Quantifying Conflict Risk of Agricultural Productivity Changes (CROP)
Led by Halvard Buhaug
Apr 2017 – May 2021
A recent wave of societal upheavals across the Middle East and beyond has accentuated concerns that adverse climatic conditions increase conflict risk. A simple and sweeping climate-conflict effect is not likely but climate variability and extremes can have powerful indirect and conditional effects on political violence. The most plausible mechanism linking these phenomena is adverse agricultural production changes. Yet, little is known about the conditions under which this causal pathway is most likely to materialize.
To get updates on events and project outputs, go visit our Climate and Conflict Blog.
The CROP project addresses this research lacuna head-on. It will be guided by following research challenges:
- Identify key conditions exacerbating the conflict potential of agricultural production changes
- Simulate implications of alternative a scenarios for future conflict risk
- accounting for contexts within which negative agricultural production changes are most likely to result in violent conflict;
- accounting for the relevant social actors involved (rural producers, urban consumers); and
- evaluating the implications of uncovered patterns for future conflict risk through out-of-sample validations and forecasting along state-of-the-art socioeconomic and climate change-related scenarios.
New special issue on climate change and conflict
The Journal of Peace
Research has just published a new special issue on ‘Security implications
of climate change’ (January 2021), guest edited by Nina von Uexkull and Halvard
Buhaug. The special issue contains 12 original research articles and viewpoint
essays, supplemented by an introductory
article by the guest editors that presents a review the state of the art.
This is the second time JPR dedicates a special issue to climate change
and conflict; the first
time was in 2012, edited by Nils Petter Gleditsch. The new issue represents
the most up-to-date collection of studies on the subject. Several articles,
including the introduction, are available as open access.
Read the special issue here.
Successful Doctoral Defense by Jonas Vestby
Jonas Vestby has defended his thesis today, 9 March 2018: 'Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future' at the Institute of Political Science at the University of Oslo.
His trial lecture:
Explaining Ethnic Conflict: Micro-, Meso- and Macro-Approaches
New Blog on Climate and Conflict
- What is the relationship between climate variability, food insecurity, and political violence?
- How does agricultural productivity relate to conflict risk?
- Under what circumstances does extreme weather events affect political stability?
PRIO Spearheads New Climate-Conflict Project
The project will focus on the causal connection between adverse environmental change and discrete social upheavals, with examples including the ongoing civil war in Syria and the early Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt.
A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict
Journal Article in Journal of Politics
Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A dual sector approach
Journal Article in World Development
Vicious circles: Violence, vulnerability, and climate change
Journal Article in Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Food price increase and urban unrest: The role of societal organizations
Journal Article in Journal of Peace Research
De egentlige årsakene til konflikter tåkelegges
Popular Article in Morgenbladet
Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa
Journal Article in Global Environmental Change
Climate-conflict research: A decade of scientific progress
Popular Article in New Security Beat
Is climate change driving global conflict?
Popular Article in Political Violence at a Glance
Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress
Journal Article in Journal of Peace Research
Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria
Journal Article in Journal of Peace Research
Synergies and Trade-Offs in Reaching the Sustainable Development Goals
Journal Article in Sustainability
The World Food Program won the Nobel Peace Prize. Does food aid boost peace?
Popular Article in Washington Post
Drought, Resilience, and Support for Violence: Household Survey Evidence from DR Congo
Journal Article in Journal of Conflict Resolution
Green economy, degradation narratives, and land-use conflicts in Tanzania
Journal Article in World Development
On Growth Projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Journal Article in Global Environmental Politics
Coping with Calamity: Natural Disasters, Armed Conflict and Development Aid
PhD Thesis
Global Security Challenges of Climate Change
Report - External Series
Tracing Armed Conflict over Time: A Reversal of the Recent Decline?
Book Chapter in Peace and Conflict 2017
Food insecurity and unrest
Popular Article in PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog
Matpriser og sosial uro
Popular Article in The Norwegian Atlantic Committee
Does hunger cause conflict?
Popular Article in PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog
Fører matmangel til mer krig?
Popular Article in Bistandsaktuelt
What do the experts think?
Popular Article in PRIO Climate & Conflict Blog
