Håvard Strand

Senior Researcher

Håvard Strand
Email: hs@prio.org
Work phone: +47 22 54 77 95
Mobile phone: +47 99 62 83 71

Research Interests

My current research focuses on further development of the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset, the relationship between political institutions and armed conflicts, and the relationship between data structures and statistical estimators.


​​Working experience:

1996-2000: Computer Dept., Faculty of Social Sciences, NTNU
2000-2001: Research Assistant, PRIO
2002-2006: Researcher, PRIO (20% position)
2002-2006: Research Fellow, Dept. of Political Science, UiO
2006-:        Senior Researcher, PRIO


PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.


Recent publications

All publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Skarstad, Kjersti & Håvard Strand (2016) Do human rights violations increase the risk of civil war?, International Area Studies Review 19(2): 107–130.
Gates, Scott; Benjamin Graham; Yonatan Lupu; Håvard Strand & Kaare Strøm (2016) Power Sharing, Protection, and Peace, The Journal of Politics 78(2): 512–526.
Strand, Håvard & Henrik Urdal (2014) Hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing: Can states reduce the risk of armed conflict by banning census data on ethnic groups?, International Area Studies Review 17(2): 167–183.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Jonas Nordkvelle & Håvard Strand (2014) Peace research – Just the study of war?, Journal of Peace Research 51(2): 145–158.
Østby, Gudrun; Håvard Strand; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Ragnhild Nordås (2013) Gender Gap or Gender Bias in Peace Research? Publication Patterns for Journal of Peace Research 1983–2008, International Studies Perspectives 14(4): 493–506.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; & Joakim Karlsen (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050, International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 1–21.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Tollefsen, Andreas Forø; Håvard Strand; & Halvard Buhaug (2012) PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure, Journal of Peace Research 49(2): 363–374.
Strand, Håvard (2011) Deconstructing Civil War: A Rejoinder , Security Dialogue 42(3): 297–302.
Østby, Gudrun; Henrik Urdal; Zulfan Tadjoeddin; S. Mansoob Murshed; & Håvard Strand (2011) Population Pressure, Horizontal Inequalities and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990-2003, Journal of Development Studies 47(3): 377–398.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Mark P. Jones; & Håvard Strand (2006) Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
Strand, Håvard; Nils Petter Gleditsch; & Mirjam E. Sørli (2005) Why Is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East?, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(1): 141–165.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Claire Metelits & Håvard Strand (2003) Posting Your Data: Will You Be Scooped or Will You Be Famous?, International Studies Perspectives 4(1): 89–97.

Book Chapter

Strand, Håvard & Halvard Buhaug (2016) Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, in Backer, David; Ravinder Bhavnani; & Paul Huth, eds, Peace and Conflict 2016. New York: Routledge (19–24).
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2009) Democracy and Civil War, in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).

Non-refereed Journal Article

Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand; & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.

Conference Paper

Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv;Strand, Håvard; & Gates, Scott 2012The Conflict Trap , presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting.
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
Gomsrud, Lars Seland;Gates, Scott; & Strand, Håvard 2009 Surviving the Capitalist Peace: Leaders' Incentives and Economic Freedom, presented at 5th ECPR General Conference, , 10 September.
Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 Youth Bulges, Democratic Elections, and Political Instability, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
Hegre, Håvard;Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.

PRIO Policy Brief

Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Strand & Kaare Strøm (2010) Peace and Democracy – Can We Have Both?, PRIO Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard & Scott Gates (2008) Lessons Learned from Power-sharing in Africa, PRIO Policy Brief, 8. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Buhaug, Halvard; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Report - External Series

Strand, Håvard;Hegre, Håvard;Gates, Scott; & Dahl, Marianne (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization , Working paper .
Strand, Håvard; & Dahl, Marianne (2011) Defining Conflict-Affected Countries, Background Paper prepared for the Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011, : UNESCO.
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard (2010) Consequences of Civil War , Background paper for World Development Report 2011 .

Blog Posts

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war are still at work.​ Since the Korean War, battle casualties have been declining. As a result of the civil wars in Syria and Iraq, casualties have risen to the highest level in 25 years, but are still far below levels of the Cold War. The number of conflicts has also risen in 2013 and 2014, ...

In Defence of the Reviled 20th century

Posted by Håvard Strand & Stein Tønnesson on Wednesday, 30 December 2015

The century of peace. The 20th century laid the foundations for what could make our century a century of peace. The 20th century is often referred to as the bloodiest in human history. Towards the end of that century, the historians Eric Hobsbawm, Gabriel Kolko and Niall Ferguson published general narratives entitled, respectively, Age of Extremes, Century of War, and The War of the World. Last year there were many publications warning against the outbreak of a new world war of the same kind as the one unleashed by the Guns of August one hundred years earlier. Yet, in spite ...

The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are profound. In this two-part post, we examine the development consequences of internal armed conflict. Part 1 focuses on how conflict affects development. Part 2 turns to the conflict trap and the post-2015 development agenda. Development in reverse The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) has investigated the consequences of internal armed ...

Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that conflict has been an important impediment to achieving these goals.  The consequences of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield. PRIO has documented substantial negative effects of conflict on most developmental indicators. The indirect effects of conflict may be as great as the direct effects. There is a clear case for ...

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. How the security forces react is intimately linked to the tactics employed by civil society. Brief Points: Nonviolent revolt is much more likely to succeed. This has been evident in Ukraine and the Arab Spring.  The actions of security forces largely determine the success of popular uprisings, as seen in ...

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