Publications 2021

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Bakken, Ingrid Vik & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Civil War and Female Empowerment, Journal of Conflict Resolution 65(5): 982–1009.
Bartusevičius, Henrikas (2021) Physical strength predicts political violence, Evolution and Human Behavior. DOI: 10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2021.03.006.
Bartusevičius, Henrikas; Alexander Bor; Frederik Jørgensen & Michael Bang Petersen (2021) The psychological burden of the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with anti-systemic attitudes and political violence, Psychological Science. DOI: forthcoming.
Borchgrevink, Kaja (2021) Negotiating rights and faith: A study of rights‐based approaches to humanitarian action in Pakistan, Disasters. DOI: 10.1111/disa.12480.
Buhaug, Halvard & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Vicious circles: Violence, vulnerability, and climate change, Annual Review of Environment and Resources 46.
Buhaug, Halvard; Mihai Croicu; Hanne Fjelde & Nina von Uexkull (2021) A Conditional Model of Local Income Shock and Civil Conflict, Journal of Politics 83(1): 354–366.
Carrozza, Ilaria (2021) Legitimizing China's Growing Engagement in African Security: Change within Continuity of Official Discourse, The China Quarterly. DOI: 10.1017/S0305741021000242.
Dyrstad, Karin; Kristin M. Bakke & Helga Malmin Binningsbø (2021) Perceptions of Peace Agreements and Political Trust in Post-War Guatemala, Nepal, and Northern Ireland, International Peacekeeping. DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2020.1869541.
Eck, Kristine; Sophia Hatz; Charles Crabtree & Atsushi Tago (2021) Evade and Deceive? Citizen Responses to Online Surveillance, Journal of Politics (forthcoming).
Erdal, Marta Bivand & Arnfinn H. Midtbøen (2021) ‘Birthplace unknown’: on the symbolic value of the passport for identity-construction among naturalised citizens, Identities. DOI: 10.1080/1070289X.2021.1933827.
Erdal, Marta Bivand & Katrine Fangen (2021) A state-centred conception of nationhood? Norwegian bureaucrats on the nation, Ethnicities. DOI: 10.1177/14687968211012567.
Fangen, Katrine & Lisanne Lichtenberg (2021) Gender and family rhetoric on the German far right, Patterns of Prejudice. DOI: 10.1080/0031322X.2021.1898815: 1–23.
Ganson, Brian & Kristian Hoelscher (2021) Theorising MSMEs in Contexts of Urban Violence, Journal of Illicit Economies and Development 2(2): 222–241.
Gilmore, Elisabeth & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda, WIREs Climate Change. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.722.
Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede & Luke Abbs (2021) Ticked off, but scared off? Riots and the fate of nonviolent campaigns, Mobilization. DOI: Forthcoming.
Gleditsch, Nils Petter (2021) This time is different! Or perhaps not? Neomalthusians and cornucopians in the age of climate change, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 1–9.
Hatay, Mete & Rebecca Bryant (2021) Performing peace: Vernacular reconciliation and the diplomacy of return in Cyprus, Journal of Refugee Studies. DOI: 10.1093/jrs/feab003/6252979.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Peder Landsverk (2021) Can we predict armed conflict? How the first 9 years of published forecasts stand up to reality, International Studies Quarterly.
Horst, Cindy & Tore Vincents Olsen (2021) Transnational Citizens, Cosmopolitan Outlooks? Migration as a Route to Cosmopolitanism, Nordic Journal of Migration Research 11(1): 4–19.
Kamerlin, Shina Caroline Lynn; David J. Allen; Bas de Bruin; Etienne Derat & Henrik Urdal (2021) Journal Open Access and Plan S: Solving Problems or Shifting Burdens?, Development and Change. DOI: 10.1111/dech.12635.
Kolås, Åshild & Lacin Idil Oztig (2021) From towers to walls: Trump’s border wall as entrepreneurial performance, Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space. DOI: 10.1177/23996544211003097.
Kristensen, Anders; Tobias Ide & Henrikas Bartusevičius (2021) First comes the river, then comes the conflict? A qualitative comparative analysis of flood-related political unrest, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 83–97.
Leon, Gabriel; Toke Aidt & Max Satchell (2021) The Social Dynamics of Collective Action: Evidence from the Diffusion of the Swing Riots, 1830-31, Journal of Politics.
Linke, Andrew & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Environmental stress and agricultural landownership in Africa, Global Environmental Change 67: 102237–.
Linke, Andrew & Brett Ruether (2021) Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 114–131.
Lorentzen, Jenny (2021) Women as ‘new security actors’ in preventing and countering violent extremism in Mali, International Affairs 97(3): 721–738.
Martins, Bruno Oliveira & Jocelyn Mawdsley (2021) Sociotechnical Imaginaries of EU Defence: The Past and the Future in the European Defence Fund, Journal of Common Market Studies. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.13197.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Gudmund Horn Hermansen & Carl Henrik Knutsen (2021) Characterizing and Assessing Temporal Heterogeneity: Introducing a Change Point Framework, with Applications on the Study of Democratization, Political Analysis.
Olsson, Louise & Erika Forsberg (2021) Examining Gender Inequality and Armed Conflict at the Subnational Level, Journal of Global Security Studies. DOI: 10.1093/jogss/ogaa023.
Olsson, Louise & Madhav Joshi (2021) War termination and women's political rights, Social Science Research. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2020.102523.
Palik, Júlia (2021) Watchdogs of Pause: The Challenges of Ceasefire Monitoring in Yemen, International Peacekeeping. DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2021.1918004.
Rosvold, Elisabeth Lio & Halvard Buhaug (2021) GDIS, a global dataset of geocoded disaster locations, Scientific Data 8(61).
Schutte, Sebastian; Jonas Vestby; Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration, Nature Communications 12: 2067–.
Tartir, Alaa & Nicolas Florquin (2021) Urban Peace-Building through Community-Based Initiatives to Control SALWs in Libya, Journal of Illicit Economies and Development 2(2): 99–103.
Vesco, Paola; Matija Kovacic; Malcolm Mistry & Mihai Croicu (2021) Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 98–113.
Vestby, Jonas; Halvard Buhaug & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Why do some poor countries see armed conflict while others do not? A dual sector approach, World Development 138: 105273–.
von Uexkull, Nina & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress, Journal of Peace Research 58(1): 3–17.
Wilén, Nina (2021) The Military in the Time of COVID-19: Versatile, Vulnerable, and Vindicating, PRISM 9(2): 21–33.

PhD Thesis

Jdid, Noor (2021) "Taking part in society the way I am" An exploration of active citizenship norms in Denmark and Norway. PhD thesis, Centre for Women’s and Gender Research (SKOK), University of Bergen, Bergen.

Book Chapter

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia and the Arctic: High Ambitions, Modernized Capabilties and Risky Setbacks, in Graeme P. Herd, ed., Russia's Global Reach: a Security and Statecraft Assessment. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (25–33).
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russian Nuclear Instruments and Arms Control Approaches, in Graeme P. Herd, ed., Russia's Global Reach: a Security and Statecraft Assessment. Garmisch-Partenkirchen: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (91–100).
Deglow, Annekatrin & Hanne Fjelde (2021) The Quality of Government and Civil Conflict, in Bågenholm, Andreas; Monika Bauhr; Marcia Grimes; & Bo Rothstein, eds, Oxford University Press Handbook on the Quality of Government. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Krause, Jana & Louise Olsson (2021) Women’s Participation in Peace Processes, in MacGinty, Roger; & Anthony Wanis-St.John, eds, Contemporary Peacemaking: Conflict, Violence and Peace Processes. UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
Nygaard, Lynn P. & Maria Savva (2021) Belonging and becoming in academia: a conceptual framework, in Savva, Maria; & Lynn P. Nygaard, eds, Becoming a Scholar: Cross-cultural reflections on identity and agency in an education doctorate. London: UCL Press (10–26).
Nygaard, Lynn P. (2021) Into the fray: becoming an academic in my own right, in Savva, Maria; & Lynn P. Nygaard, eds, Becoming a Scholar: Cross-cultural reflections on identity and agency in an education doctorate. London: UCL Press (121–135).
Savva, Maria & Lynn P. Nygaard (2021) The 'peripheral' student in academia: an analysis, in Savva, Maria; & Lynn P. Nygaard, eds, Becoming a Scholar: Cross-cultural reflections on identity and agency in an education doctorate. London: UCL Press (154–172).
Wilén, Nina (2021) Justifying Interventions: The Case of ECOWAS in Liberia (Forthcoming), in Simon, Hendrik; & Lothar Brock, eds, The Justification of War and International Order: from Past to Present. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Edited Volume

Jumbert, Maria Gabrielsen; & Elisa Pascucci, eds, (2021) Citizen Humanitarianism at European Borders. London and New York: Routledge. Humanitarian Studies series.
Savva, Maria; & Lynn P. Nygaard, eds, (2021) Becoming a Scholar: Cross-cultural reflections on identity and agency in an education doctorate. London: UCL Press.

Non-refereed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia and Turkey Deconflict Their Geopolitical Moves in the Caucasus, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs.
Tziarras, Zenonas (2021) Energy and Sovereignty in the new Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean, Oxford Energy Forum: 58–61.

Popular Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) A new surge of external aggressiveness?, Washington post, 28 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Amidst seemingly easing tensions, Putin left much unsaid in speech to parliament, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Contradictory US and Russian messaging on the Biden-Putin Geneva summit, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Distortions in Russian economic policy exposed at pompous forum, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Kremlin Tests Limits of New US Administration, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Moscow cannot find opening to boost its role in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Navalny Has Set a Damning Dilemma for Putin's Regime, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Penned in on multiple international issues, Putin strives to show resolve on Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Putin pauses, but Russia's propensity for trouble-making persists, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Putin Postures as a ‘Davos Man’ While Bolstering His Autocracy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia Blackmails and Courts Europe, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia Defiant of White House’s Foreign Policy Agenda, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia finds itself marginalized between China and reuniting West, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia recoils from possibility of stable relations with US, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia tries to counter US moves in the Middle East, in vain, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia’s Looming Year of Predictable Stagnancy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia's historical markers and a hampered future, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Special services aggravate bad governance in Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) The Arctic prelude to a "stabilization" summit, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) The Kremlin's quandry with supporing an isolated Belarus, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Two words that shook Putin's regime, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) War scare is Putin's natural element, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) West's renewed focus on solidarity and coordination perturbs Kremlin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Year 2020 in Review: The Maturation of Russia's Autocracy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 January.
Benjaminsen, Tor Arve; Halvard Buhaug & Stig Jarle Hansen (2021) De egentlige årsakene til konflikter tåkelegges, Morgenbladet, 7 April.
Buhaug, Halvard & Nina von Uexkull (2021) Climate-conflict research: A decade of scientific progress, New Security Beat, 23 February.
Carling, Jørgen (2021) What makes people want to migrate? One chart sums it up, The Startup, 2 February.
Fangen, Katrine (2021) Hvorfor ble muslimer den nye fienden i Norge og Europa? [Why did Muslims become the new enemy in Norway and in Europe?], Forskersonen.no, 10 June.
Hatay, Mete (2021) Insel Unter Einfluss, Wie Ankara versucht, die Geschichte Nordzyperns umzuschreiben [Island Under Influence], Le Monde Diplomatique (Special Edition on Turkey), 2 May.
Hatay, Mete (2021) Kavanoz mu, Direk Ticaret mi? (In Turkish) [Self Isolation or Direct Trade?], Havadis Newspaper, 3 May.
Hatay, Mete (2021) To Kypriako kai to varia skia tis Ankyras (in Greek) [The Cyprus Problem and the deep shadow of Ankara], To Vima Newspaper, 18 April.
Joshi, Madhav & Louise Olsson (2021) What's at stake for women in Afghanistan, Political Vioelnce at a Glance, 15 April.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Håvard Hegre & Peder Landsverk (2021) Kan vi forutse krig? Studier gir grunn til optimisme [Can we predict conflict? Studies give cause for optimism], Aftenposten, 26 January.
Tziarras, Zenonas & Jalel Harchaoui (2021) What Erdogan Really wants in the Eastern Mediterranean, Foreign Policy, 19 January.
von Uexkull, Nina & Halvard Buhaug (2021) Is climate change driving global conflict?, Political Violence at a Glance, 1 February.

Conference Paper

Olsson, Louise; Patty Chang & Angela Muvumba Sellström (2021) Understanding E10 strategies and influence: Sweden and Women, Peace and Security in the UN Security Council, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, Online, April 6.

PRIO Policy Brief

Nagel, Robert; Ragnhild Nordås; Gudrun Østby; Siri Aas Rustad & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Children at Risk of Wartime Sexual Violence, 1990–2019, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Sagård, Tora (2021) Who Is Likely to Support Terrorism? Testing the Assumptions behind Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE), Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Strand, Håvard & Håvard Hegre (2021) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2020, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Stai, Nora Kristine; Ida Rødningen; Louise Olsson & Andreas Forø Tollefsen (2021) Breaking Down Barriers for Norway’s Deployment of Military Women, GPS Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Clausen, Maria Louise (2021) Piloting Humanitarian Biometrics in Yemen, MidEast Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2021) Afghan Peace Will Require a Neighborly Concert, PRIO Policy Brief, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Harpviken, Kristian Berg (2021) The Foreign Policy of the Afghan Taliban, PRIO Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Carrozza, Ilaria & Marie Sandnes (2021) Studying Diversity in European Academia: Transparency and Access to Syllabi on African Politics, Peace and Conflict, PRIO Policy Brief, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Horst, Cindy & Hassan Aden (2021) Refugee Education: A Long-Term Investment, PRIO Policy Brief, 4. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Andersson, Magnus Seland & Hilde Henriksen Waage (2021) The Geopolitics of Syria’s Reconstruction, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Bertelli, Davide; Marta Bivand Erdal; Kacper Szulecki; Anatolie Cosciug; Angelina Kussy; Gabriella Mikiewicz & Corina Tulbure (2021) Migrant Political Engagement and Voting from Abroad: Insights from Interviews with Polish and Romanian Migrants in Barcelona and Oslo, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Hagen-Zanker, Jessica & Gemma Hennessey (2021) What Do We Know about the Subjective and Intangible Factors That Shape Migration Decision-Making?, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.
Hauge, Wenche Iren (2021) “Nobody Listens to Us”: Minors in DDR Processes – The Gender Dimension, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Biong Deng Kuol, Luka; & Christopher Oringa (2021) Is Education a Pathway to Fostering Civicness and a Resilient Social Contract in Africa? The Case of South SudanLondon: The South Sudan Studies Association (SSSA) and the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE).
Jumbert, Maria Gabrielsen; Kristoffer Lidén; John Karlsrud; Salla Turunen; Astri Suhrke; & Antonio De Lauri (2021) Protection of Civilians – Norway in the Security Council, CMI Report, 2021. Chr. Michelsen Institute.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Abbey Steele; Helga Malmin Binningsbø; Michael Weintraub; Christopher Fariss; Pablo Ruiz Hiebra; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Pablo Ruiz Hiebra, eds, (2021) Lights and Shadows of the Peace Agreement Implementation in Colombia: Attitudes and Perceptions in the PDET Territories, PRIO-UNDP joint report. .

Report - External Series

Aslany, Maryam; Jørgen Carling; Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva; & Tone Sommerfelt (2021) Systematic review of determinants of migration aspirations, QuantMig deliverable, 2,2. Southampton: University of Southampton.
Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Russia and Turkey: Stretegic Partners and Rivals, Russie.Nei.Reports, 35. Paris: IFRI.
Carling, Jørgen; & Mathilde Bålsrud Mjelva (2021) Survey instruments and survey data on migration aspirations, QuantMig project deliverable, 2. Southampton: University of Southampton.
Hatay, Mete (2021) Varosha: Between Human Rights and Realpolitik, FES Briefing. Nicosia: FES Cyprus.

Newsletter

Elvebakken, Johanne Rokke (2021) PRIO Gender, Peace and Security Update - March 2021, PRIO Gender, Peace and Security Update, 2021: PRIO.

Book Review

Baev, Pavel K. (2021) Review of Mikhail Suslov, ed., Geopolitical Imagination: Ideology and Utopia in Post-Soviet Russia, in Journal of Peace Research .
Fangen, Katrine (2021) Review of Cynthia Miller-Idriss: Hate in the Homeland: The New Global Far Right, book review, in Norsk sosiologisk tidsskrift 5(3): 63–66.
Tønnesson, Stein (2021) Review of A. S. Bhalla, ed., Asia's Trouble Spots: The Leadership Question in Conflict Resolution, in Journal of Peace Research Book Notes .