2016

Hillary Clinton is not seeking attention for her views on Syria. And she has her reasons for not doing so. One area that has been more or less devoid of attention is foreign policy We can safely say that the 2016 US election campaign has been one of a kind. ... Read more »

No One can Fill King Bhumibol’s Shoes

Posted by Marte Nilsen on Monday, 17 October 2016

For 70 years, the beloved King Bhumibol Adulyadej (Rama IX) ruled Thailand, and to date he has represented the country’s only stable political reference point. Since the introduction of the constitutional kingdom in 1932, the country has been through 19 different constitutions and 12 military coups – the latest just ... Read more »

Moscow Gambles on Raising the Stakes - in Syria and Across the Board

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 10 October 2016

The crisis in relations with Russia, and in particular Russia’s behavior in the Syrian war, has become an unusually prominent theme in the U.S. election campaign. That means that a new administration could start with a set of tough pledges, rather than with a clean slate. Campaign trail rhetoric is ... Read more »

White Helmets in the Dark Night

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Tuesday, 4 October 2016

In the long dark night that is the Syrian nightmare, the White Helmets have become the only ray of light. “In an earlier PRIO blog post, Erica Chenoweth observed that “there are really two types of Nobel Peace Prize Laureates – elites (or elite-led institutions) and ordinary people.” This year, ... Read more »

An Alarm from Aleppo

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Friday, 30 September 2016

At dawn on 23 September, Syrian and Russian fighter jets roared over eastern Aleppo, bringing new death and destruction to the city’s besieged inhabitants. The attacks followed several days of relative quiet, but the ensuing days and nights were worse than ever. The chaos makes it difficult to determine exactly ... Read more »

Women, Peace and Security?

Posted by Cecilie Fleming on Wednesday, 21 September 2016

The Norwegian government had lofty ambitions to implement UN Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security in Faryab Province in Afghanistan. However, attempts to realise these ambitions were half-hearted. The role of the gender adviser became a political alibi for the Norwegian Provincial Reconstruction Team’s haphazard efforts to implement the ... Read more »

Rhetoric as Required

Posted by Pia Bergmann on Tuesday, 20 September 2016

From “the pre-emptive defence of Norway”, to “conflict resolution and peace”, even in the event of “war-like actions”, Norwegian politicians have adapted their rhetoric on Afghanistan as required by circumstances and public opinion. From day one, the Norwegian government has been enthusiastic in its support of intervention in Afghanistan. But ... Read more »

Latest Kerry-Lavrov Deal on Syria Destined to Unravel

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 September 2016

The agreement on managing the Syrian civil war, reached between the United States and Russia in Geneva in the early hours of Saturday, September 10, was both surprising and pre-determined. US Secretary of State John Kerry had invested so much effort in the endless rounds of marathon talks with Russian ... Read more »

Are We Nearing an End to Buddhist Extremism in Myanmar?

Posted by Marte Nilsen on Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Ma Ba Tha and similar groups of extremist monks in Myanmar could face resistance after a government official finally rebuked their brand of nationalism. It took just one dismissive comment from the chief minister of Yangon to seemingly deflate Ma Ba Tha. The Buddhist nationalist organisation has become known for ... Read more »

Russia Underperforms at Pivoting

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 2 September 2016

Vladivostok, which had an expensive facelift for the 2012 APEC summit, will this week host the Eastern Economic Forum, and President Vladimir Putin is due to preside over the proceedings. His goal is to reassert Russia’s commitment to playing a major role in Asia-Pacific geopolitics and to reinvigorate business ties ... Read more »

A Bug in the System

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Friday, 2 September 2016

Palestine does not exist on the map and is also not easy to find in the jam-packed schedules of diplomats working with the Middle East. A Twitter storm was unleashed a couple of weeks ago when rumours spread among pro-Palestinian activists that Google had removed Palestine from its mapping service. ... Read more »

No More Lost Opportunities

Posted by Harry Tzimitras on Thursday, 1 September 2016

The leaders of Cyprus’ communities enjoy a rapport that would seem encouraging for settling decades-long differences. But new geopolitical realities could easily sideline progress. The time is now for visionary and credible political initiative, coupled with the constructive engagement of the international community. Few would disagree that negotiations for the ... Read more »

India’s Membership of the Missile Technology Control Regime

Posted by Rajiv Nayan & Åshild Kolås on Thursday, 18 August 2016

India became the 35th member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) on 27 June 2016. The MTCR is an informal and voluntary association of suppliers of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of delivering Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), and other unmanned aerial vehicles. It was established in 1987 with ... Read more »

France’s Response to Terror

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Tuesday, 19 July 2016

Following the terror attack in Nice, the French President Hollande has responded to mounting criticism by sharpening both his rhetoric and the country’s proposed reactions to terror. But no society can be protected against all risks, and anti-terror efforts do not always have the intended effects. Within a split second, ... Read more »

Blair’s Global Vision – and Lacking Knowledge Base

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Tuesday, 12 July 2016

Tony Blair took the decision to take part in the military intervention in Iraq in 2003 more or less on his own, and based it on very scant knowledge. Are there reasons to fear the same happening again? The British Chilcot Commission has released a crushing verdict over former PM ... Read more »

Putin's Trip to Beijing Yields few Fruits, if any

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 30 June 2016

Expectations regarding President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing on Saturday (June 25) had been rather subdued, and the modest results were mostly immaterial. Last year, the two leaders grandiosely celebrated their countries’ World War II victory over the Axis powers; and in 2014, they announced a great increase in economic ... Read more »

The Right to Decide: Exit and Basque Self-Determination

Posted by Åshild Kolås on Tuesday, 28 June 2016

Five years ago, the Basque militant group ETA (Basque Homeland and Freedom) announced a unilateral and permanent cessation of operations. Since then, the disappearance of political violence has given rise to a new debate on Basque nationhood: more inclusive, more open, more civic, and at the same time stronger in ... Read more »

Political Defeat – Military Inadequacy! The Swaddling Blanket of Intervention

Posted by Robert Mood on Thursday, 9 June 2016

The military interventions by the West in the Middle East, Afghanistan and North Africa in recent years are examples of bold and efficient use of force resulting in immediate achievement of goals. Saddam Hussein’s military forces were defeated, the Taliban were deprived of their havens and possible massacres in Libya ... Read more »

Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence - Why, and will it last?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 6 June 2016

With the NATO summit in Warsaw coming up in July, the rhetoric in many Western quarters is becoming shriller about the need to contain Russian aggression. There are good reasons for concern about Russia’s intentions and capabilities, as elaborated at the recent Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn. But in the last ... Read more »

The ‘Sovereign’ according to Ola Tunander

Posted by Åshild Kolås on Monday, 30 May 2016

On Friday 27 May 2016, PRIO celebrated Ola Tunander’s 30-year academic career with a seminar on ‘Sovereignty, Subs and PSYOPS’, and a reception. The celebration was, of course, focused on Ola and his work, spanning topics from the geopolitics and organic state theory of Rudolf Kjellén to the 27 October ... Read more »

The Precarious China-Russia Partnership Erodes Security in East Asia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 22 April 2016

With the explosion of the Ukraine crisis in spring 2014, Russia made a determined effort to upgrade its strategic partnership with China and achieved instant success. Large-scale economic contracts were signed in a matter of a few months, and the military parades in Moscow and Beijing in respectively May and ... Read more »

Myanmar's Ethnic Minorities Marginalized More

Posted by Marte Nilsen & Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 13 April 2016

For the first time in over half a century, Myanmar has a government with a popular mandate, led by the National League for Democracy (NLD). Although the Myanmar armed forces still have extensive political powers under the 2008 constitution, and may seriously curtail the independent action of the new government, ... Read more »

The Politics of Fun in Egypt

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Monday, 4 April 2016

Yes, this little piece will relate to Asef Bayat’s gem of an article ‘Islamism and the politics of fun.’ But first a comment on the current goings-on in Egypt. The last time I visited the country, in early February, the news about the murder of Giulio Regeni broke. The Italian ... Read more »

India’s Nuclear Behavior

Posted by ​Kanica Rakhra on Wednesday, 30 March 2016

India’s Nuclear Policy has been the subject of debate for many decades now. A non-signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, the country has pursued an atomic bomb amid regional tensions and precarious relations with its neighbors. India has also used its nuclear weapon to bolster its national identity tied to ... Read more »

Ceasefire as a Fig Leaf for Carnage and Confusion

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 25 February 2016

Just a couple of weeks ago, Aleppo was seen as a crucial battlefield in the Syrian civil war and was compared with Sarajevo as a tragedy of intolerable proportions not only by hard-hitting journalists but also by such responsible politicians as Michael Fallon, UK Defence Secretary. Yet presently, this devastated ... Read more »

New Developments in Drone Proliferation: How Africa was Deployed to Rescue Drones

Posted by Kristin B. Sandvik on Wednesday, 24 February 2016

Debates on global drone proliferation tend to assume that adoption and adaptation of drones follow a universal logic and that the drone industry is a singular thing, geographically concentrated in the Global North. In this blog post I argue that these assumptions make it difficult to critically assess the growth ... Read more »

The Iranian Nuclear Issue

Posted by Gregory M. Reichberg on Thursday, 18 February 2016

I have been tracking the Iranian nuclear issue for about ten years. Important in its own right, this issue also has significant implications for the international agenda on nuclear weapons disarmament. Let it be noted at the outset that the expression in question – “Iranian Nuclear Issue” – is a freighted ... Read more »

Unfriended: How Russia's Syria Quagmire is Costing it Middle Eastern Allies

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 8 January 2016

At a time when most Russians were taking a long break from politics until after the Orthodox Christmas on January 7, there has been no respite in Russia’s air operations in Syria, nor in the quarrel with Turkey. Rather than focus on the bread-and-butter issues of making ends meet, Russian ... Read more »

Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline with Military Bravado

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 January 2016

President Vladimir Putin concluded 2015 with the approval of a revised National Security Strategy, which defines the strengthening of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a threat and commits to countering it by securing the unity of Russian society and by building up the country’s defense capabilities. In the ... Read more »

A Drama in Several Acts

Posted by Marte Heian-Engdal on Tuesday, 22 December 2015

Nearly five years since Tunisia’s revolution began to spread, the hopes and expectations of democracy have been replaced by despair and fear of what will follow. This has been an important and proud autumn for Tunisia and the Tunisian people. Ever since the Chair of the Nobel Committee, Kaci Kullmann ... Read more »

Bosnia 20 Years On

Posted by Inger Skjelsbæk on Monday, 21 December 2015

The Dayton agreement ended the war. But with children from different ethnic groups unable to attend school together in many places, its intentions concerning reconciliation have unfortunately not been realized. “Of course I don’t need good grades in Bosnian when I’ve got good grades in English,” says a 13-year-old to ... Read more »

Myanmar: What now for Women and Minorities?

Posted by Iselin Frydenlund on Thursday, 17 December 2015

Will Aung San Suu Kyi dare to engage in a direct confrontation with religious nationalism and insist that the new parliament reconsider Myanmar’s laws on
 race and religion? Doing so could cost her dearly. Sexual violence Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) has been in a continuous state of civil war ... Read more »

Dialogue is Not Enough

Posted by Kristian Takvam Kindt on Thursday, 10 December 2015

Why did Tunisia succeed in reaching a compromise that led to democratic development, while other countries in the region have failed? The answer does not lie in the large numbers of activists and demonstrators. There were also massive crowds protesting against the regimes in countries such as Egypt and Yemen. ... Read more »

The Syrian Refugee Crisis & The Two Europes

Posted by Christian Joppke on Tuesday, 1 December 2015

In the early September days of 2015, for the second time in a quarter century, Hungary became the site of a European refugee drama. In 1989, during the months preceding the fall of the Berlin Wall, hundreds of East Germans trying to flee their “Workers and Peasants State” had besieged ... Read more »

Russia Breaks the Partnership with Turkey – but Builds a New One with Iran

Posted by Pavel Baev & Joakim Brattvoll on Thursday, 26 November 2015

De-escalation of the crisis between Russia and Turkey, caused by the first ever air fight between them resulting in a destruction of a Russian Su-24, has suddenly become the hottest issue in global affairs. What has been overshadowed by this clash of military missions and political ambitions is the strengthening ... Read more »

What is the Russian Military good for?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 5 November 2015

The Russian military intervention in Syria—launched in a great rush just over a month ago — came as a surprise; perhaps not as shocking as the swift occupation and annexation of Crimea, but a surprise nevertheless. But does Russia’s ability to surprise and to project force in Syria prove, as ... Read more »

A Predicted Tragedy

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Tuesday, 27 October 2015

The last time that the Palestinians staged a collective uprising in anger and frustration was in 2000. Why is there a new wave of violence now? The Palestinians have been betrayed by everyone: by their own leaders, by Israel, and by the international community. Their sense of hopelessness has bred ... Read more »

Russia's Syrian Entanglement: Can the West Sit Back and Watch?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Saturday, 10 October 2015

For observers who are confined by the boundaries of conventional strategic sense, every day of Russia’s military intervention in Syria brings fresh surprises. Indiscriminate strikes against Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups (which could not possibly be mistaken for ISIS) were followed by deliberate violations of Turkey’s airspace, and then by ... Read more »

Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet – Immediate Thoughts on the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Friday, 9 October 2015

The choice of the Tunisian quartet as the receiver of the Nobel peace prize is surprising, but by no means unreasonable. Unlike the case of US President Barack Obama, who received the prize for his intentions rather than his achievements, this time, the prize is awarded to politicians who are ... Read more »

Putin's Syrian intrigue has yielded zero dividends

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 1 October 2015

Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war appeared to gain momentum every day over the past month, up until President Vladimir Putin’s address to the UN General Assembly on September 28th. The intention behind moving troops and equipment to Syria, while denying these deployments, was quite possibly to build ... Read more »

Non-violent Resistance and Double Repression

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Tuesday, 29 September 2015

January 12, 2013: Israeli armed forces dismantle a peaceful Palestinian sit-in in the West Bank, arresting several of the organizers. July 6, 2012: the Palestinian Authority’s security forces violently attack a peaceful demonstration against normalization with Israel in Ramallah, the West Bank. These episodes illustrate the predicament of Palestinian non-violent ... Read more »

How Russia and America make the same mistakes in Syria

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 21 September 2015

Russia’s apparent escalation in Syria is less dramatic than it seems, but it still represents another depressing development in the ongoing nightmare of the Syrian civil war. While it appears no Russian troops are engaged in fighting, the volume of military cargo delivered from Russia to Syria by sea and ... Read more »

World War II Becomes a Chinese War

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Thursday, 3 September 2015

70 years ago, Japan signed an agreement of formal surrender on an American warship in Tokyo Bay. The anniversary of this event will be marked in Beijing today, September 3rd by a massive military parade in which Chinese and Russian soldiers march together. President Xi Jinping’s most important guest during ... Read more »

Putin's Pivot to Asia: Profit-Free, but Problem-Rich

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 September 2015

The bilateral meeting in Beijing will be demonstratively cordial but loaded with mutual disappointment. Putin cannot fail to see that his hopes for harvesting rich dividends from closer Russian ties with China have failed to materialize and delivered him to a position of one-sided dependency. Xi, meanwhile, has few doubts ... Read more »

The “Sunnification” of Turkey´s Foreign Policy

Posted by Pinar Tank on Monday, 17 August 2015

Two months is a long time in politics – even more so in Turkish politics. At the beginning of June, the Turkish election brought a wave of hope across the country with results that broke the majoritarian (and authoritarian) rule of the reigning Justice and Development Party (AKP). The pro-Kurdish ... Read more »

Russia’s Reputation Sinks Precipitously in International Opinion Polls

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Seven years ago, Russia launched its week-long war with Georgia. And what seemed then a victory can now be recognized as one of the worst August disasters in Russian history. On the one hand, it is true that the war generated a moment of national unity, which was deeply false ... Read more »

Russia Insists on own Impunity, Gains Pariah Status

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Exactly 40 years ago, the Soviet Union signed the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), accepting commitments to respect the norms of international behavior and to observe the standards of human rights. The Kremlin had, in fact, no intention to relax domestic pressure ... Read more »

How Long can Putin Continue doing Nothing?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Putin has always preferred to postpone decisions until the last possible moment and to keep his lieutenants and international counterparts in the dark about his intentions. This summer, however, he is arguably wasting time and maneuvering himself into a corner, from which the only escape will be jumping into another ... Read more »

14 March 1988: East Asia's Last Interstate Battle

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Friday, 24 July 2015

Since the Sino-Vietnamese war of 1979 – a period of 36 years – there has not been one single war between states in the whole of East Asia, a region comprising one third of mankind, and which was ravaged by some of the word’s worst wars from the 1840s to ... Read more »

The China Factor in Russian Support for the Iran Deal

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 22 July 2015

The United States needed Russian support to conclude the Iranian nuclear deal. As U.S. President Barack Obama acknowledged, “we would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us.” But with U.S.-Russian relations at their lowest point since the end of the Cold ... Read more »

The Air Tragedy that Condemns Putin's Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 July 2015

It was a year ago last Friday (July 17) that the Boeing 777 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of 298 lives. The shock of that tragedy awakened Europe and the wider global ... Read more »

Putin Flexes Diplomatic Muscles on Iran

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 17 July 2015

“Russia has been rather ambivalent about striking the deal, not because it is worried about the Iranian nuclear program, but because it is worried about the Iranian oil,” said Pavel K. Baev, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Mr. Baev noted that at several crucial points in ... Read more »

Greek Agreement and Iranian Deal leave Russia Disappointed and Irrelevant

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 15 July 2015

It was a rare coincidence in world politics that two pivotal and protracted negotiation processes—the European Union’s talks with Greece on managing its debt, and the “P5+1” talks on managing the Iranian nuclear program—both culminated in crucial agreements at the start of this week (July 13–14). Russia was a party ... Read more »

The Genocide in Srebrenica

Posted by Inger Skjelsbæk on Friday, 10 July 2015

On 11 July this year, a number of heads of state and foreign ministers, including Bill Clinton, will meet on a plain seven kilometres outside Srebrenica. They will be there to commemorate the fact that it is twenty years since over 8000 men and boys were killed while the women were ... Read more »

The Rise of Political Buddhism in Myanmar

Posted by Marte Nilsen on Tuesday, 7 July 2015

Narrow Burman-Buddhist nationalism remains the country’s biggest barrier to sustainable political reform. The Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion, known by the Burmese acronym Ma Ba Tha, is gaining ground in Myanmar. It has also been receiving increased international attention—last month for its proposal to ban Muslim headscarves ... Read more »

ASEAN’s Rohingya Challenge: Can ASEAN fail to act and yet be a Community?

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 17 June 2015

A human tragedy has been unfolding in the Bay of Bengal. Thousands of poor Rohingya and Bangladeshi refugees and job seekers have been the victims of xenophobia, cynical smugglers and incapable governance. What has ASEAN done? So far very little. Yet this crisis is exactly the kind of non-traditional trans-national ... Read more »

Celebrating Russia Day, the country finds itself with no future

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 June 2015

The pattern of brinksmanship, in which air incidents in the Baltic theater interplay with tank and artillery engagements in the Donbas war zone, is so obviously detrimental to Russia’s interests that a determined effort at breaking it appears inevitable. Western leaders focus on measures for containing Russia, expecting that the ... Read more »

Aborted Offensive in Donbass on the Eve of the G7 Summit

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 9 June 2015

The swiftly terminated rebel attack on Maryinka was probably meant to be Putin’s “warning shot” to the Western leaders. But he only succeeded in reminding them about the near certainty (rather than risk) of a summer spasm in the “hybrid war.” While the Russian battalions concentrated in the war zone ... Read more »

Turkey's Critical Election

Posted by Pinar Tank on Friday, 5 June 2015

With only days to go before legislative elections in Turkey on Sunday, 7 June, the political uncertainty of its possible outcomes are filling newspaper columns. This is a change from the past two elections where a victory for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) was almost a foregone conclusion. ... Read more »

Weakening Russia Curtails Access to Publicly Available Information

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 2 June 2015

These attempts at curtailing the flow of information and persecuting the disseminators of politically undesirable news (including bloggers) might appear old-fashioned and inspired by Soviet-era KGB practices, which are held dear by Putin and his henchmen. They are, nevertheless, more effective than the spread of Internet-based social networks would suggest—and ... Read more »

After the swaggering celebrations, a "Now what?" moment for Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 May 2015

The extraordinary pomp around the celebration of the V-Day made it possible for Putin to sustain the momentum of mobilization created by last year’s Crimean anschluss. Now that the fanfare and fireworks have fallen silent, this momentum may dissipate—and Putin, who has made himself into the central figure in militarized ... Read more »

Putin's Political Pause Amid National Mobilization

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 May 2015

The focal point for the “patriotic” propaganda for the last several months has been the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia), which is now just a few days away. Reflections on the horrible ... Read more »

Earthquake in Nepal and we are Safe

Posted by Åshild Kolås on Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Peace researchers often have the opportunity to witness the ‘real world’ of conflict and post-conflict during fieldwork in countries such as Nepal. In some cases we also cooperate with local institutions where we benefit from working with fellow peace researchers and other partners. In Nepal we have had the great ... Read more »

Recognising and Denying Armenian Losses in Cyprus

Posted by Olga Demetriou on Friday, 24 April 2015

Cyprus was one of the first countries to recognise the Armenian genocide, but the relationship that the country has with its own Armenian population is more complicated than it seems. The centenary of the Armenian Genocide on 24 April this year comes amidst heightened speculation about a resumption of peace ... Read more »

Comics and the Liberation from Patriarchy

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Thursday, 23 April 2015

New media, new content Warning: This is all work in progress, so it leaves much to be desired. But this subject is so fun working on that I wanted to share what I have even if it is still pretty undeveloped. OK, here goes: During the last few years, the ... Read more »

Beware of Putin Talking Shop

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 April 2015

“Boring” is perhaps the prevalent impression of President Vladimir Putin’s televised four-hour-long Q & A session that aired last Thursday (April 16), which was meant to demonstrate his good health and relaxed attitude to the great many problems worrying his loyal subjects…. […] Typically, such commentary by high officials is ... Read more »

Apocalypse a Bit Later: The Meaning of Putin’s Nuclear Threats

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

The words that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for describing the nuclear angle of the special operation for seizing and annexing Crimea in March 2014, might appear so odd that it is well-nigh impossible to make sense of them. “Yes, we were ready,” he said to the question about whether ... Read more »

Iranian Deal leaves Russia in Deeper Isolation

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 April 2015

While Iran appears to be recognizing the need to reform its domestic politics and change its attitude toward the West, Russia is turning into a massively corrupt police state and is apparently thriving in the atmosphere of confrontation. The contrast between these two regimes has become strikingly sharp as nuclear ... Read more »

An Uncertain Future in Afghanistan

Posted by Arne Strand on Thursday, 26 March 2015

Under the tripartite agreement entered into between Afghanistan, Norway and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Afghans who are refused asylum in Norway have two choices: either to take advantage of the assisted repatriation programme; or to reject this offer and risk being forcibly deported and returned to Kabul ... Read more »

A Muted Voice? Religious Actors and Civil Society in Post-2001 Afghanistan

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken & Kaja Borchgrevink on Wednesday, 25 March 2015

In general, religious actors are not perceived as possible contributors to civil society. In Afghanistan, where religion permeates society and politics, and where religious leaders and networks bear considerable influence, this is particularly problematic. There is a need for a thorough rethink of what civil society is, and the role ... Read more »

A Young and Fragile Time in Afghanistan

Posted by Shaharzad Akbar on Tuesday, 24 March 2015

Afghanistan’s “youth boom” means that the country has a large generation of young people with high expectations for a better future – and high levels of frustration. Such a situation provides fertile ground for radicalization. Afghanistan’s population is estimated to have grown by as much as 2.4 per cent in ... Read more »

Two Summits and a Military Exercise

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 24 March 2015

While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity. Just another push and a couple more bribes, they argue, will convince some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that Narva or Spitsbergen are not worth fighting for, ... Read more »

How can Norway best Support Afghanistan?

Posted by Arne Strand & Liv Kjølseth on Monday, 23 March 2015

The current situation in Afghanistan is the subject of two opposing narratives: one is a success story about international support and involvement since 2001; the other is a story where much has gone wrong and everything can only get worse. Agreeing on a narrative that is closer to the truth ... Read more »

Basta! Brazilians Move from Apathy to Action

Posted by Pinar Tank on Friday, 20 March 2015

In Rio de Janeiro, when the going gets tough, the tough… often go to the beach. The expanse of blue shoreline lined with small botecos (bars) is a sanctuary from the troubles of everyday life and according to some Cariocas – natives of Rio – the explanation for their relaxed ... Read more »

Putin's Disappearing Act is a Sign of Leadership Crisis

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Since the Ukraine crisis exploded a year ago, Putin’s system of power has rigidified into a uni-centric combination of a police state, kleptocracy and “propagandocracy” (if such a word could be invented), in which no transition of authority can be planned or envisaged. His recent poorly camouflaged and worse explained ... Read more »

Free Rein of Special Services makes Russia Ungovernable

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 March 2015

It took a week for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to produce a pair of plausible suspects in the shocking murder of Boris Nemtsov on February 28. Last Saturday (March 7), FSB Director Aleksandr Bortnikov reported to President Vladimir Putin that two men implicated in the crime were under ... Read more »

Murder that Revealed Truth

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 6 March 2015

As days go by, the pain and shock from the news about Boris Nemtsov murder are turning into sad reflections on Russia’s predicament, and my bottom line goes as following: Nemtsov was a voice in the wilderness of Russian propaganda and self-deception. And his murder has cut away multiple layers of ... Read more »

Between the Mosque and the Temple Mount

Posted by Trond Bakkevig on Friday, 27 February 2015

Unrest on and around the Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount in Jerusalem last autumn caused the Palestinian president, Mahmood Abbas, to warn that the conflict between Israel and Palestine could escalate into a religious war.  The site has extremely powerful national and religious symbolic value for both Palestinians and Israelis. Jordanian ... Read more »

After Debaltsevo - Is there a Chance for Ceasefire?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 25 February 2015

It is entirely correct to say that the “Minsk Two” agreement, reached on February 12, after painstakingly long talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, was broken inside the first week of implementation. Yet, as the battle for Debaltseve has drawn to its predictable end, the opposing ... Read more »

Can Putin trust China?

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Tuesday, 24 February 2015

The Ukraine crisis has made Russia more dependent on China. Putin is popular in Beijing, and Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are the best of friends. But can China save Russia from its crisis? 70 years ago, from 4-11 February 1945, Josef Stalin received US president Franklin D. Roosevelt, ... Read more »

Partnership of Contrarians

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Russia connects with Turkey seeking opportunities in the Middle East. Violent conflicts in the Middle East gained new momentum in 2014, and the forceful multilateral efforts to contain them yielded far from satisfactory results. Both Russia and Turkey have remained aloof from these efforts, and often oppose US-led endeavors but ... Read more »

Ukraine takes Painful Hits - but Must Stay in the Fight

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 11 February 2015

President Vladimir Putin loves to play the “divide-and-deceive” game, imagining that every split between the United States and Europe or inside the European Union is an opportunity to corrupt Western policies, opinions, and values. It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found ... Read more »

Diplomacy Delivers Another Pause for Struggling Ukraine and Sinking Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 February 2015

The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President ... Read more »

The Effect of Proposed US Arms Supplies to Ukraine

Posted by Nic Marsh on Wednesday, 4 February 2015

A report published on Monday by the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that calls for the US to supply Ukraine with arms has generated a lot of discussion on both sides of the Atlantic. Written by eight high ranking former US diplomats, defence ... Read more »

Russia Makes Haste in Severing Ties with Europe

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 3 February 2015

Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to ... Read more »

Amid Mounting Domestic Troubles, Putin Tries to Regain Initiative in Eastern Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 28 January 2015

The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week (January 22) has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, it has been a welcome return to the path of victory for many in Russia who consume or ... Read more »

Boko Haram does not have the Fire Power of the Islamic State

Posted by Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos on Friday, 23 January 2015

Boko Haram’s influence and cruelty is still increasing. On the 3rd of January the Islamist group first attacked Baga, situated at the riverside of Lake Chad in the north of the State of Borno. They then came back several days later and demolished the entire city and its surrounding villages. ... Read more »

A Third Palestinian Intifada?

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Monday, 19 January 2015

The level of conflict in Jerusalem is now so high that more and more people are talking of a “Third Intifada” – a new popular uprising by Palestinians against the Israeli occupation – that would be centred in Jerusalem. In fact, there is little to suggest that a Third Intifada ... Read more »

Futile Hopes for the Dubious Summit in Astana

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev ... Read more »

Russia Enters New Year Mired in Troubles

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 6 January 2015

The post–New Year holidays in Russia have brought less joy or happy expectations than usual to the country’s elites, the urban middle classes and even to Russia’s millions of labor migrants. Over the past 15 years, all these groups shared in the country’s prosperity, which had grown steadily since President ... Read more »

With Ukraine going strong, Putin becomes lost in the fog of hybrid war

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Last weekend (November 21), Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the EuroMaidan—the public protests in Kyiv that lasted through the hard winter of discontent and brought down the corrupt regime of Viktor Yanukovych on February 21. As its war for state survival continues to rage, the country is in no ... Read more »

An Independent Iraqi Kurdistan?

Posted by Erlend Paasche on Monday, 24 November 2014

A change of prime minister will not resolve Iraq’s structural problems, and while a dysfunctional Iraqi state is reeling from onslaughts by Islamic extremists, the Iraqi Kurds in the north of the country have never been stronger. Even so, we are very unlikely to see an independent Iraqi Kurdistan in ... Read more »

WWII Celebration Plans by Putin and Xi to Score Points

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Monday, 17 November 2014

Russian and Chinese presidents aim to divide US and allies, including Japan, with WWII celebration. When Chinese President Xi Jinping met Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Beijing for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, he stated that “Japan must look at history squarely and more towards the future.” Xi’s carefully ... Read more »

Can Iraq be Fixed?

Posted by Erlend Paasche on Saturday, 15 November 2014

Iraq’s new prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, faces the enormous task of uniting the country. But whatever the outcome, Iraq cannot be restored to how it was before the summer. There is broad agreement that the former Iraqi prime minister, Nour al-Maliki, was a part of the problem, and that his ... Read more »

Putin goes to China, but fails to turn his illusions into reality

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 12 November 2014

In a case of striking symbolism, President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if seeking reassurance against the specter of a mass public uprising. The dismantling of that icon of the Cold War signified a breakthrough in finally achieving ... Read more »

Nationalism under Pressure: Islamic State, Iraq and Kurdistan

Posted by Erlend Paasche on Wednesday, 29 October 2014

Has the Iraqi Kurds’ sense of national identity been strengthened by the emergence of the so-called Islamic State? Not necessarily. If anything, mounting socio-economic and political tensions inside northern Iraq have been tearing at Kurdish nationalism for the last decade. The so-called Islamic State (IS) continues to pose a serious ... Read more »

Norway's Tightrope Walk in Myanmar

Posted by Marte Nilsen, Stein Tønnesson & Emil Jeremic on Thursday, 23 October 2014

Are the people of Myanmar able to distinguish between Norway’s role in promoting peace and the commercial interests of Norwegian businesses? Now that several state-owned Norwegian companies have entered into large and risky ventures in Myanmar, Norway is walking a tightrope between peace and commerce. The maintenance of support for ... Read more »

A Dangerous Census

Posted by Marte Nilsen, Kristin Dalen & Kristin Jesnes on Friday, 17 October 2014

Norway has spent NOK 40 million to help fund a census in Myanmar (Burma). The census results are at odds with previous assumptions and may increase the level of conflict in the country in the run-up to the elections in 2015. Norway must take responsibility. Every country needs to know who ... Read more »

Article 9 and the East Asian Peace

Posted by Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 8 October 2014

World War 1 was primarily a European War. World War 2 was both European and Asian. World War 3 has not yet occurred. If it does, it will be mainly Asian. Provided the pattern of alliances and strategic partnerships continues to look the way it does today, World War 3 ... Read more »

Forget the Economy - It's Geopolitics, Putin

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 October 2014

The trickle of sad and sour economic news continues to exacerbate Russia’s stagnant economic outlook, but the Kremlin authorities remain resolutely indifferent to these negative trends. They presume that the arrival of a “technical” recession does not constitute a political challenge because the “below-middle” classes have rallied around the flag ... Read more »

The Japanese Peace Clause

Posted by Gunnar Rekvig on Monday, 6 October 2014

The peace clause in the Japanese constitution, Article 9, was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in April this year. No doubt some will ask why a Japanese constitutional clause is worthy of the Nobel Peace Prize. An unconventional great power Japan is an unconventional great power with the world’s third ... Read more »

Russia gears up for a new spasm in the hybrid war

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess. Russia used to be able to score some easy points at this seasonal show by denouncing the United States’ unilateralism and hegemonic arrogance. This time ... Read more »

A New Afghan Spring?

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Monday, 29 September 2014

Sitting in Kabul today, watching the Presidential inauguration on local television, it is difficult to say whether we are seeing a new Afghan spring or the onset of a disaster. After weeks and weeks of quarrelling, the two main presidential contenders settled on a power-sharing formula: Ashraf Ghani is the ... Read more »

The pause in the Ukraine war is not Putin's victory

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 September 2014

The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas region) have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are figuring out how to now move forward. In his first 100 days, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has shown the ability ... Read more »

Assaulting Ukraine, Putin dares the West to respond

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 4 September 2014

Just 75 years ago, the devastating war arrived to Europe – and this brave Polish cavalry perished fighting tanks. These days tanks are again rolling – and Europe needs to find a way to stop them. The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that opens in the Welsh ... Read more »

Research Apartheid

Posted by Anja Sletteland on Tuesday, 12 August 2014

Academia has become its own battleground in the Israel-Palestine conflict. As a scholar of the Israel-Palestine conflict, I usually leave the Ben Gurion Airport with vivid images of checkpoints, separation barriers, demolished houses, crammed refugee camps, poverty, settlements, and soldiers. Earlier this summer, before the war broke out in Gaza, ... Read more »

Putin Picks the Worst of all Bad Choices

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 August 2014

With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 6). At ... Read more »

West pushes and eases Putin toward a "Diplomatic solution" in Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Bad news hit the Kremlin thick and fast last week, but on Friday evening (August 1), President Vladimir Putin answered a phone call from US President Barack Obama, who again stressed that the Kremlin’s mounting problems can be resolved diplomatically (, August 1). Putin’s personal responsibility for the war in ... Read more »

Israel and Hamas are Both Just Winging It

Posted by Erica Chenoweth on Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Israel is more than three weeks into Operation Protective Edge. With over 1328 Palestinians and 59 Israelis dead, numerous commentators have weighed in on what each side hopes to gain from the current violence. On the Israeli side, the stated military goal is to permanently diminish Hamas’ capacity and willingness ... Read more »

Putin held Personally Responsible for the War he is Losing

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 29 July 2014

If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with 298 people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have disillusioned him—assuming his subordinates actually informed him about it. The White House statement directly noted: “we have concluded that Vladimir ... Read more »

Putin tours Latin America, but his fate is decided in Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 15 July 2014

The upcoming BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping of the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit, scheduled to take place in Fortaleza, Brazil, on July 15–17, provided an occasion for President Vladimir Putin to make a lengthy tour around Latin America, starting from Cuba last ... Read more »

Moscow Pulls a Diplomatic Pause as the War in Ukraine Rages

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 8 July 2014

The most dramatic turn in the protracted Ukrainian calamity last week was the decision of President Petro Poroshenko to end the ceasefire and resume the offensive against separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Poroshenko had every reason to conclude that the cessation of combat operations plays into rebel hands, ... Read more »

Putin Keeps Retreating from War but Cannot Accept Peace

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 July 2014

The big picture of the Ukrainian conflict has changed significantly during the last week as this troubled state confirmed its hard-made European choice. The hundreds of rebels fighting in the trenches around Slavyansk and the hundreds of thousands of civilians, who are trying to make sense out of the violent ... Read more »

An Own Goal in Brazil

Posted by Kristian Hoelscher on Monday, 16 June 2014

Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff must see off two fast gaining rivals to win reelection in October. Problems during the World Cup might end up being be her political downfall. With the World Cup underway, the eyes of the world are on the football in Brazil. Off the field though, the ... Read more »

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. ... Read more »

Renewed Violence in Pakistan

Posted by Erica Chenoweth on Monday, 9 June 2014

Last night, the Pakistani Taliban (otherwise known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP) allegedly staged a bloody attack on Jinnah International Airport in Karachi. Shahidullah Shahid, TTP’s spokesman, told Agence France-Press that the group launched the attack in revenge for the Pakistani government’s November 2013 killing of TTP leader Hakimullah Mehsud. ... Read more »

The Taliban are an Organized Fighting Force

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken on Sunday, 8 June 2014

A new UN report blames the Taliban for a sharp rise in violence against civilians. The Taliban are an organized fighting force. They combine a relatively strong central command with a networked structure in which each of the various factions operate with considerable independence. Establishing control over certain territories has been ... Read more »

How do we Maximise the Cyprus Peace Dividend?

Posted by Fiona Mullen on Wednesday, 4 June 2014

A solution to the longstanding Cyprus problem could raise per capita incomes by approximately EUR 12,000, expand the size of the economy by around EUR 20 bln and add on average 2.8 percentage points to real GDP growth every year for 20 years. However, it would be naïve to suggest ... Read more »

Thailand’s Fragile Democracy

Posted by Marte Nilsen on Friday, 30 May 2014

The traditional elite clings to an outdated world view. But a military coup offers no solution. ​Two days after the military coup in Thailand at least 13 bombs exploded, approximately simultaneously, in the city of Pattani. Three people, including a five-year-old child, were killed, and approximately 60 people injured. On ... Read more »

The Soma Mining Disaster: A Tragedy Foretold

Posted by Pinar Tank on Friday, 23 May 2014

As the rescue operation into Turkey´s worst industrial accident came to end on Saturday, 17 May, the number of dead was confirmed at 301 (of 787) with scores still unaccounted for. PRIO researcher Pinar Tank has published a post the New Middle East Blog 23 May 2014. Read more »

Business and Peace

Posted by Kristian Berg Harpviken & Harry Tzimitras on Wednesday, 14 May 2014

These days, the Business for Peace Symposium is happening in Oslo. Business leaders from all over the world are gathered to discuss how business can contribute to peace and hinder conflict. Some of the most distinguished guests have arrived from Cyprus, namely Manthos Mavrommatis, Honorary President of the Cyprus Chamber ... Read more »

Electing India's Future

Posted by Jason Miklian & Kristian Hoelscher on Monday, 12 May 2014

In April, 800 hundred million people began casting their ballots all across India in the largest election the world has ever seen. When we think of voting in India, we often picture a poor elderly villager showing a big ink-stained thumb and boasting a wide smile as proof of democracy ... Read more »

Last Chance in the Middle East?

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Friday, 28 March 2014

This week, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 defendants to death after a two-day trial. Finally, after being mostly silent through more than half a year of brutal repression by Egypt’s military regime, Western governments expressed ‘shock’, judging the sentences to be ‘unacceptable’. Whatever the consequences this farcical trial will have ... Read more »

Egypt: Silence Implies Consent

Posted by Jacob Høigilt & Kristian Takvam Kindt on Monday, 24 March 2014

​​Today’s death sentences of 529 supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood must bring an end to the Norwegian Government’s tacit acceptance of the military regime in Egypt. ​Today, an Egyptian court sentenced 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death, the latest in a number of moves towards authoritarian government by ... Read more »

Rwanda, Research and the Wisdom of (Non)Responsiveness (or, Email is a Gift Not a Responsibility)

Posted by Christian Davenport on Monday, 10 March 2014

As I prepare for the 20th anniversary of the Rwandan political violence of 1994 (i.e., the genocide, the interstate war, the civil war and the other forms of activity that are not easily named), I am reminded of earlier correspondence and how the modern period conceives of communication as well ... Read more »

The True Cost of Turkey´s Crisis

Posted by Pinar Tank on Friday, 7 March 2014

One of the foundational concepts of good democratic governance is that of a separation of powers. French Enlightenment philosopher Baron de Montesquieu´s argument for the separation of political power between the three branches – executive, legislative and judiciary – hinges on the notion that power should not be centralized in ... Read more »

12 ways to navigate coverage for the 20th anniversary of Rwanda 1994

Posted by Christian Davenport on Monday, 3 March 2014

It is coming: the 20th anniversary of the Rwandan violence of 1994 (i.e., the interstate war, the civil war, the genocide, the sexual violence and some random wilding or, the genocide and civil war – depending upon who you are listening to).  Yes, it has been 20 years and yes it is ... Read more »

Violence and Non-Violence in Ukraine

Posted by Marianne Dahl on Monday, 24 February 2014

​​​The Ukrainian opposition is more likely to succeed if its campaign remains primarily non-violent, writes Marianne Dahl, Doctoral Researcher at PRIO. ​This is not the first time that Kiev’s streets have been filled with demonstrators wanting to end Viktor Yanukovych’s days in the presidential palace. In 2004, the Orange Revolution ... Read more »

Myanmar's National Census - Helping or Disrupting Peace?

Posted by Marte Nilsen & Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 12 February 2014

In March/April 2014 Myanmar will carry out its first population and housing census in more than 30 years. If carried out properly it may provide reliable data to be used not just by the government, but also by civil society organizations and political parties, as a basis for negotiating the ... Read more »

Ein Hijleh: A new Boost for the Popular Resistance

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Wednesday, 12 February 2014

The grassroots popular resistance movement in the West Bank continues its strategy of reclaiming Palestinian land to highlight how Israel slowly annexes big parts of the West Bank. This time they did not establish a new village, like the case was in early 2013, with Bab al-Shams and its offshoots. ... Read more »

The Syrian Refugee Crisis and Conflict Spillover

Posted by Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Idean Salehyan on Tuesday, 11 February 2014

The Syrian refugee crisis has been heartbreaking to watch. According to the United Nations, over 2.4 million people have fled the country, and many more have been displaced internally. This human tragedy has shocked the world’s conscience and has led for appeals for humanitarian relief. However, does the influx of ... Read more »

Nepal Moves Towards Democracy

Posted by Helge Holtermann & Scott Gates on Saturday, 8 February 2014

Democracy is to a large extent about parties being willing to accept electoral defeat. In Nepal the Maoist Party, previously engaged in guerrilla warfare, has done precisely this. A wave of election boycotts is sweeping across Asia. In Thailand’s election on 2 February the “Democrats” succeeded in preventing voting in ... Read more »

Old Wine in an E-bottle (or, The Text that Mistook Itself for a Tactical Shift)

Posted by Christian Davenport on Friday, 31 January 2014

On January 24th Barbara Walter wrote a fascinating blog entry entitled “The Text that Changed the World”. It noted that the “Ukrainian government” had issued a text message to “thousands of protesters” effectively telling them that they had been busted (i.e., they were identified as participating in a protest event). ... Read more »

The Battle for Bangkok

Posted by Marte Nilsen on Monday, 20 January 2014

In the wake of the power struggle between the political elites in Thailand, we are now seeing a popular uprising. Once again Thailand’s capital is paralysed by demonstrations. The streets are filled with Thai flags and demands that the prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, must step down. “Shut down Bangkok – ... Read more »

No Prospects of Cooling Down: why the Crisis in South Sudan must be Solved Immediately

Posted by Øystein Rolandsen & Maral Mirshahi on Sunday, 22 December 2013

The South Sudan crisis becomes more difficult to solve by the hour. The window of opportunity to avoid a full scale civil war is rapidly closing. But, finding a viable solution is dependent on a precise diagnosis of core issues involved. Read more at the blog of the Norwegian Centre ... Read more »

Diplomatic and Real Realities in the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Posted by Jacob Høigilt on Friday, 25 October 2013

Over the last few years I have encountered a number of professional Western diplomats who express their disbelief in any serious Israeli intention of achieving peace with the Palestinians. To be sure, these diplomats also fault the Palestinian leadership for their ability to bungle almost any initiative and opportunity they ... Read more »

Golden Sunset

Posted by Harry Tzimitras on Thursday, 3 October 2013

The recent crackdown on the Golden Dawn, the extreme right political party in Greece, met with a mixture of feelings on the part of the general Greek public: relief, exaltation, impatience, frustration, uncertainty, even fear. It was also surrounded with a number of questions. For some, just why? For most, ... Read more »