Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Senior Researcher. Managing Editor, International Area Studies Review

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Email: havnyg@prio.org
Work phone: +47 225 47 705
Mobile phone: +47 990 30 548
Twitter: @havardmn

Research Interests

My present research is centred on two themes:

Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.

Political Economy of Authoritarianism:  Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus. 


 

Background

​​​​​​​​​​Working experience:

Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2014 – 
Norwegian Ministry of Defence Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, PRIO, 2014 –
Associate Researcher, PRIO, 2010 – 2014
Research Assistant, CSCW, PRIO 2008 – 2010
Research Assistant for Dr. Tom Segev 2007 – 2008
Research Intern, African Council for Sustainable Health Development, Ibadan Nigeria, 2003

Education:

 
PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo (January 2014)
M. Phil, Political Science, University of Oslo (June 2009)
BA, Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, (June 2004)

 
Consulting experience :

World Bank, on the development consequences of conflict (2010—2011)
Human Security Report Project, on education and conflict (2011)
NATO-Allied Command Transformation, on strategic foresight (2014—2015)
EU Commission, Joint Research Center, on developing a global conflict risk model (2014—)
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, on forecasting conflict and political instability (2014--)

 

 

 

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

Publications

​Current working papers:

The Conflict Trap  (with Håvard Hegre, Håvard Strand, Joakim Karlsen, Ranveig Flaten Ræder)

Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?  (with Carl Henrik Knutsen and Tore Wig) 

 

The Logic of Nonviolent Revolutions  (with Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, and Håvard Strand)

Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations ​ (with Håvard Hegre and Lisa Hultman)​

Recent publications

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Norway's Offical Development Cooperation under the SDG agenda, Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance -- conflict nexus, International Area Studies Review.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2016) Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) Standing Idly by during the Revolution, PRIO Policy Brief, 15. Oslo: PRIO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Report of the Conveners, UNDP/PRIO Expert Meeting on Measuring SDG 16. .
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).

All publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance -- conflict nexus, International Area Studies Review.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Norway's Offical Development Cooperation under the SDG agenda, Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) Prediksjon i internasjonal politikk [Predicting international politics], Internasjonal Politikk 73(4): 467–487.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894215599554.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable Than Autocracies and Democracies?, American Journal of Political Science 59(3): 656–670.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2015) Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence, Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557–580.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Scott Gates (2013) Soft power at home and abroad: Sport diplomacy, politics and peace-building, International Area Studies Review 16(3): 235–243.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; & Joakim Karlsen (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050, International Studies Quarterly 55(2): 1–21.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Hultman, Lisa (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations, 2010-2035 , Lecture Notes In Computer Science 6589325–332.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2009) Trekantdramaet mellom Israel, Iran og Hezbollah [The Israel - Iran - Hezbollah Threesome], Babylon 7(2): 66–87.

PhD Thesis

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2014) Five Essays on the Political Economy of Regime Survival. PhD thesis, Political Science, University of Oslo.

Book Chapter

Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
Gates, Scott; Kaushik Roy; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Continuity and Change in Asymmetric Warfare in Afghanistan: From the Mughals to the Americans, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building In Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (21–42).

Popular Article

Miklian, Jason; Kristian Hoelscher & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) What makes a country dangerous for aid workers?, The Guardian.
Sagmo, Tove Heggli ; Marta Bivand Erdal; Rojan Tordhol Ezzati; Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Innvandringsdebatt på feil premisser [Wrong premises for the debate about immigration into Europe], NRK Ytring.

Conference Paper

Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Sirianne Dahlum & Joakim Karlsen (2015) Forecasting Regime Type, 2014‐2100, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, 18–21 February 2015.
Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv;Strand, Håvard; & Gates, Scott 2012The Conflict Trap , presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting.
Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2012 Governance and Conflict Relapse, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego 1-4 April 2012, , .
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.

PRIO Policy Brief

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2016) Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) Standing Idly by during the Revolution, PRIO Policy Brief, 15. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Esther Trappeniers (2016) Conflict Recurrence, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Understanding Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.
Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Thomas Wheeler & Henrik Urdal (2016) Options for Measuring Conflict Deaths in Goal 16, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - External Series

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Report of the Conveners, UNDP/PRIO Expert Meeting on Measuring SDG 16. .
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region , E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts Issue No. 4 , 4. New York: United Nations.
Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region: An Overview, UN Doc E/ESCWA/ECRI/2011/1, 25 August, : UN ESCWA.
Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region, Background paper for UN study The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region, : .
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard (2010) Consequences of Civil War , Background paper for World Development Report 2011 .

Blog Posts

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war are still at work.​ Since the Korean War, battle casualties have been declining. As a result of the civil wars in Syria and Iraq, casualties have risen to the highest level in 25 years, but are still far below levels of the Cold War. The number of conflicts has also risen in 2013 and 2014, ...

Is it Strange that Dictators Hold Elections?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 14 December 2015

Why do dictators hold elections that merely play to the gallery? On 11 October, Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected as president of Belarus with an impressive 84 per cent share of the vote. The election was anything but free and fair. According to the OSCE, Belarusian law makes it impossible for the will of the people to be realized and, as if that were not enough, the election itself was characterized by fraud. Lukashenko’s regime had invested significant resources in preventing the election from being meaningful. So what was the point of holding it? Why do dictators hold elections that merely ...

Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers: Five New Findings

Posted by Jason Miklian, Kristian Hoelscher & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Tuesday, 1 December 2015

More aid workers are being targeted in violent attacks than ever before, but the roots of humanitarian insecurity have nuanced and surprising causes. Syria. Afghanistan. Mali. Central African Republic. Today’s complex conflicts seem to be defined by insurgents, terrorist groups and other violent actors with ideologies that increasingly disregard the rules of war. Over 150,000 people died in conflicts around the world last year, with a further 59 million displaced – the highest total ever recorded. Troublingly, aid worker attacks have increased in tandem. Headlines relay stories of humanitarian aid workers caught in the middle, killed either in the fog of war – or ...

War is Development in Reverse

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 25 September 2015

The UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals are ready for adoption. For the first time, the UN will measure the incidence of one of the most controversial, but important, development indicators: the amount of armed conflict in the world. On 25 September this year, a UN summit will adopt the new Sustainable Development Goals. These will replace the Millennium Development Goals dating from 2000, which expire this year. Originally Norway pressed for the Millennium Development Goals to include the goal of a more peaceful society. This turned out to be too controversial. Several countries feared that such a goal would legitimize ...

Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable than Autocracies and Democracies?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Carl Henrik Knutsen on Monday, 10 August 2015

In Zaïre (currently DR Congo) in 1991, the country’s personalist ruler Mobutu Sese Seko faced popular unrest, army mutinies, and shrinking resources for patronage. Mobutu was seemingly starting to lose his grip on power, which he had held since the mid-1960s. In response, Mobutu ended the decades-long ban on political parties other than his own Popular Movement of the Revolution, promised free and fair elections, and entered into a coalition government. Yet, a couple of years later ‒ after the situation had “calmed down”, and after having shored up army support ‒ Mobutu reversed the liberalization measures. Almost 150 years ...

The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are profound. In this two-part post, we examine the development consequences of internal armed conflict. Part 1 focuses on how conflict affects development. Part 2 turns to the conflict trap and the post-2015 development agenda. Development in reverse The Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) has investigated the consequences of internal armed ...

Peacekeeping Works

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 5 February 2015

An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations. It shows a remarkably strong combined effect of UN operations’ ability to contain the lethality of wars as well as preventing them from reerupting or spreading. Peacekeeping reduces the level of violence in conflict Peacekeeping decreases the duration of conflict Peacekeeping increases the longevity of peace An ...

Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that conflict has been an important impediment to achieving these goals.  The consequences of conflict extend far beyond the battlefield. PRIO has documented substantial negative effects of conflict on most developmental indicators. The indirect effects of conflict may be as great as the direct effects. There is a clear case for ...

War Breeds War

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 8 September 2014

As a result of civil wars, some of the world’s least developed nations are now further away from achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals than they were when the goals were first adopted.  The UN General Assembly adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000. Following lengthy debate, the assembly agreed on eight goals that the whole world could endorse. The eight goals centred on poverty and hunger; child mortality; maternal mortality; education; HIV/AIDS; equality; sustainable development; and global partnerships for development. The deadline for achieving the goals is the end of 2015. Many countries have now achieved all eight ...

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. How the security forces react is intimately linked to the tactics employed by civil society. Brief Points: Nonviolent revolt is much more likely to succeed. This has been evident in Ukraine and the Arab Spring.  The actions of security forces largely determine the success of popular uprisings, as seen in ...

Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Håvard Hegre & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of this century. As a consequence, the world should continue to grow ever more peaceful. In a new policy brief – launched at the JPR 50th anniversary celebrations today – and the first one out of the PRIO Conflict Trends project – we offer more in-depth comments on the following points: ...

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