Håvard Hegre

Research Professor

Håvard Hegre
Email: Hhegre@prio.no
Mobile phone: 48 09 53 21

Research Interests

 




Background

​​​​Also see my personal web page.

Working experience:

Research Professor, PRIO (2005– )
Associate Editor, Journal of Peace Research (2004–2006, 2010– )
Member of Journal of Peace Research editorial committee (1999– )
Member of editorial board Political Science Research and Methods (2012– )
Member of editorial board International Studies Review (2013– )
Researcher, PRIO (1999–2001, 2003–2005)
Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo (2008–2012)
University fellow, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo (2000–2001, 2003–2004)
Economist, The World Bank (2001–2003)
Research Assistant, PRIO (1989, and 1991–1999)
Managing Editor, Journal of Peace Research (1990–91)

  • Education:

    Dr. Philos in Political Science, University of Oslo (November 2004)
    Cand.polit. in Political Science, University of Oslo (August 1999)
    Cand.mag, University of Oslo in Musicology, History of Ideas, Computer Science, and Statistics (1995). 




  • Research Groups

    Full member:

    PRIO Departments

    Current
    Historical

    PRIO Projects

    Ongoing:
    Finished:

    Events

    PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

    Publications

    Recent publications

    Gilmore, Elisabeth; Halvard Buhaug; & Håvard Hegre (2016) Maintaining security: What can be done to prevent the pressures of climate change leading to conflict?, Climate 2020. Rising to the Challenge. London: United Nations Association - UK.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).

    All publications

    Peer-reviewed Journal Article

    Hegre, Håvard; Halvard Buhaug; Katherine V. Calvin; Jonas Nordkvelle; Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Elisabeth Gilmore (2016) Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways, Environmental Research Letters 11(5): 054002.
    Wig, Tore; Håvard Hegre & Patrick M. Regan (2015) Updated data on institutions and elections 1960–2012: presenting the IAEP dataset version 2.0, Research & Politics 2(2): 1–11.
    Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
    Buhaug, Halvard; Jonas Nordkvelle; Thomas Bernauer; Tobias Böhmelt; Michael Brzoska; Joshua W. Busby; Antonio Ciccone; Hanne Fjelde; Erik Gartzke; Nils Petter Gleditsch; Jack A. Goldstone; Håvard Hegre; Helge Holtermann; Vally Koubi; Jasmin S. A. Link; Peter Michael Link; Päivi Lujala; John O'Loughlin; Clionadh Raleigh; Jürgen Scheffran; Janpeter Schilling; Todd G. Smith; Ole Magnus Theisen; Richard S. J. Tol; Henrik Urdal & Nina von Uexküll (2014) One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict, Climatic Change 127(3): 391–397.
    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; & Joakim Karlsen (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050, International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 1–21.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
    Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Hultman, Lisa (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations, 2010-2035 , Lecture Notes In Computer Science 6589325–332.
    Hegre, Håvard; John R. Oneal; & Bruce M. Russett (2010) Trade Does Promote Peace: New Simultaneous Estimates of the Reciprocal Effects of Trade and Conflict, Journal of Peace Research 47(6): 763–774.
    Raleigh, Clionadh;Linke, Andrew;Hegre, Håvard; & Karlsen, Joakim (2010) Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset: Special Data Feature , Journal of Peace Research 47(5): 651–660.
    Raleigh, Clionadh & Håvard Hegre (2009) Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War: A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis, Political Geography 28(4): 224–238.
    Hegre, Håvard (2009) Trade Dependence or Size Dependence?: The Gravity Model of Trade and the Liberal Peace , Conflict Management and Peace Science 26(1): 26–45.
    Østby, Gudrun; Clionadh Raleigh; & Håvard Hegre (2009) Poverty and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia, Journal of Conflict Resolution 53(4): 298–623.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Gravitating toward War. Preponderance May Pacify, but Power Kills, Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(4): 566–589.
    Elbadawi, Ibrahim;Milante, Gary; & Hegre, Håvard (2008) Introduction: The Aftermath of Civil War , Journal of Peace Research 45(4): 451–459.
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Kathryn Furlong; Håvard Hegre; Bethany Ann Lacina & Taylor Owen (2006) Conflicts over Shared Rivers: Resource Wars or Fuzzy Boundaries?, Political Geography 25(4): 361–382.
    Furlong, Kathryn; Nils Petter Gleditsch & Håvard Hegre (2006) Geographic Opportunity and Neomalthusian Willingness: Boundaries, Shared Rivers, and Conflict, International Interactions 32(1): 79–108.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Mark P. Jones; & Håvard Strand (2006) Institutional Inconsistency and Political Instability: Polity Duration, 1800-2000, American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 893–908.
    Toset, Hans Petter Wollebæk; Nils Petter Gleditsch; & Håvard Hegre (2000) Shared Rivers and Interstate Conflict, Political Geography 19(8): 971–996.

    Book Chapter

    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
    Hegre, Håvard & Idunn Kristiansen (2016) Global, State, and Individual Security in Quantitative Conflict Research, in Schlag, Gabi; Julian Junk; & Christopher Daase, eds, Transformations of Security Studies: Dialogues, Diversity and Discipline. New York: Routledge (190–215).
    Hegre, Håvard & Helge Holtermann (2013) Poverty and Conflict, in Brown, Graham K.; & Arnim Langer, eds, Elgar Handbook of Civil War and Fragile States. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing (39–58).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2009) Democracy and Civil War, in Handbook of War Studies III. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press (155–192).
    Hegre, Håvard; & Fjelde, Hanne(2009) Democratization and Post-Conflict Transitions Peace and Conflict 2010. : (79–90).
    Hegre, Håvard; & Fjelde, Hanne(2009) Post-Conflict Democracy and Conflict Recurrence Peace and Conflict 2010. : Paradigm Publishers(79–90).
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Håvard Hegre (2008) Paqja dhe demokracia [Peace and Democracy], in Demokracia – Kushtet Dhe Pasojat. (279–301).

    Non-refereed Journal Article

    Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Strand; & Henrik Urdal (2009) Nils Petter Gleditsch: A Lifetime Achiever, European Political Science 8(1): 79–89.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Svar til Elster [Response to Elster] , Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 25(4): 394–396.
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) Elster på tomgang [Elster on Autopilot] , Nytt Norsk Tidsskrift 25(1): 90–93.

    Conference Paper

    Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Sirianne Dahlum & Joakim Karlsen (2015) Forecasting Regime Type, 2014‐2100, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, 18–21 February 2015.
    Hegre, Håvard;Knutsen, Carl Henrik; & Rød , Espen Geelmuyden 2012The Determinants of Democracy: A Sensitivity Analysis , presented at American Political Science Association Annual Convention.
    Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv;Strand, Håvard; & Gates, Scott 2012The Conflict Trap , presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting.
    Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2012 Governance and Conflict Relapse, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego 1-4 April 2012, , .
    Hegre, Håvard 2012Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization, 1816-2008 , presented at 3rd International Conference on Democracy as Idea and Practice, Oslo, 12-13 January 2012.
    Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
    Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.
    Hegre, Håvard;Strand, Håvard; & Urdal, Henrik 2008 The Future of Armed Conflict: Predicting the Incidence of Conflict, 2007-2030, presented at 49th Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, , 26–29 March.
    Østby, Gudrun;Hegre, Håvard; & Raleigh, Clionadh 2007 Economic Deprivation and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia, presented at Polarization and Conflict Meeting, , 7–9 June.

    PRIO Policy Brief

    Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
    Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
    Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

    PRIO Paper

    Buhaug, Halvard; Håvard Hegre & Håvard Strand (2010) Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Variability and Civil War, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

    Report - Other

    Gilmore, Elisabeth; Halvard Buhaug; & Håvard Hegre (2016) Maintaining security: What can be done to prevent the pressures of climate change leading to conflict?, Climate 2020. Rising to the Challenge. London: United Nations Association - UK.
    Buhaug, Halvard; Scott Gates; Håvard Hegre; & Håvard Strand (2007) Global Trends in Armed Conflict, Globale Norge - hva nå?. Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
    Collier, Paul; Lani Elliott; Håvard Hegre; Anke Hoeffler; Marta Reynal-Querol; & Nicholas Sambanis (2003) Breaking the Conflict Trap: Civil War and Development Policy, World Bank Policy Research Report, 56793. Washington, DC: World Bank.

    Report - External Series

    Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region , E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts Issue No. 4 , 4. New York: United Nations.
    Strand, Håvard;Hegre, Håvard;Gates, Scott; & Dahl, Marianne (2012) Why Waves? Global Patterns of Democratization , Working paper .
    Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region: An Overview, UN Doc E/ESCWA/ECRI/2011/1, 25 August, : UN ESCWA.
    Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region, Background paper for UN study The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region, : .
    Fjelde, Hanne; & Hegre, Håvard (2011) Political Corruption and Institutional Stability , Working paper .
    Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard (2010) Consequences of Civil War , Background paper for World Development Report 2011 .
    Hegre, Håvard (2008) The Nature and Causes of Violent Conflicts in Africa, Background paper for African Development Report 2008, : .
    Collier, Paul;Chauvet, Lisa; & Hegre, Håvard (2008) The Security Challenge in Conflict-Prone Countries. A Challenge Paper for the Copenhagen Consensus, Copenhagen Consensus Conflicts Challenge Papers, : .
    Gleditsch, Nils Petter; Lene Siljeholm Christiansen; & Håvard Hegre (2007) Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 4242. .

    Blog Posts

    The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

    Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

    War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are profound. In this two-part post, we examine the development consequences of internal armed conflict. Part 1 focuses on how conflict affects development. Part 2 turns to the conflict trap and the post-2015 development agenda. Development in reverse The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) has investigated the consequences of internal armed ...

    Peacekeeping Works

    Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 5 February 2015

    An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations. It shows a remarkably strong combined effect of UN operations’ ability to contain the lethality of wars as well as preventing them from reerupting or spreading. Peacekeeping reduces the level of violence in conflict Peacekeeping decreases the duration of conflict Peacekeeping increases the longevity of peace An ...

    Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

    Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

    The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that conflict has been an important impediment to achieving these goals.  The consequences of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield. PRIO has documented substantial negative effects of conflict on most developmental indicators. The indirect effects of conflict may be as great as the direct effects. There is a clear case for ...

    Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

    Posted by Håvard Hegre & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 12 June 2014

    The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of this century. As a consequence, the world should continue to grow ever more peaceful. In a new policy brief – launched at the JPR 50th anniversary celebrations today – and the first one out of the PRIO Conflict Trends project – we offer more in-depth comments on the following points: ...

    Democracy, Democratization, and Political Violence

    Posted by Håvard Hegre on Friday, 16 May 2014

    The process of democratization is often violent in the short run, and democratic governments are more constrained in their use of force against insurgents than non-democratic authorities. But are democracies really more prone to political violence than other political systems? This is the theme of a short article published at the International Relations and Security Network (ISN) at ETH Zürich. This summary article is based on recent quantitative studies of the relationship between democracy, democratization, and political violence. A longer review of this literature was recently published as an open-access article in Journal of Peace Research. In a newly published ...

    Why does Democratization Occur in Waves?

    Posted by Håvard Hegre on Sunday, 12 January 2014

    The ‘Arab Spring’ demonstrated that political transitions tend to occur together in space and time. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‘Waves of democratization’ in his book The Third Wave. The figure above shows that changes to the proportion of the world’s countries that are democracies occurs in spurts. Confirming Huntington’s three waves of democratization, spurts occurred from the  1890s up to 1920, from 1935 to 1945, and from 1975 up to today. There are also reverse waves — from 1920 to 1935 and from 1945 to about 1970. Huntington demonstrated the waves empirically, and provided a number of explanations for why they occur. He did not ...

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