Reassessing the Role of Democracy: Political Institutions and Armed Conflict (PIAC)

Led by Håvard Hegre
Jan 2012 - Dec 2016


​ See for more information. 

If conflict is the problem, is democracy the solution?  Armed conflict and political violence not only results in devastating direct violence, it also impedes growth, threatens public health, and exacerbates poverty. Academic research on the conflict-reducing effects of democratic institutions provides only ambiguous support for a policy of ‘democratization for peace’. We argue that the ambiguous relationship between democracy and conflict is due to a set of theoretical and methodological shortcomings in the literature, including over-aggregation of democracy indicators, a disregard of  the complexity of political institutions, over-reliance on few sources, treatment of actors as uniform, and an insensitivity to how political institutions work indirectly through their impact on other social conditions such as education and economic growth.

The objective of this project is to reassess the role of democratic political institutions for internal armed conflict. This will be pursued by six related ‘work packages’: (1) develop a theoretical model that identifies equilibrium constellations of various components of political institutions and the socio-economic conditions they exist within, (2) collect data on large number of aspects of political institutions and generate indices of the components specified in the theoretical model, (3) looking more critically at the role electoral fraud, electoral violence, and legislative voting behavior, (4) testing the theoretical model’s empirical implications, (5) investigating the indirect and long-term effects of political institutions, and (6) using the knowledge gained in a forecasting model to evaluate the total effect of complex models and the likely impact of a set of possible policy responses. Together, the six approaches will address the methodological shortcomings in the literature and put the knowledge concerning the relationship between democratic political institutions on a considerably more secure footing, theoretically and empirically.

The project collaborates with the Institutions and Elections Project at Binghamton University to update their collection of data on political institutions and practices, and political elections for all countries in the international system to cover the time-span from 1960 through 2011.

Project description

Recent paper presentations:
Democratic Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1816-2008
The Determinants of Democracy: A Sensitivity Analysis

Research Groups


Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Julian Wucherpfennig & Nils W. Metternich (2017) Introduction: Forecasting in peace research, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 113–124.
Hegre, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug; Katherine V. Calvin; Jonas Nordkvelle; Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Elisabeth Gilmore (2016) Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters 11(5): 054002.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) Prediksjon i internasjonal politikk [Predicting international politics], Internasjonal Politikk 73(4): 467–487.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894215599554.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik (2014) Income Growth and Revolutions, Social Science Quarterly 95(4): 920–937.
Basedau, Matthias; Birte Pfeiffer & Johannes Vüllers (2014) Bad Religion? Religion, Collective Action, and the Onset of Armed Conflict in Developing Countries, Journal of Conflict Resolution 60(2): 226–255.
Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.

PhD Thesis

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2014) Five Essays on the Political Economy of Regime Survival. PhD thesis, Political Science, University of Oslo.

Book Chapter

Hegre, Håvard & Idunn Kristiansen (2016) Global, State, and Individual Security in Quantitative Conflict Research, in Schlag, Gabi; Julian Junk; & Christopher Daase, eds, Transformations of Security Studies: Dialogues, Diversity and Discipline. New York: Routledge (190–215).
Hegre, Håvard & Helge Holtermann (2013) Poverty and Conflict, in Brown, Graham K.; & Arnim Langer, eds, Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing (39–58).

Conference Paper

Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1816-2008, presented at 3rd International Conference on Democracy as Idea and Practice, Oslo, 12–13 January 2012.
Hegre, Håvard; Carl Henrik Knutsen & Espen Geelmuyden Rød (2012) The Determinants of Democracy: A Sensitivity Analysis, presented at merican Political Science Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, January 9.

Report - External Series

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region, E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts, 4. New York: United Nations.
Strand, Håvard; Håvard Hegre; Scott Gates; & Marianne Dahl (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, Working paper. .
Fjelde, Hanne; & Håvard Hegre (2011) Political Corruption and Institutional Stability, Working paper. .


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