Pavel K. Baev

Research Professor

Pavel K. Baev
Email: pavel@prio.org
Work phone: +4722 54 77 39
Mobile phone: +47 90 65 71 63

Research Interests

Russian military reform; Russia's conflict management in the Caucasus and Central Asia; energy interests in Russia's foreign and security policy; Russia's relations with Europe and NATO.

Background

​​​​​​I publish a blog on Arctic Politics and Russia's Ambitions on Facebook.

Languages spoken:

Russian; English

Working experience:

After graduating from the MGU in September 1979, I found myself 'behind bars', working as a researcher, and then senior researcher, in a 'post-box': a Research Institute of the USSR Ministry of Defence.
It was only in August 1988 that I left it to join a newly-created Institute of Europe in USSR Academy of Sciences, where I worked as a head of section for military-political studies until October 1992.
That month I became a PRIOite. Since then, besides holding the position of senior researcher, I was from July 1995 to December 2001, the Editor of Security Dialogue, PRIO's policy-oriented quarterly journal. In 2000-2004, I was the leader of PRIO Foreign and Security Policies program; in 2002-2005, I was the head of a working group at the Center for the Study of Civil War (CSCW); in 1999-2005, I was a member of PRIO Board. In August 2005, I applied for being evaluated for professorial competence (Forsker 1), and in March 2006, the committee of peers produced a positive conclusion, making me a Research Professor. In May 2011, Strobe Talbott invited me to become a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Brookings Institutions, a privilege I value greatly. Since July 2013, I am also a Senior Associate Fellow at the Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (IFRI), affiliated with the Russia/NIS Centre. 

Education:

It was my luck that got me from a 'regular' Moscow school (no. 648) to the Geographical Department of the Moscow State University (MGU) in September 1974. In June 1979, I graduated with MA in Political Geography (that 'B' in the last exam in 'Scientific Communism' meant no cum laude or 'red diploma'). In September 1983, I was accepted into a doctoral track in the Institute of USA and Canada, USSR Academy of Sciences - and in May 1988, I received my PhD in International Relations.

Research Groups

Full member:
Associated member:

PRIO Departments

Current
Historical

PRIO Projects

Ongoing:
Finished:

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

Publications

​From 2012, PRIO Researchers will register their publications in a national database called CRISTIN.  Go to Pavel Baev's CRISTIN page.

Recent publications

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Politika EC na Yuzhnim Kavkaze v tumane gibridnoi voiny [EU policy in the South Cauvasus in the fog of hybrid war], in Alexander Iskandaryan, ed., Kavkaz-2014 (The Caucasus - 2014, Yearbook). Yerevan: The Caucasus Institute (100–113).
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) In foreign policy pause, Putin tinkers with domestic corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin will find the world according to Trump a tough habitat, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Mistrust sets low ceiling for Russia-China partnership, PONARS Eurasia memo, 447. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia and Central-Eastern Europe: Between confrontation and collusion, Russie.Nei.Visions, 97. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin casts shadow over US presidential campaign, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) As US elections conclude, Putin rediscovers moderation, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam: A real threat?, CGI Analysis.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Will the US and Russia trade blows over Syria?, Newsweek.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Moscow gambles on raising the stakes - in Syria and across the board, Order from Chaos.

All publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) What drives Moscow's military adventurism?, Current History 115(783): 251–260.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) "Hybrid War" Is Bad for Business: Russia Seeks in Vain to Upgrade Its Quasi-Alliance with China, Journal of Defense Studies and Resource Management 4(1): 1–6.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Cohesion and Flexibility of NATO's Response to Russia's Problem, The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs 25(1): 22–31.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's pivot to China goes astray: The impact on the Asia-Pacific security architecture, Contemporary Security Policy 37(1): 89–110.
Baev, Pavel K. & Stein Tønnesson (2015) Can Russia keep its special ties with Vietnam while moving closer and closer to China?, International Area Studies Review 18(3): 312–325.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia as Opportunist or Spoiler in the Middle East?, The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs 50(2): 8–21.
Baev, Pavel K. (2014) Геополитика самоизоляции [The geopolitics of self-isolation], Pro Et Contra 18(3): 73–86.
Baev, Pavel K. (2014) Russia and Turkey find a common course in confronting the specter of revolution, Turkish Policy Quarterly 12(4): 45–53.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia's Arctic Ambitions and Anxieties, Current History (1941) 112(756): 265–270.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia's muddled ambitions, The World Today 69(7): 26–26.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Sovereignty is the key to Russia's Arctic policy, Strategic Analysis 37(4): 489–493.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Траектория военной реформы в России [Trajectory of the military reform in Russia], Pro Et Contra 16(4): 171–184.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) How Afghanistan Was Broken: The Disaster of the Soviet Intervention, International Area Studies Review 15(3): 249–262.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012)From European to Eurasian Energy Security , Journal of Eurasian Studies 3(2): 177–184.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russian Energy as a Challenge and a Bonus for European Security, Studia Diplomatica 64(1): 91–100.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) A Matrix for Post-Soviet "Color Revolutions": Exorcising the Devil from the Details , International Area Studies Review 14(2): 3–22.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russia Abandons the 'Energy Super-Power' Idea but Lacks Energy for 'Modernization' , Strategic Analysis 34(6): 885–896.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Øverland, Indra (2010) The South Stream versus Nabucco Pipeline Race , International Affairs 68(5): 1075–1090.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Re-examining the 'Colour Revolutions': The Turn of the Tide from Belgrade to Ulan Bator, Comparative Social Research 27249–276.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Energy Intrigues on the EU's Southern Flank: Applying Game Theory , Problems of Post-Communism 57(3): 11–22.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) From West to South to North: Russia Engages and Challenges its Neighbours , International Journal 63(2): 291–305.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Virtual Geopolitics in Central Asia: US-Russian Cooperation vs. Conflict of Interest , Security Index 14(1): 29–36.
Baev, Pavel K. (2001) Russia's Policies in the Southern Caucasus and the Caspian Area , European Security 10(2): 95–110.
Baev, Pavel K. (1995) The Region That Is No Longer, Security Dialogue 26(3): 345–346.

Monograph

Baev, Pavel K.;Anker, Morten;Øverland, Indra;Brunstad, Bjørn; & Torjesen, Stina (2010) The Caspian Sea Region Towards 2025. : .

Book Chapter

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) The interplay between the "Hybrid war" narrative and the "Sovereignty-Territory-Resoirces" discourse, in Riccardo Mario Cucciola, ed., The Power State Is Back? the Evolution of Russian Political Thought After 1991. Rome: Reset Doc (98–107).
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Future approaches to the Greater Middle East, in Hiski Haukkala, ed., Russian Futures: Horizon 2025. Paris: EU ISS (LV-LXI).
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Politika EC na Yuzhnim Kavkaze v tumane gibridnoi voiny [EU policy in the South Cauvasus in the fog of hybrid war], in Alexander Iskandaryan, ed., Kavkaz-2014 (The Caucasus - 2014, Yearbook). Yerevan: The Caucasus Institute (100–113).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The Conflict of War and Politics in the Soviet Intervention into Afghanistan, 1979-1989, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building In Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (113–130).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia Gambles on Resource Scarcity: Energy Intrigues in a Time of Political Crisis, in Steven, David ; Emily O'Brien; & Bruce Jones, eds, The New Politics of Strategic Resources: Energy and Food Security Challenges In the 21St Century. Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press (245–260).
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia reinvents itself as a rogue state in the ungovernable multi-polar world, in Lipman, Maria; & Nikolay Petrov, eds, The State of Russia: What Comes Next?. London: Palgrave Macmillan (Pivot) (69–85).
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Diversification, Russian-style: Searching for security of demand and transit, in Jakub Godzimirski, ed., Russian Energy In a Changing World: What Is the Outlook For the Hydrocarbons Superpower. London: Ashgate (111–130).
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Defying that sinking feeling: Russia seeks to uphold its role in the multistructural international system in flux, in Stephen Blank, ed., Perspectives on Russian Foreign Policy. Strategic Studies Institute (US Army War College) (1–24).
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Experimenting with 'reset' in the uncongenial NATO-Russia relations The Transatlantic Partnership and Relations With Russia . Atlantic Council(78–84).
Baev, Pavel K.(2012) Reformatting the EU-Russia Pseudo-Partnership Responding to a Resurgent Russia. : Springer(85–100).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) The Uncertain Trajectory of Russia-Azerbaijan Relations in the Multiple-pipeline Era Russian Energy Security and Foreign Policy. : Routledge(132–144).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) The Russian Army as a Crumbling Keystone in the European Security Architecture The Russian Armed Forces In Transition. : Routledge(200–225).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) The Continuing Revolution in Russian Military Affairs Russia In 2020: Scenarios For the Future. : Carnegie Endowment For International Peace(349–370).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) Russia's Security Relations with the US: Futures Planned and Unplanned Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future. : Strategic Studies Institute(161–186).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) Russia: Moscow Does Not Believe in Changes The Arab Awakening: America and the Transformation of the Middle East. : Brookings Institution(291–297).
Baev, Pavel K.(2011) Crooked Hierarchy and Reshuffled Networks: Reforming Russia's Dysfunctional Military Machine Russia As a Network State: What Works In Russia When State Institutions Do Not?. : Palgrave Macmillan(62–80).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) The Russian Federation: Striving for Multipolarity but Missing the Consequences Great Powers and Strategic Stability In the 21 Century. : (117–136).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) The Russian Military Campaign in the North Caucasus: Is Victory in Sight? Volatile Borderland: Russia and the North Caucasus. : (92–106).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) The Targets of Terrorism and the Aims of Counter-terrorism in Moscow, Chechnya, and the North Caucasus Volatile Borderlands: Russia and the North Caucasus. : (107–127).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Russia and the EU Eastern Partnership: Cannot Stop It but Loathe to Join It Forging a New European Ostpolitik. : (67–82).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Military Reform Against Heavy Odds Russia After the Economic Crisis. : (169–186).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Russia in the Caucasus: Exploiting the Victory for Building a Position of Strength Russia on Our Minds: Russian Security Policy and Northern Europe. : (157–176).
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Neither Reform nor Modernization: The Armed Forces under and after Putin's Command The Politics of Security In Modern Russia. : (69–88).
Baev, Pavel K.(2009) Troublemaking and Risk-taking: The North in Russian Military Activities Russia and the North. : (17–34).
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russian Perceptions of Bases and Assessments of Military Balance in the Black Sea Area, in Military Bases: Historical Perspectives, Contemporary Challenges. (173–180).
Baev, Pavel K.(2008) Leading in the Concert of Great Powers: Lessons from Russia's G8 Chairmanship The Multilateral Dimension In Russian Foreign Policy. : (58–68).
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Asia-Pacific and LNG: The Lure of New Markets, in Pipeline, Politics and Power: the Future of EU-Russia Energy Relations. .
Baev, Pavel K.(2008) Rising Powers: Russian Foreign and Security Policy : .
Baev, Pavel K.(2008) Rising Powers: Russian Foreign and Security Policy : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Sad Wisdom of Hindsight: Soviet Intervention in Afghanistan (1979-1989), in Afghanistan: State and Society, Great Power Politics and the Way Ahead. (37–46).
Baev, Pavel K.(2008) Russian super-giant in its lair: Gazprom's role in domestic affairs Europe's Energy Security: Gazprom's Dominance and Caspian. : (59–70).
Baev, Pavel K. (2003) Reforming the Russian Military: History and Trajectory, in Russian Military Reform and Russia's New Security Environment. Stockholm: Test (37–54).

Edited Volume

Tunander, Ola; Pavel K. Baev; & Victoria Ingrid Einagel, eds, (1997) Geopolitics in Post-Wall Europe. Security, Territory and Identity. London.

Non-refereed Journal Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Will the US and Russia trade blows over Syria?, Newsweek.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's perilous glorification of militarism: 1–2.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Нефтегазовые проблемы во внешней политике России [Oil and gas problems in Russia's foreign policy], ECO 43(4): 78–93.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012)Geopolitique de l'Islam dans le Caucase du Nord [Geopolitics of Islam in the North Caucasus] , Diplomatie 11(6): 26–28.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Russia's Counter-revolutionary Stance Toward the Arab Spring , Insight Turkey 13(3): 11–19.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Global Insider: Russia-Norway Relations, World Politics Review.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Армия: Проблемы - Что делать? [The Army: Problems and Actions] , Forbes (Russian Edition) 82(1): 116–117.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Abjasia es un projecto de Estado en ciernes, pero no en titere de nadie [Abkhazia is a Fledling State Project - but Nobody's Puppet] , Vanguardia Dossier (30): 60–66.
Baev, Pavel K. (2006) Putin Tries to Pull Azerbaijan into Sphere of Influence , CACI Analyst .

Popular Article

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) In foreign policy pause, Putin tinkers with domestic corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin will find the world according to Trump a tough habitat, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) As US elections conclude, Putin rediscovers moderation, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin casts shadow over US presidential campaign, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam: A real threat?, CGI Analysis.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Moscow gambles on raising the stakes - in Syria and across the board, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Younger crowd will not rejuvenate Putin's court, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian elections overshadowed by rampant corruption, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Latest Kerry-Lavrov deal on Syria destined to unravel, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) A String of Intrigues on Putin's Eastern Tour, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia underperforms at pivoting , Policy Forum.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian economy deteriorates as Putin focuses on squabbles among siloviki, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Dialogue with Russia produces universal frustration, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia's Pivot to China Is Reduced to High-Level Bonhomie, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Moscow promises responses to US and NATO activities, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin commits to countering new strategic "theat" to Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Virtual Militarism Grows Into Real Peril for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia Seeks to Reenergize Its Pivot to the East, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia’s Aggressive-Repressive Policies Bring No Long-Term Gains, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) The precarious China-Russia partnership erodes security in East Asia, Contemporary Security Policy Blog.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Newly-formed National Guard cannot dispel Putin's multiple insecurities , Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Nuclear security and arms control are non-issues for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) US diplomacy feeds Putin's sense of self-righteousness, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Putin's not-quite-withdrawal signifies a strategic retreat, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. & Sergei Aleksashenko (2016) Did Putin win in Syria? Or is he cutting his losses?, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) A lost year for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) For Moscow, talks are about sowing discord, not solving conflicts., Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) With Russia overextended elsewhere, Arctic cooperation gets a new chance, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia bargains and bluffs for a breakthrough in Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Иллюзия эффективности: Куда летят поссийские ВВС? [Illusion of effectiveness: Where the Russian Air Force is going?], RBC.Ru.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia’s Economic Degradation as Putin’s New Norm, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Unfriended: How Russia's Syria quagmire is costing it Middle Eastern allies, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline With Military Bravado, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin cannot swallow the Turkish insult – and cannot retaliate, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's Russia seeks place in the international anti-terrorism coalition, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) What is Russian military good for?, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's desperation deepens as his blunders accumulate, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's Syrian intrigue has yielded zero divedends, European Leadership Network.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Will Russian military intervention in Syria continue after today?, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) How Russia and America make the same mistakes in Syria, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia's Arctic illusions, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia's reputation sinks precipitously in international opinion polls, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) How long can Putin continue doing nothing?, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The China factor in Russian support for the Iran deal, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The air tragedy that condemned Putin's Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Greek agreement and Iranian deal leave Russia disappointed and irrelevant, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Greece's Russian fantasy; Russia's Greek delusion, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia is not strong, and Putin is even weaker, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Weakening Russia Curtails Population’s Access to Publicly Available Information, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The Kremlin grows nervous about the future, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Dubious otcome of Kerry's meeting with Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Dubious Outcomes of Kerry’s Meeting With Putin in Sochi, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) After the swaggering celebration, a "Now what?" moment for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's political pause amid national mobilization, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Gazprom must compromise on EU charges, but Putin cannot, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia needs a Middle east crisis, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) The faltering Russian economy makes a renewed Ukraine offensive more likely, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Iranian deal leaves Russia in deeper isolation, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Apocalypse a bit later: The meaning of Putin's nuclear threats, Order from Chaos.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's conveniently imperfect memory, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Two summits and a military exercise, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Putin's disappearing act may be a sign of leadership crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Free rein of special services makes Russia ungovernable, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Murder that revealed truth, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) After Debaltseve - Is there a chance for ceasefire?, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Diplomacy delivers another pause for struggling Ukraine and sinking Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia makes haste in severing ties with Europe, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Amid mounting domestic troubles, Putin tries to regain initiative in Eastern Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Futile Hope for the Dubious Summit in Astana, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia enters new year mired in troubles, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2014) Assaulting Ukraine, Putin dares the West to respond, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2014) West pushes and eases Putin toward a "diplomatic solution" in Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Северный фронт: Арктика [The Northern Front: The Arctic], The New Times.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Maidan stands against Putin's plan to buy Ukraine on the cheap, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Ukrainian Triumph Is a Major Setback for Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Iran’s New Flexibility Exposes Russia’s Arrogance and Irrelevance, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Lawlessness as the Central Pillar of Putin’s Authority, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Moscow Becomes an Intersection for Two Waves of Anti-Regime Protests, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Valdai Vision and Sochi Olympics Preparations Underscore Failure, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin in Denial About Economic Stagnation, and in a Rage About Arctic Sovereignty, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin in denial of economic stagnation, and in rage about Arctic sovereignty, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 October 2013.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin’s Machine of Repression Destroying the Legitimacy of His Regime, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Tries to Build on the Success of His Syrian Coup, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Neither the G20 Summit, Nor the Moscow Elections Went According to Putin’s Script, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Policy of Procrastination Expires at the Junction of Russia’s Crises, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin's blurred Arctic vision, Moscow Times.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Problem-Rich Context for the Obama-Putin Non-Summit, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Xenophobia Becomes a Thorn for Putin’s Bubble, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Local Politics in Moscow Goes Global, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Navalny Becomes Only Real Thing in Fake Russian Politics, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Disappearing Sense of Talking to Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Issue of Neutrality in Putin’s Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russian Economy Stagnates and Simulates Success on the Wane of Putin’s Watch, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Stalin’s Shadow over the Post-Reset Meeting Between Putin and Obama, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Turkish Turmoil Adds Unpredictability to Putin’s Creeping Coup, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia’s Predicament and the Plight of One Economist, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Spy Story: An Episode in Russia’s Confusion, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) What Surkov’s Ousting Signifies About Russia’s Course in Syria, What Surkov’S Ousting Signifies About Russia’S Course In Syria.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Kerry Succeeds in Faking Respect for Putin, but Fails in Building Trust with Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Radicalization and Simulation Intertwine in Putin’s Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Adopts Stalin’s Style, but Remains a Late Oligarch’s Legacy, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) The Cyprus Test for Russian Foreign and Economic Policies, Eurasia Daily Monitor.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia’s History Is Too Tragic and Its Society Too Complex to Fit into Putin’s Worldview, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Chagrin and Ambivalence in Putin’s Foreign Policy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Putin Looks for an Escape from the Dead End of His Presidency, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Capital Flight from Russia Tells a Tale About Regime Failure, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Disarray Among Putin's Elites Deepens as Russia's Self-Isolation Progresses, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Militarism is a poor fit for Putin's 'patriotic' kleptocracy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia takes pause after incredible year of discoveries and disappointments, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Putin attempts a comeback as his leadership becomes precarious, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Andropov's shadow over the Kremlin clan feuds, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Indecision time for Putin as Russia drifts toward stagnant authoritarianism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Dirty elections grant Putin disappearing power, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) The Anti-Putin Momentum from Davos to Courchevel to the Bolotnaya square, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) The political economy of the Russian revolution in the making, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Putin Tries to Regain Initiative while Remaining Out of Touch, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russian literature and blogosphere join forces against Putinism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russia has reluctantly entered into a new revolution, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Street Politics Makes a Comeback in Moscow, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) After Elections, Questions about Putin's Intentions Loom, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Putin is Ready for Problems with the United States, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Russia Sidelined on Eurocrisis, Asia Times, 9 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Russia Ponders the Eurozone Calamity, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Farcical Elections and Court Scandals Replace Politics in Stagnating Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 31 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Lybian Lessons for Putin's Russia, Eurasian Daily Monitor, 24 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Putin Sends the 'What Reset?' Message to the West, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Economic Stagnation in Russia becomes Personal for Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Tries to Prove his Relevance in the Putin-centric State, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Moscow Dithers Over a New Scandal and Forgets the Old Tragedy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Edges to the End of his Presidency with a Whimper, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Old Political Farce for New Russia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Putin Ignores Gathering Economic Storm, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Reflects on the Georgia War and on Himself, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) The Prospect of Putin's Return Comes into Focus, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) What has Happened to the Russian Elections?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Fails in Mediating a Compromise between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Speaks Against Putinism and Fails to Disprove Khodorkovsky, Eurasia Daily Monitor, .
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Western Engagement Strategies Encourage Russia Not to Change, Eurasia Daily Monitor, .
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Sovetskii OPK umiraet no ne zdaetsya [Soviet MIC Dies but Surrenders Not], The New Times, June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev's Commitment to Partnership with the West Wears Thin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Moscow Strenghtenes its Stance against the Arab Revolutions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Putin Reduces Modernization to 'Steady Uninterrupted Development', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 25 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Competition between Medvedev and Putin: Light Entertainment, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Stalin's Shadow Hangs over Medvedev's Modernization, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Tries to Rescue his Presidency, Eurasia Dialy Monitor, 4 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Putin's Energy Games Turn Increasingly Erratic, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) US-Russian Economic 'Reset' is Not Happening, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Kudrin Promises the Return of Putin the Reformer, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Moscow Learns to Play by the Asia-Pacific Rules, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) The Maidan at the Tahrir Square is Bad News for Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Russian Politics Turns Towards Putin's New Presidency, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 31 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Medvedev Attempts to Rally Support in Davos for Russian 'Modernization', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Corruption Rules in Russia Despite Medvedev's Exorcism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Russia Enters Year of Elections in the Shadow of Shameful Verdict, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Enjoys Foreign Policy Successes, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Флешка для аятолл [Memory Stick for Ayatollahs], The New Time, 6 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russia Tries to Exploit European Disunity, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) И это вам НАТО? [And this is NATO for you?], The New Times, 15 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Adrift in the Sea of Economic Multi-polarity, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Attempted Patriotic Boost in Russia Falls Flat, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Court Cases Loom Large over Medvedev's Presidency, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Merkel and Sarkozy Talk Shop with Medvedev, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Moscow Awaits Medvedev's Choice, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev and Putin Travel Separate Economic Roads to Nowhere, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russian Foreign Policy Takes a Sensible Course on Iran and in the Arctic, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Political Battle in Moscow Escalates to Self-destructive Confrontation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Re-energizes Russian Capian Policy in Baku, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) The Second Anniversary of Russian 'Victory' is Barely Noticed, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Hot Summer in Moscow Emerges as a Political Problem, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) "Рысь" готовится к прыжку ['Lynx' is bracing for a jump], The New Times (Moscow), 5 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Attempts to Rationalize his 'Modernization' Agenda, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Putin Grows Confident on the Comeback Trail, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev's Visit Shows Slackening of Russian-German Special Relations, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) The Iranian Trap for Medvedev's Opportunistic Foreign Policy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev's Ineffectual Foreign Policy Lacks Putin's Firm Hand, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Presides Over the Victory Day Celebrations and Condemns Stalin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) The Polish Revelation for Russia - and the Latin American Dream, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russian Economy Failing to Modernize, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev Struggles to Demonstrate Leadership in Combatting Terrorism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev's Modernization Hits the Corruption Wall, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 15 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Medvedev in Paris, SNOB, 1 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Could a Trip to Paris Re-energize Medvedev's 'Modernization'?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russia Finds Itself Passed its Security Prime, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russia Reflects on the Presidential Elections in Ukraine, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 18 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russia: Stuck in the Year of Events and Little Change, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) China Trumps Gazprom, Moscow Times, 17 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russia and NATO Explore the Limits of the 'Agreeing to Disagree' Posture, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Putin Reassures his Audience and Reduces Medvedev to Irrelevance, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Strategic Countdown and Russia's Escalating Instability, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 30 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Smiles to Europe, while Putin Stamps his Authority, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev's Quasi-modernization Hits the Wall, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Iranian 'Litmus Test' for Medvedev's Problem-free Foreign Policy , Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev and Putin Work on Repairing their Dysfunctional Leadership, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Pulls Germany into a Closer Partnership, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Ten Years at the Helm: Putin Holds a Photo-session and Visits Turkey, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Putin Opts for a Large Deficit and Low Investment 2010 Budget, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Tries to Dress Foreign Policy Setbacks as Achievements, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Promotes Intellectual Economy and Putin Resorts to Soviet Methods, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Lukashenka Plays Hard Ball with the Russian Leadership, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 1 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev's Presidency After the 'Second Parade', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Moscow Playing Hard-ball in Quasi-partnership with NATO, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev's Macro-European Ambitions Ring Hollow, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Experiments with Liberalism as Economy Plunges, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Gazprom Turns the Crisis into an Opportunity - And a New Crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev Fingers the 'Reset Button' but Preached Anti-Americanism, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Medvedev's First Year Ends with Denial of the Need for Change, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Economic Catastrophe Propels Russia into Identity Crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russian Economy Slows Down but Protest Activity Remains Feeble, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 23 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Faced with a Crippled Economy, Putin Strikes a Conciliatory Tone at Davos, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russia's Sinking Economy and Wandering Politics, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 26 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Fare for militærcoup? [On the Way to a Military Coup?], Aftenposten, 24 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Putin feilhåndterer nok en gasskonflikt [Putin Mishandles Another Gas Conflict], Stavanger Aftenblad , 23 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Gazprom's War has Damaged Russian Interests, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Gazprom the Great, Moscow Times, 16 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) A War Like No Other: Putin Mishandles Another Gas Conflict, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Russia's Slow Start into a Post-prosperity Year, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 5 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russian Anti-crisis Policy is Adrift without Direction, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev's Speech Marked by Anti-Americanism and Comfort for Bureaucracy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Qaddafi and Zyazikov: Reality Checks for Russian Petro-politics, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 November.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev's Address is Returned for Revisions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 27 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia Counts its Blessings in the Global Financial Crisis, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia and Germany Restart their Special Partnership, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 October.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia Assembles its Allies and Ponders the Content of its 'Privileged Interests', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 9 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) The Post-war Trajectory of Russia-EU Non-partnership, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 September.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia values oil more than war, Moscow Times, 22 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russian 'tandemocracy' stumbles into a war, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Duumvirate is tested as Medvedev speaks against Putin, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 August.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Economic fundamentals are worrisome for the Medvedev-Putin 'Tandemocracy', Eurasia Daily Monitor, 29 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev's foreign policy takes indefinite shape, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev presents a grand design for foreign policy, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 17 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev's business-tour yields more promises than fruit, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 7 July.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) A trap for Medvedev in the TNK-BP conflict, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia Insists on Treating Sevastopol as an Open Question, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 16 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev tries to gain trust in Europe and respect in the CIS, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 10 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) The Putin-Medvedev duo gets back to energy business, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 3 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Putin enjoys his moveable feast with no worry about Georgia, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2 June.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) The North Caucasus is the Key Security Challenge for President Medvedev, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 19 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Will President Medvedev's First Crisis be Georgia?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 May.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) How much Europe will matter for Medvedev?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 6 May 2008.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Putin packs his bags but Medvedev still bides his time, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 28 April 2008.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Moscow has little success expanding its role in the Middle East, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 21 April.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) It Takes Two Russian Presidents to Tango with the US, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 24 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Putin Warns Against "Immoral" Western Interference in his "Strategic" Speech, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 11 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Presidential transplantation in Russia enters final phase, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 4 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Putin and Medvedev open the Bulgarian gate for Gazprom, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 22 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Will Medvedev's ascention solve Gazprom's problems?, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 14 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Moscow raises stakes in the Iran game, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8 January.
Baev, Pavel K. (2007) Big Business is Invited to the Kremlin for Fresh Instructions, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 12 February.
Baev, Pavel K. (2006) Quarrels in the Government Fuelled by Inflation and Intrigue, Eurasia Daily Monitor, 20 March.
Baev, Pavel K. (2000) President Putin, Tsjetsjenia og atomvåpene [President Putin, Chechnya and Atomic Weapons], Tidens Tegn, December.
Baev, Pavel K. (2000) Putin's Honeymoon Coming to the End, Johnson's Russia List, 17 February.

Conference Paper

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Military Force: A Driver Aggravating Russia's Decline, presented at Russia in Decline, Washington DC, London, 27 June 2016.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russian intervention in Syria, presented at Ninth Annual Terrorism Conference, the Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC, 08/12/2015.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia: Emerging Power Perspective, presented at Conference at New Your University, Abu Dabi, 17.11.13 – 18.11.13.
Baev, Pavel K. 2011 Russia's High Ambitions and Ambivalent Activities in the Arctic, presented at Carnegie Council Program on US Global Engagement, , 7 September.
Baev, Pavel K. 2009 Not in the Same Boat: Engaging Russia that is Both Resurgent and Retrograde, presented at Europe's Near Abroad, organized by the EU Center of Excellence, Washingtoin University, , 22 May.
Baev, Pavel K. 2009 Russian Arctic Policy - Crisis Test on Realism, presented at Arctic seminar at the Moscow Carnegie Center, , 14 May.
Baev, Pavel K. 2009 Reformatting the Russia-EU Pseudo-partnership, presented at Responding to a Resurgent Russia, , 2 April.
Baev, Pavel K. 2008 East-West Maneuvring in Russia's Energy Policy, presented at Nordic-China Peace Conference, , 8 April.
Baev, Pavel K. 2008 Prospects for US-Russian Cooperation in Central Asia, presented at UA and Russia: Post-elections Security Challenges, , 6 March.
Baev, Pavel K. 2007 Russian Perceptions of Bases and Assessments of Military Balance in the Black Sea Area, presented at Political and Social Impact of Military Bases, , 14 December.

PRIO Policy Brief

Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Partnership of Contrarians, PRIO Policy Brief, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia and Turkey in conflict (mis)management in the Caucasus, PRIO Policy Brief, 6. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - External Series

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Russia and Central-Eastern Europe: Between confrontation and collusion, Russie.Nei.Visions, 97. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Mistrust sets low ceiling for Russia-China partnership, PONARS Eurasia memo, 447. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K.; & Juha Jokela (2015) Arctic Security Matters - Russia's Arctic Aspirations, EUISS Reports, 24. Paris: EUISS.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Ukraine: A test for Russian military reform, Russie.Nei.Report, 19. Paris: IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russian air power is too brittle for brinksmanship, PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, 398. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Russia’s policy in the Middle East imperilled by the Syrian intervention, NOREF Policy Brief. Oslo: NOREF.
Baev, Pavel K. (2015) Could Russia become a serious spoiler in the Middle East?, PONARS Eurasia: Policy Memo, 359. Washington DC: George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2014) Upgradina Russia's quasi-strategic pseudo-partnership with China, PONARS Eurasia , 337. Washington DC: George Washington University, Elliot School of International Affairs.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Not everything is wrong with Russia's Syria strategy, PONARS Eurasia, 248. Washington DC: Geroge Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia assumes and exploits the chairmanship of the G20, NOREF Policy Brief. Oslo: NOREF.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Russia attempts to gain a status boost from the G20 chairmanship, NOREF report. Oslo: NOREF.
Baev, Pavel K. (2012) Russia's Arctic Policy and the Northern Fleet Modernization , Russie.Nei.Visions , 65. IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) The Latent Resonance of the Arab Revolutions in the North Caucasus, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 177. : George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) The Caucasus: A Hotbed of Terrorism in Metamorphosis, 0, 60. : IFRI.
Baev, Pavel K. (2011) Has Moscow Come to Terms with Iran?, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 141. : Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University.
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russia's Arctic Policy: Geopolitics, Mercantilism and Identity-Building, FIIA Briefing Paper, 73. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) The Terrorism-corruption Nexus in the North Caucasus, PONARS Eurasia memo, 114. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) What's in Store for Color Revolutions? Managing a New Rise of Discontent in a Time of Crisis, PONARS Eurasia Memo , 101. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2010) Russian Military Perestroika, US-Europe Analysis, 45. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Staying the Arctic Course: An Offer for Cooperation that Russia Cannot Refuse, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 58. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2009) Competing Designs for Caspian Energy Highways: Russia and the EU Face Reality Checks, PONARS Eurasia memo, 55. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Vae Victors: The Russian Army Pays for the Lessons of the Georgian War, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 46. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Medvedev and the Military: Reshuffling as a Preamble for Reform?, PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos, 22. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia Makes a Move in the Caucasus - and Looks Beyond, The EU-Russia Centre Review, 8. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) The Kosovo Precedent in Russia's Georgia Policy, PONARS Eurasia Memo, 5. : .
Baev, Pavel K. (2008) Russia's Security Policy Grows 'Muscular': Should the West Be Worried?, UPI Briefing Paper, 15. : .

Book Review

Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Richard Shirreff, ed., 2017 War with Russia, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of David Shambaugh, ed., China's Future, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Robert Legvold, ed., Return to Cold War, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2016) Review of Robert Blackwill, ed., War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft, in JPR .
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Review of Hill, Fiona; & Clifford G Gaddy, eds, Portrait of an accidental autocrat, in International Spectator 48(3): .
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Review of Internal Colonization: Russia's Imperial Experience, in Journal of Peace Research 50(3): 427–427.
Baev, Pavel K. (2013) Review of Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin, in Journal of Peace Research 50(3): 427–428.
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Review of Russia Against Napoleon: The True Story of the Campaigns of War and Peace 692–693.
Baev, Pavel K.(2010) Review of The Guns of August 2008: Russia's War Against Georgia 1043–1044.

Blog Posts

Latest Kerry-Lavrov Deal on Syria Destined to Unravel

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 September 2016

The agreement on managing the Syrian civil war, reached between the United States and Russia in Geneva in the early hours of Saturday, September 10, was both surprising and pre-determined. US Secretary of State John Kerry had invested so much effort in the endless rounds of marathon talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that the absence of a deal would have amounted to a personal failure. US President Barack Obama, who met with Russian President Vladimir Putin a week ago in Hangzhou, China, for the G20 summit (September 4–5), was far from enthusiastic about the prospects for such a ...

Russia Underperforms at Pivoting

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 2 September 2016

Vladivostok, which had an expensive facelift for the 2012 APEC summit, will this week host the Eastern Economic Forum, and President Vladimir Putin is due to preside over the proceedings. His goal is to reassert Russia’s commitment to playing a major role in Asia-Pacific geopolitics and to reinvigorate business ties with this dynamic region. The provisional results of Russia’s “pivot” to the East, launched two and a half years ago against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, are nevertheless quite disappointing. Not only has the volume of trade shrunk by about a third in this time, but Moscow’s ability to ...

Putin's Trip to Beijing Yields few Fruits, if any

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 30 June 2016

Expectations regarding President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing on Saturday (June 25) had been rather subdued, and the modest results were mostly immaterial. Last year, the two leaders grandiosely celebrated their countries’ World War II victory over the Axis powers; and in 2014, they announced a great increase in economic ties and an allegedly historic natural gas deal (see EDM, May 22, 2014). But the implementation of this deal has been delayed, and the volume of bilateral trade—instead of the promised fast expansion—has contracted by about 30 percent. Thus, Putin’s argument that the Russia-China relationship should be redefined from a ...

Russia is showing uncharacteristic prudence - Why, and will it last?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 6 June 2016

With the NATO summit in Warsaw coming up in July, the rhetoric in many Western quarters is becoming shriller about the need to contain Russian aggression. There are good reasons for concern about Russia’s intentions and capabilities, as elaborated at the recent Lennart Meri conference in Tallinn. But in the last couple of months, Moscow has actually been quite prudent. This self-restraint is entirely uncharacteristic and is often accompanied by typically assertive language, but it shouldn’t be ignored and deserves a closer look. What self-restraint? There is no denying Russia’s propensity to—and even preference for—using military force. However, this tendency hasn’t ...

The Precarious China-Russia Partnership Erodes Security in East Asia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 22 April 2016

With the explosion of the Ukraine crisis in spring 2014, Russia made a determined effort to upgrade its strategic partnership with China and achieved instant success. Large-scale economic contracts were signed in a matter of a few months, and the military parades in Moscow and Beijing in respectively May and September 2015, in which the two leaders stood shoulder to shoulder, were supposed to show the readiness of two world powers to combine their military might. In fact, however, the partnership has encountered serious setbacks and as of spring 2016, is significantly off-track. It is the economic content of bi-lateral ...

Ceasefire as a Fig Leaf for Carnage and Confusion

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 25 February 2016

Just a couple of weeks ago, Aleppo was seen as a crucial battlefield in the Syrian civil war and was compared with Sarajevo as a tragedy of intolerable proportions not only by hard-hitting journalists but also by such responsible politicians as Michael Fallon, UK Defence Secretary. Yet presently, this devastated city is portrayed as the main beneficiary of the ceasefire deal negotiated by US State Secretary John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and announced with due solemnity by President Vladimir Putin. The proposals for enforcing a no-fly zone and for punishing Russia with more sanctions appear to be ...

Unfriended: How Russia's Syria Quagmire is Costing it Middle Eastern Allies

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 8 January 2016

At a time when most Russians were taking a long break from politics until after the Orthodox Christmas on January 7, there has been no respite in Russia’s air operations in Syria, nor in the quarrel with Turkey. Rather than focus on the bread-and-butter issues of making ends meet, Russian policymakers seem to be instead preparing their next round of conflict escalation in an attempt to energize the populace around a new rallying cry. The Kremlin cannot afford a sobering up that awakens the public to the stress of falling incomes and shameless corruption. So, it is working to supply ...

Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline with Military Bravado

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 January 2016

President Vladimir Putin concluded 2015 with the approval of a revised National Security Strategy, which defines the strengthening of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as a threat and commits to countering it by securing the unity of Russian society and by building up the country’s defense capabilities. In the course of the past year, Russia entered into a complex and self-propelling crisis—and the Kremlin’s only anti-crisis response has been to exploit the confrontation with the West as a means of sustaining “patriotic” mobilization and explaining away Russia’s deepening decline by pointing to hostile outside pressure. The new Strategy is ...

Russia Breaks the Partnership with Turkey – but Builds a New One with Iran

Posted by Pavel Baev & Joakim Brattvoll on Thursday, 26 November 2015

De-escalation of the crisis between Russia and Turkey, caused by the first ever air fight between them resulting in a destruction of a Russian Su-24, has suddenly become the hottest issue in global affairs. What has been overshadowed by this clash of military missions and political ambitions is the strengthening of ties between Russia and Iran achieved in the course of President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran on 23 November 2015. This partnership-building may be of importance for the Syrian war, for the wider Middle East and beyond. All war trails lead to Damascus Since the start of Russian military ...

What is the Russian Military good for?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 5 November 2015

The Russian military intervention in Syria—launched in a great rush just over a month ago — came as a surprise; perhaps not as shocking as the swift occupation and annexation of Crimea, but a surprise nevertheless. But does Russia’s ability to surprise and to project force in Syria prove, as Garret Campbell claims, that Western attempts “to discredit Russian military capabilities” were inaccurate? In fact, the first month of the operation tells us little about Russian military capabilities. It does show that the Russian leadership is prepared to play with military instruments of policy way beyond the limit of, for ...

Russia's Syrian Entanglement: Can the West Sit Back and Watch?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Saturday, 10 October 2015

For observers who are confined by the boundaries of conventional strategic sense, every day of Russia’s military intervention in Syria brings fresh surprises. Indiscriminate strikes against Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups (which could not possibly be mistaken for ISIS) were followed by deliberate violations of Turkey’s airspace, and then by the spectacular cruise missile salvo from warships in the Caspian Sea. More astonishing turns are almost certain to come, prompting more reevaluation of the power projection capabilities that Russia brings to bear in this high-risk enterprise. Good morning, Latakia The intervention, which President Vladimir Putin preferred not to announce in ...

Putin's Syrian intrigue has yielded zero dividends

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 1 October 2015

Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war appeared to gain momentum every day over the past month, up until President Vladimir Putin’s address to the UN General Assembly on September 28th. The intention behind moving troops and equipment to Syria, while denying these deployments, was quite possibly to build momentum for Putin’s initiative. The content of this initiative has been clear since early August, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed building a broad international coalition against the so-called “Islamic State” (or ISIS). Yet, the proposal fell flat. It looked fairly agreeable until the point that this coalition should include forces ...

How Russia and America make the same mistakes in Syria

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 21 September 2015

Russia’s apparent escalation in Syria is less dramatic than it seems, but it still represents another depressing development in the ongoing nightmare of the Syrian civil war. While it appears no Russian troops are engaged in fighting, the volume of military cargo delivered from Russia to Syria by sea and air has significantly increased in the last couple of weeks. President Putin did assert that it was “premature” to talk about direct Russian participation in the yet-to-be-built coalition against the various terrorist groups in the country. And even though Putin says it, it might still be true. Clearly, putting scarce Russians ...

Putin's Pivot to Asia: Profit-Free, but Problem-Rich

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 September 2015

The bilateral meeting in Beijing will be demonstratively cordial but loaded with mutual disappointment. Putin cannot fail to see that his hopes for harvesting rich dividends from closer Russian ties with China have failed to materialize and delivered him to a position of one-sided dependency. Xi, meanwhile, has few doubts about the trajectory of Russia’s crisis and probably understands that Putin’s mismanagement brings risks of a catastrophically hard landing. While Russia’s aggressive assault on the European security system is not helpful for China’s plans regarding the evolutionary transformation of the global order. Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to address ...

Russia’s Reputation Sinks Precipitously in International Opinion Polls

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 11 August 2015

Seven years ago, Russia launched its week-long war with Georgia. And what seemed then a victory can now be recognized as one of the worst August disasters in Russian history. On the one hand, it is true that the war generated a moment of national unity, which was deeply false but politically very useful. It also produced a conviction that the West was weak and divided, while the reproach in public opinion did not matter. Almost a year and a half ago, Putin sought to reproduce that moment of “patriotic” unity with the annexation of Crimea, but that spectacular triumph ...

Russia Insists on own Impunity, Gains Pariah Status

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 4 August 2015

Exactly 40 years ago, the Soviet Union signed the Helsinki Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), accepting commitments to respect the norms of international behavior and to observe the standards of human rights. The Kremlin had, in fact, no intention to relax domestic pressure on dissidents (who formed the legendary Helsinki group) but saw the document as a matter of pivotal importance to establish the inviolability of European borders. Today, Putin’s Russia is recycling some of the most notorious Soviet methods of suppressing the human rights movement—but at the same time, Moscow also rejects ...

How Long can Putin Continue doing Nothing?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 28 July 2015

Putin has always preferred to postpone decisions until the last possible moment and to keep his lieutenants and international counterparts in the dark about his intentions. This summer, however, he is arguably wasting time and maneuvering himself into a corner, from which the only escape will be jumping into another spasm of hostilities in eastern Ukraine with the hope that a victory can cancel all other problems. The risks are frighteningly high, and Putin has avoided them for yet another week. But now August is approaching—a month that has traditionally brought Russia multiple disasters. For the whole article, see Eurasia ...

The China Factor in Russian Support for the Iran Deal

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 22 July 2015

The United States needed Russian support to conclude the Iranian nuclear deal. As U.S. President Barack Obama acknowledged, “we would have not achieved this agreement had it not been for Russia’s willingness to stick with us.” But with U.S.-Russian relations at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, Russian support came as somewhat of a surprise, even to Obama. So, why was Russia willing to support an Iran deal that even the normally anti-American Russian media describes as Obama’s personal achievement? As usual, the answer is far from simple and resides ultimately in the fevered mind of ...

The Air Tragedy that Condemns Putin's Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 July 2015

It was a year ago last Friday (July 17) that the Boeing 777 Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down by a missile over eastern Ukraine, resulting in a loss of 298 lives. The shock of that tragedy awakened Europe and the wider global community to the grave risk that the localized armed conflict in Donbas posed to international security. Russia strenuously denied responsibility, despite its direct involvement in sparking the very war that turned the sky over Ukraine into a battle-zone, and despite supplying the separatists with the surface-to-air missiles that inflicted heavy ...

Putin Flexes Diplomatic Muscles on Iran

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 17 July 2015

“Russia has been rather ambivalent about striking the deal, not because it is worried about the Iranian nuclear program, but because it is worried about the Iranian oil,” said Pavel K. Baev, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo. Mr. Baev noted that at several crucial points in the long negotiations, Russia had seemed to be working to complicate things. In November, for example, it announced a new deal to build nuclear reactors in Iran, and in April said it was resuming the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles that Iran had ordered before a 2010 arms embargo was ...

Greek Agreement and Iranian Deal leave Russia Disappointed and Irrelevant

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 15 July 2015

It was a rare coincidence in world politics that two pivotal and protracted negotiation processes—the European Union’s talks with Greece on managing its debt, and the “P5+1” talks on managing the Iranian nuclear program—both culminated in crucial agreements at the start of this week (July 13–14). Russia was a party (albeit not a very active one by the end) to the bargaining with Iran, but not with Greece (while demonstrating close engagement); and it has large stakes in both crises. Typically, while declaring support for reaching comprehensive agreements in both cases, Moscow was, in fact, more interested in the talks ...

Greece’s Russian Fantasy; Russia’s European Delusion

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 10 July 2015

The striking outcome of this Sunday’s Greek referendum is that the collective attitude departed so decisively from common sense. The question on the ballot was convoluted, but the voters were well-informed about the EU’s demands. Having spent a week lining up at ATMs, Greeks grasped the reality of the coming bankruptcy—and yet, they chose to reject the clear demands of their creditors. One important part of the explanation for an apparently self-punishing choice is Russia. Many Greeks see Russia as a state that upholds its sovereignty and defies the EU diktat. This rosy view—centered on the idea of dignity—conveniently overlooks ...

Celebrating Russia Day, the country finds itself with no future

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 June 2015

The pattern of brinksmanship, in which air incidents in the Baltic theater interplay with tank and artillery engagements in the Donbas war zone, is so obviously detrimental to Russia’s interests that a determined effort at breaking it appears inevitable. Western leaders focus on measures for containing Russia, expecting that the break may come in the form of discharging tensions and managing the hostilities. For the Kremlin, however, the incentives to go in this direction are weakened by the need to justify the consequences of the maturing economic crisis to the demobilized populace and disgruntled elites. The more emphasis is placed ...

Aborted Offensive in Donbass on the Eve of the G7 Summit

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 9 June 2015

The swiftly terminated rebel attack on Maryinka was probably meant to be Putin’s “warning shot” to the Western leaders. But he only succeeded in reminding them about the near certainty (rather than risk) of a summer spasm in the “hybrid war.” While the Russian battalions concentrated in the war zone appear far from eager to go into battle, the assorted war-bands of local thugs and Russian “volunteers” of invariably aggressive persuasions have nothing else to do but to resume fighting. It seems Putin’s support base is eager to cheer for new victories but absolutely not ready to keep waiting for ...

Weakening Russia Curtails Access to Publicly Available Information

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 2 June 2015

These attempts at curtailing the flow of information and persecuting the disseminators of politically undesirable news (including bloggers) might appear old-fashioned and inspired by Soviet-era KGB practices, which are held dear by Putin and his henchmen. They are, nevertheless, more effective than the spread of Internet-based social networks would suggest—and not only due to the impact of their vicious propaganda but also because the mass production of “patriotic” illusions has left many people disoriented and averse to facts and figures that puncture these illusions and leave them with feelings of foreboding disaster. The Kremlin exploits this disorientation and presents its ...

After the swaggering celebrations, a "Now what?" moment for Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 May 2015

The extraordinary pomp around the celebration of the V-Day made it possible for Putin to sustain the momentum of mobilization created by last year’s Crimean anschluss. Now that the fanfare and fireworks have fallen silent, this momentum may dissipate—and Putin, who has made himself into the central figure in militarized festivities, can ill afford such a slackening of “patriotic” fervor. The heavy emphasis on the decisive and glorious victory won by the “grandfathers” sits poorly with the evasive and ambivalent discourse on the on-going war with “brotherly” Ukraine. For the aggressively “patriotic” propaganda, it is hard to explain the point ...

Putin's Political Pause Amid National Mobilization

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 May 2015

The focal point for the “patriotic” propaganda for the last several months has been the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia), which is now just a few days away. Reflections on the horrible costs of that bitter victory or on coalition efforts with the Allies have been nearly nonexistent; instead, jingoistic triumphalism, combined with the traditional display of military might, translates into an eager anticipation of yet another victorious campaign. Putin has invested a lot of personal effort in turning this celebration into ...

Beware of Putin Talking Shop

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 21 April 2015

“Boring” is perhaps the prevalent impression of President Vladimir Putin’s televised four-hour-long Q & A session that aired last Thursday (April 16), which was meant to demonstrate his good health and relaxed attitude to the great many problems worrying his loyal subjects…. […] Typically, such commentary by high officials is merely camouflage for Russia’s real intentions. But Moscow is unlikely to try to escalate the conflict in the coming few weeks as the Russian Armed Forces are going through the spring draft cycle. Even more importantly, Putin obviously wants to stage picture-perfect May 9 Victory Day celebrations in Red Square, ...

Apocalypse a Bit Later: The Meaning of Putin’s Nuclear Threats

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

The words that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for describing the nuclear angle of the special operation for seizing and annexing Crimea in March 2014, might appear so odd that it is well-nigh impossible to make sense of them. “Yes, we were ready,” he said to the question about whether the option of putting strategic forces on high alert was considered. He then clarified that these forces were always on high readiness status. And when “some military experts” advised him to use all available means of deterrence, he said “No,” according to the propaganda documentary shown two weeks ago on ...

Iranian Deal leaves Russia in Deeper Isolation

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 April 2015

While Iran appears to be recognizing the need to reform its domestic politics and change its attitude toward the West, Russia is turning into a massively corrupt police state and is apparently thriving in the atmosphere of confrontation. The contrast between these two regimes has become strikingly sharp as nuclear negotiations approached the final stretch toward a binding agreement. Moscow still tries to present itself as a responsible stake-holder in the international system. But with every turn of the screw in the government’s repressions against members of the domestic opposition—stigmatized as “traitors” and “foreign agents”—Russia’s external behavior tends to turn ...

Two Summits and a Military Exercise

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 24 March 2015

While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity. Just another push and a couple more bribes, they argue, will convince some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that Narva or Spitsbergen are not worth fighting for, or to persuade some EU members that the sanctions regime is counter-productive. This split needs to be achieved in the coming weeks, in time for a summer offensive in eastern Ukraine toward Mariupol and Melitopol (opening the land corridor to Crimea) to be condoned at new (Minsk Three) summit—where France ...

Putin's Disappearing Act is a Sign of Leadership Crisis

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Since the Ukraine crisis exploded a year ago, Putin’s system of power has rigidified into a uni-centric combination of a police state, kleptocracy and “propagandocracy” (if such a word could be invented), in which no transition of authority can be planned or envisaged. His recent poorly camouflaged and worse explained “disappearance” has not re-confirmed his indispensability, but signaled that the courtier-siloviki will not be able to manage the appointment of a new boss without unleashing a multi-clan feud—in which Kadyrov with his battalions and billions could be a major force. Putin is leading Russia toward state failure; and the incapacitation ...

Free Rein of Special Services makes Russia Ungovernable

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 March 2015

It took a week for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) to produce a pair of plausible suspects in the shocking murder of Boris Nemtsov on February 28. Last Saturday (March 7), FSB Director Aleksandr Bortnikov reported to President Vladimir Putin that two men implicated in the crime were under arrest; and on Sunday, another man killed himself with a hand grenade in Grozny… Too many loose ends in this crime persist, however, for one to have any confidence in the official version. Putin is no more able to assert effective control over rogue elements within the special services than his ...

Murder that Revealed Truth

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 6 March 2015

As days go by, the pain and shock from the news about Boris Nemtsov murder are turning into sad reflections on Russia’s predicament, and my bottom line goes as following: Nemtsov was a voice in the wilderness of Russian propaganda and self-deception. And his murder has cut away multiple layers of lies in Putin’s “war is peace” story. Tens of thousands of people who marched last Sunday across the bridge, which the man who refused to live a lie had walked to meet four bullets, may never learn the truth about the hand that pulled the trigger. They know, however, where ...

After Debaltsevo - Is there a Chance for Ceasefire?

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 25 February 2015

It is entirely correct to say that the “Minsk Two” agreement, reached on February 12, after painstakingly long talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, was broken inside the first week of implementation. Yet, as the battle for Debaltseve has drawn to its predictable end, the opposing parties may find it opportune to take a break from the trenches (RBC.ru, February 18). Ukraine has suffered another humiliating defeat, and President Petro Poroshenko needs time to deal with its consequences, though he would perhaps do better by not denying the scale of this tactical disaster (Kommersant, February 21). ...

Partnership of Contrarians

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 18 February 2015

Russia connects with Turkey seeking opportunities in the Middle East. Violent conflicts in the Middle East gained new momentum in 2014, and the forceful multilateral efforts to contain them yielded far from satisfactory results. Both Russia and Turkey have remained aloof from these efforts, and often oppose US-led endeavors but they have major stakes in the overlapping regional conflicts and so are exploring opportunities to claim a key role in pro-active conflict management. Russia’s best opportunity to boost its role in the Middle East is by launching joint initiatives with Turkey. Energy ties are a less solid foundation for this ...

Ukraine takes Painful Hits - but Must Stay in the Fight

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 11 February 2015

President Vladimir Putin loves to play the “divide-and-deceive” game, imagining that every split between the United States and Europe or inside the European Union is an opportunity to corrupt Western policies, opinions, and values. It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found himself on the receiving end of an elegant “deter-and-engage” combination. As NATO announced the decision to strengthen its Response Force and military presence in the Baltic area, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande traveled to Moscow to impress upon President Vladimir Putin the urgent need to stop ...

Diplomacy Delivers Another Pause for Struggling Ukraine and Sinking Russia

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 10 February 2015

The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President Vladimir Putin and the two European envoys—German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande—as the “last chance” to stop the war. The five-hour talks concluded without any agreement or press conference. And during their brief photo-session, the three leaders wore their sternest facial expressions, demonstrating how hard it was ...

Russia Makes Haste in Severing Ties with Europe

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 3 February 2015

Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to reach a compromise on the issue of restoring Russia’s full participation in this important pan-European forum. But he was so irked by the international body’s decision to prolong its sanctions against Russia (including the suspension of the right to vote) for another three months that he stormed out of the ...

Amid Mounting Domestic Troubles, Putin Tries to Regain Initiative in Eastern Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 28 January 2015

The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week (January 22) has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, it has been a welcome return to the path of victory for many in Russia who consume or produce the flow of war propaganda. For some observers, the fragility of the ceasefire and the impossibility of “freezing” the conflict in the present configuration were beyond doubt, so the question that is looming large in the commentary is not “Why?” but rather “Why now?” The rest of the article ...

Futile Hopes for the Dubious Summit in Astana

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 13 January 2015

Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev made an unscheduled visit to Berlin on Friday (January 9), seeking to persuade German Chancellor Angela Merkel that a summit in Astana on January 15 could make sense to break the Russian deadlock in the talks, and he then had a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Kremlin.ru, ...

Russia Enters New Year Mired in Troubles

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 6 January 2015

The post–New Year holidays in Russia have brought less joy or happy expectations than usual to the country’s elites, the urban middle classes and even to Russia’s millions of labor migrants. Over the past 15 years, all these groups shared in the country’s prosperity, which had grown steadily since President Boris Yeltsin resigned and made Vladimir Putin his successor. The crisis of 2008–2009 delivered only a short interruption to this increase in incomes and fortunes, though the mass protests in 2012 revealed growing discontent among liberal-minded “creative classes” in Moscow. The year 2014, on the other hand, began with optimistic ...

With Ukraine going strong, Putin becomes lost in the fog of hybrid war

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Last weekend (November 21), Ukraine marked the first anniversary of the EuroMaidan—the public protests in Kyiv that lasted through the hard winter of discontent and brought down the corrupt regime of Viktor Yanukovych on February 21. As its war for state survival continues to rage, the country is in no mood for street festivities. Nevertheless, the EuroMaidan clearly still drives Ukraine’s policy, as was illustrated by the formation of a broad governing coalition pledging to restore the country’s territorial integrity and deepen its pro-Western orientation, including the goal of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) (Gazeta.ru, November 21). United ...

Putin goes to China, but fails to turn his illusions into reality

Posted by Pavel Baev on Wednesday, 12 November 2014

In a case of striking symbolism, President Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing on the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, as if seeking reassurance against the specter of a mass public uprising. The dismantling of that icon of the Cold War signified a breakthrough in finally achieving a Europe united by the vision of freedom and democracy. But for Putin, as his past remarks suggest, it was a painfully traumatic experience that left him forever in fear of a sudden explosion of popular discontent (Gazeta.ru, November 4). The Chinese leadership shares his deep hostility to revolutions and ...

Imagine Novaya gazeta with the Nobel medal on the banner

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 October 2014

In the past-but-still-present Soviet times, leading newspaper proudly carried a set of awards – like the Order of the Red Star – on their front pages. I can just imagine the fiercely independent Novaya gazeta sporting the Nobel medal on its banner (just above the usual political cartoon) – as an added challenge to the revival of the Soviet symbolism and propaganda. I wanted to write in this blog that there is far more to Novaya than its trademark defiant stance against creeping authoritarianism. The free spirit of this very special newspaper translates into sharp sports commentary, and spectacular photo ...

Forget the Economy - It's Geopolitics, Putin

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 7 October 2014

The trickle of sad and sour economic news continues to exacerbate Russia’s stagnant economic outlook, but the Kremlin authorities remain resolutely indifferent to these negative trends. They presume that the arrival of a “technical” recession does not constitute a political challenge because the “below-middle” classes have rallied around the flag of confrontation with the West, while the business elites are lined up to follow the government’s “patriotic” instructions. It is the urban middle classes that tend to sink into discontent, but they remain disheartened by the hard-hitting propaganda and divided by selective repressions. This confidence in political control over the ...

Russia gears up for a new spasm in the hybrid war

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 30 September 2014

Big guns have mostly remained silent in eastern Ukraine last week, but diplomatic battles at the United Nations General Assembly have not shown any recess. Russia used to be able to score some easy points at this seasonal show by denouncing the United States’ unilateralism and hegemonic arrogance. This time around, however, it is Moscow which has been the main target of censure, a tone set by President Barack Obama, who defined Russia as one of the main threats to international security, on par with the Ebola epidemic and Islamist militant groups operating in Iraq and Syria (Kommersant, September 26). ...

The pause in the Ukraine war is not Putin's victory

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 16 September 2014

The tragic battles around Donetsk and Luhansk (collectively known as the Donbas region) have taken a pause, and as civilians try to rebuild a semblance of normal life, leaders are figuring out how to now move forward. In his first 100 days, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has shown the ability to absorb hard blows, but now he needs to find both resolve to rebuild confidence in his shell-shocked country and caution to avoid a full-blown war with Russia. It is, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin who is finding himself in an impossible and entirely self-made jam. He has avoided a ...

Assaulting Ukraine, Putin dares the West to respond

Posted by Pavel Baev on Thursday, 4 September 2014

Just 75 years ago, the devastating war arrived to Europe – and this brave Polish cavalry perished fighting tanks. These days tanks are again rolling – and Europe needs to find a way to stop them. The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that opens in the Welsh Celtic Manor resort tomorrow (September 4) will feature the Ukraine crisis as an agenda item of top priority and extreme urgency. Only a week ago, this crisis appeared manageable as Russian President Vladimir Putin shook hands with his Ukrainian counterpart, President Petro Poroshenko, in Minsk under the watchful eye of ...

Putin Picks the Worst of all Bad Choices

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 12 August 2014

With the arrival of August, political expectations in Russia, informed by the long experience of setbacks and disasters, are turning negative. Second thoughts about the “victorious” war with Georgia that erupted six years ago blend with reflections on the centennial anniversary of World War I (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 6). At the same time, liberal-minded pundits remind the public about Russia’s 1998 fiscal default, while arguing that in a globalized world the most devastating battles are fought in the financial realm (Novaya Gazeta, August 6). Whereas, the smoke coming from the sunflower fields in eastern Ukraine, where the Moscow-backed separatist war ...

West pushes and eases Putin toward a "Diplomatic solution" in Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 5 August 2014

Bad news hit the Kremlin thick and fast last week, but on Friday evening (August 1), President Vladimir Putin answered a phone call from US President Barack Obama, who again stressed that the Kremlin’s mounting problems can be resolved diplomatically (whitehouse.gov, August 1). Putin’s personal responsibility for the war in eastern Ukraine is apparently no longer up for discussion. Meanwhile, the West—after having vigorously mobilized a political effort to enforce far tougher sanctions than Moscow had budgeted for—is seemingly granting him an “honorable” way out. In Washington, and even more so in Berlin, there is understandable reluctance to heighten Putin’s ...

Putin held Personally Responsible for the War he is Losing

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 29 July 2014

If President Vladimir Putin really thought that the destruction of Flight MH17 with 298 people on board would soon blow over, the White House statement from last Friday must have disillusioned him—assuming his subordinates actually informed him about it. The White House statement directly noted: “we have concluded that Vladimir Putin and the Russians are culpable to this tragedy.” Russian media did its best to spin these words, whereas the official sources mentioned only the West’s lack of irrefutable evidence (Newsru.com, RIA Novosti, July 26). It is possible to interpret “the Russians” in this context in the narrow sense—as the ...

Putin tours Latin America, but his fate is decided in Ukraine

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 15 July 2014

The upcoming BRICS (a loose political-economic grouping of the large emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit, scheduled to take place in Fortaleza, Brazil, on July 15–17, provided an occasion for President Vladimir Putin to make a lengthy tour around Latin America, starting from Cuba last Friday and making a short unscheduled detour to Nicaragua on Saturday. Meetings with the Castro brothers as well as with Daniel Ortega did little to restore Putin’s international prestige, but they allowed him to make a grand gesture of writing off Cuba’s debt amounting to no less than $35 billion ...

Moscow Pulls a Diplomatic Pause as the War in Ukraine Rages

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 8 July 2014

The most dramatic turn in the protracted Ukrainian calamity last week was the decision of President Petro Poroshenko to end the ceasefire and resume the offensive against separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Poroshenko had every reason to conclude that the cessation of combat operations plays into rebel hands, since Ukraine’s control over the border with Russia was not restored and reinforcements from Russia were pouring into the motley gangs of pretentious warlords (RBC Daily, July 2). Heavy fighting brought casualties among civilians, so Poroshenko had to dismiss the top brass and appoint a new defense minister, while insisting ...

Putin Keeps Retreating from War but Cannot Accept Peace

Posted by Pavel Baev on Tuesday, 1 July 2014

The big picture of the Ukrainian conflict has changed significantly during the last week as this troubled state confirmed its hard-made European choice. The hundreds of rebels fighting in the trenches around Slavyansk and the hundreds of thousands of civilians, who are trying to make sense out of the violent disorder in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, are probably unaware of this change and may not know that the non-existent ceasefire is extended to Monday evening. Nevertheless, the signing of the association agreement with the EU was a major breakthrough in the efforts to pull Ukraine from the quagmire of state failure ...

Moscow Gambles on Raising the Stakes - in Syria and Across the Board

Posted by Pavel Baev on Monday, 10 October 2016

The crisis in relations with Russia, and in particular Russia’s behavior in the Syrian war, has become an unusually prominent theme in the U.S. election campaign. That means that a new administration could start with a set of tough pledges, rather than with a clean slate. Campaign trail rhetoric is worth only so much, but a new president would still have to demonstrate both readiness to contain Russia’s experiments in power projection and commitment to rebuild Syria in the wake of the catastrophe it has experienced. Moscow can try to act as a spoiler in Syria, but it is already ...

What This Election Means for US Foreign Policy

Posted by Pavel Baev on Friday, 11 November 2016

The resonance of this U.S. election campaign is truly enormous, in every corner of the world. But despite much disgust about the mudslinging, it is not necessarily all that negative. Observers everywhere may be astounded that a candidate so arrogantly ignorant in international affairs could gather so much support, but that has also given them a greater understanding of the global stakes in this moment of choice. Paradoxical as it may seem, many people now have greater appreciation of the value of U.S. leadership and of their interest in preserving it. This leadership is indeed indispensable in various troubled areas, ...

Related pages