Håvard Mokleiv Nygård

Research Director, Senior Researcher, Managing Editor

Håvard Mokleiv Nygård
Email: havnyg@prio.org
Work phone: +47 225 47 705
Mobile phone: +47 990 30 548
Twitter: @havardmn

Research Interests

My present research is centred on two themes:

Forecasting: Forecasting long-term incidence of civil armed conflict, forecasting regime type, and joint forecasts for conflict and regime type. Developing models (Bayesian and frequentist) for forecasting conflict and regime type.

Political Economy of Authoritarianism:  Regime duration, repression and regime survival, voting and regime survival, autocratic coalition dynamics, especially the relationship between the dictator and the security apparatus. 


 

Background

​​​​​​​​​​Working experience:

  • Research Director, Conditions of Violence and Peace, PRIO 2017 -
  • Associate Editor, International Area Studies Review
  • Senior Researcher, PRIO, 2014 – 
  • Norwegian Ministry of Defence Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, PRIO, 2014 –
  • Associate Researcher, PRIO, 2010 – 2014
  • Research Assistant, CSCW, PRIO 2008 – 2010
  • Research Assistant for Dr. Tom Segev 2007 – 2008
  • Research Intern, African Council for Sustainable Health Development, Ibadan Nigeria, 2003

Education:
  •  PhD in Political Science, University of Oslo (January 2014)
  • M. Phil, Political Science, University of Oslo (June 2009)
  • BA, Comparative Politics, University of Bergen, (June 2004)

 
Consulting experience :
  • World Bank, on the development consequences of conflict (2010—2011)
  • Human Security Report Project, on education and conflict (2011)
  • NATO-Allied Command Transformation, on strategic foresight (2014—2015)
  • EU Commission, Joint Research Center, on developing a global conflict risk model (2014—)
  • United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, on forecasting conflict and political instability (2014--)

 

 

 

Events

PRIO started tracking events online in 2007. This listing is not complete. Past events may be mentioned in our news archive.

Publications

​Current working papers:

The next 50 years of democracy: Forecasting regime types, 2013--2062 (with Håvard Hegre, Sirianne Dahlum and Joakim Karlsen) PaperJoD.pdf

The Conflict Trap  (with Håvard Hegre, Håvard Strand, Joakim Karlsen, Ranveig Flaten Ræder)

The Logic of Nonviolent Revolutions  (with Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, and Håvard Strand)

Evaluating the conflict-reducing effect of UN peacekeeping operations ​ (with Håvard Hegre and Lisa Hultman)​

Recent Publications

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2017) Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance – conflict nexus, International Area Studies Review. DOI: 10.1177/2233865916683609: 1–16.
Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Conflict, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks Against Aid Workers, International Peacekeeping 24(4): 1–28.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Conflict, Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks against Aid Workers, International Peacekeeping. DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2017.1321958.

All Publications

Peer-reviewed Journal Article

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2017) Achieving the sustainable development agenda: The governance – conflict nexus, International Area Studies Review. DOI: 10.1177/2233865916683609: 1–16.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Conflict, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks Against Aid Workers, International Peacekeeping 24(4): 1–28.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2017) Conflict, Peacekeeping and Humanitarian Security: Understanding Violent Attacks against Aid Workers, International Peacekeeping. DOI: 10.1080/13533312.2017.1321958.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Julian Wucherpfennig & Nils W. Metternich (2017) Introduction: Forecasting in peace research, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 113–124.
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Ranveig Flaten Ræder (2017) Evaluating the scope and intensity of the conflict trap: A dynamic simulation approach, Journal of Peace Research 54(2): 243–261.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Tore Wig (2017) Autocratic Elections: Stabilizing Tool or Force for Change?, World Politics 69(1): 98–143.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Norway's Official Development Cooperation under the SDG agenda, Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) Prediksjon i internasjonal politikk [Predicting international politics], Internasjonal Politikk 73(4): 467–487.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2015) The role of international organizations in regime transitions: How IGOs can tie a dictator’s hands, Conflict Management and Peace Science. DOI: 10.1177/0738894215599554.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Governance and Conflict Relapse, Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(6): 984–1016.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2015) Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence, Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557–580.
Knutsen, Carl Henrik & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable Than Autocracies and Democracies?, American Journal of Political Science 59(3): 656–670.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Scott Gates (2013) Soft power at home and abroad: Sport diplomacy, politics and peace-building, International Area Studies Review 16(3): 235–243.
Hegre, Håvard; Joakim Karlsen; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2013) Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050, International Studies Quarterly 57(2): 250–270.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2012) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, World Development 40(9): 1713–1722.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2011) Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 6589: 325–332.

PhD Thesis

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2014) Five Essays on the Political Economy of Regime Survival. PhD thesis, Political Science, University of Oslo.

Book Chapter

Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2016) Development Consequences of Armed Conflict, in Pérouse de Montclos, Marc-Antoine; Elizabeth Minor; & Samrat Sinha, eds, Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting For the Dead. Berlin: Springer (25–45).
Gates, Scott; Kaushik Roy; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Continuity and Change in Asymmetric Warfare in Afghanistan: From the Mughals to the Americans, in Gates, Scott; & Kaushik Roy, eds, War and State-Building in Afghanistan: Historical and Modern Perspectives. London: Bloomsbury (21–42).

Popular Article

Miklian, Jason; Kristian Hoelscher & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) What makes a country dangerous for aid workers?, The Guardian, 18 January.
Sagmo, Tove Heggli; Marta Bivand Erdal; Rojan Tordhol Ezzati; Maria Gabrielsen Jumbert & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Innvandringsdebatt på feil premisser [Wrong premises for the debate about immigration into Europe], NRK Ytring, 8 September.

Conference Paper

Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Sirianne Dahlum & Joakim Karlsen (2015) Forecasting Regime Type, 2014‐2100, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, New Orleans, 18–21 February 2015.
Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2012 Governance and Conflict Relapse, presented at International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Diego 1-4 April 2012, , .
Hegre, Håvard; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand; Scott Gates & Ranveig D. Flaten (2011) The Conflict Trap, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting., Seattle, WA, October 11, 2011.
Gates, Scott;Hegre, Håvard;Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Strand, Håvard 2010 Arab Exceptionalism -- How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to Trust my Secret Police, presented at Peace Science Society (International) , , 21–23 Oct.
Hegre, Håvard;Hultman, Lisa ; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv 2010 Evaluating the Conflict Reducing Effects of UN Peace-Keeping Operations, presented at American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, , 1–5 September.

PRIO Policy Brief

Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2017) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2016, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Bahgat, Karim; Gray Barrett; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Solveig Hillesund; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal & Gudrun Østby (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Policy Recommendations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Marianne Dahl & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) Standing Idly by during the Revolution, PRIO Policy Brief, 15. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Esther Trappeniers (2016) Conflict Recurrence, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv & Michael Weintraub (2016) Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia, Conflict Trends, 4. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2016) State Fragility and Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 7. Oslo: PRIO.
Dupuy, Kendra; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Ida Rudolfsen; Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal (2016) Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2015, Conflict Trends, 8. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard; Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Peacekeeping Works: An Assessment of the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Hoelscher, Kristian; Jason Miklian & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2015) Understanding Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers, Conflict Trends, 6. Oslo: PRIO.
Hegre, Håvard & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård (2014) Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 1. Oslo: PRIO.
Dahl, Marianne; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings, Conflict Trends, 2. Oslo: PRIO.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand (2014) Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict, Conflict Trends, 3. Oslo: PRIO.

PRIO Paper

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Thomas Wheeler & Henrik Urdal (2016) Options for Measuring Conflict Deaths in Goal 16, PRIO Paper. Oslo: PRIO.

Report - Other

Bahgat, Karim; Kendra Dupuy; Scott Gates; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; Siri Aas Rustad; Håvard Strand; Henrik Urdal; Gudrun Østby; Gray Barrett; & Solveig Hillesund (2017) Inequality and Armed Conflict: Evidence and Data.

Report - External Series

Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2016) Report of the Conveners, UNDP/PRIO Expert Meeting on Measuring SDG 16. .
Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; & Håvard Hegre (2015) Protracted Conflict and Development in the Arab Region, E/ESCWA/ECRI/2015/2 UNESCWA Trends and Impacts, 4. New York: United Nations.
Hegre, Håvard; & Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv (2011) The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region, Background paper for UN study The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region, : .
Chaitani, Youssef ; Håvard Hegre; Vito Intini; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Maria Ortiz Perez (2011) The Governance Deficit and Conflict Relapse in the ESCWA Region: An Overview, UN Doc E/ESCWA/ECRI/2011/1, 25 August. Beirut: UN ESCWA.
Gates, Scott; Håvard Hegre; Håvard Mokleiv Nygård; & Håvard Strand (2010) Consequences of Civil War, Background paper for World Development Report 2011. .

Blog Posts

Information Technology Can Help Build Peace. This Is How.

Posted by Kristian Hoelscher, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Jason Miklian on Wednesday, 6 September 2017

In a recent episode of the caustic sitcom “Silicon Valley,” the hard-luck start-up protagonists attend a big technology convention. They stumble across an app called PeaceFare, a game that lets players “build peace” on their phones by giving virtual money to virtual homeless people or virtual corn to virtual starving villagers. ... Read more »

Being Policy Relevant in Peace Research means Forecasting

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Nils W. Metternich, Julian Wucherpfennig & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Wednesday, 2 August 2017

Driven by the ever-increasing availability of (big) data, as well as computational power and resources, we are currently witnessing an important academic debate about the promises and pitfalls of predicting social and human behavior. Given its potentially disastrous consequences, the prediction of armed conflict and political violence more generally, not ... Read more »

Yemen is on the Brink

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 2 March 2017

Most of the world’s attention has recently been directed towards Syria. In the shadow of Syria, the conflict in Yemen has been left to its own devices, and Yemen is now set to experience an even greater humanitarian catastrophe than Syria. In Syria, we witness the beginning of the end ... Read more »

Trends in Armed Conflict, 1946–2014

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard Strand & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 29 April 2016

Headlines from battlefields in Syria, Libya​​, Nigeria, Afghanistan, and Ukraine give the impression that the world is becoming ever more violent. Indeed, since 2013 the number of armed conflicts in the world and the number of battle deaths has risen. Fortunately, the long-term trends nevertheless driving the waning of war ... Read more »

Is it Strange that Dictators Hold Elections?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 14 December 2015

Why do dictators hold elections that merely play to the gallery? On 11 October, Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected as president of Belarus with an impressive 84 per cent share of the vote. The election was anything but free and fair. According to the OSCE, Belarusian law makes it impossible for ... Read more »

Attacks on Humanitarian Aid Workers: Five New Findings

Posted by Jason Miklian, Kristian Hoelscher & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Tuesday, 1 December 2015

More aid workers are being targeted in violent attacks than ever before, but the roots of humanitarian insecurity have nuanced and surprising causes. Syria. Afghanistan. Mali. Central African Republic. Today’s complex conflicts seem to be defined by insurgents, terrorist groups and other violent actors with ideologies that increasingly disregard the ... Read more »

War is Development in Reverse

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Henrik Urdal on Friday, 25 September 2015

The UN’s new Sustainable Development Goals are ready for adoption. For the first time, the UN will measure the incidence of one of the most controversial, but important, development indicators: the amount of armed conflict in the world. On 25 September this year, a UN summit will adopt the new ... Read more »

Institutional Characteristics and Regime Survival: Why Are Semi-Democracies Less Durable than Autocracies and Democracies?

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Carl Henrik Knutsen on Monday, 10 August 2015

In Zaïre (currently DR Congo) in 1991, the country’s personalist ruler Mobutu Sese Seko faced popular unrest, army mutinies, and shrinking resources for patronage. Mobutu was seemingly starting to lose his grip on power, which he had held since the mid-1960s. In response, Mobutu ended the decades-long ban on political ... Read more »

The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 8 April 2015

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are ... Read more »

Peacekeeping Works

Posted by Håvard Hegre, Lisa Hultman & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 5 February 2015

An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of ... Read more »

Development Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Scott Gates, Håvard Hegre, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Wednesday, 17 September 2014

The development consequences of armed conflict are profound and far-reaching. While the direct victims of war understandably receive most attention, the effects of conflict extend far beyond battlefield casualties and refugee camps. Research has shown that conflict affects all aspects of development covered by the Millennium Development Goals, and that ... Read more »

War Breeds War

Posted by Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Monday, 8 September 2014

As a result of civil wars, some of the world’s least developed nations are now further away from achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals than they were when the goals were first adopted.  The UN General Assembly adopted the Millennium Development Goals in September 2000. Following lengthy debate, the assembly ... Read more »

Ukraine and the Role of the Security Forces in Popular Uprisings

Posted by Marianne Dahl, Scott Gates, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård & Håvard Strand on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The recent uprising in Ukraine echoes what happened in the earlier Orange Revolution. Much can be learned by comparing these events and looking at similar uprisings in other countries. This comparison clearly shows the important role played by security forces in determining whether brutal repression or successful regime change will follow. ... Read more »

Peace on Earth? The Future of Internal Armed Conflict

Posted by Håvard Hegre & Håvard Mokleiv Nygård on Thursday, 12 June 2014

The last 20 years have seen a gradual decline in the number and severity of internal armed conflicts worldwide. This trend is partly due to widespread improvements in factors such as education levels, economic diversification, and demographic characteristics. These factors are projected to continue to improve for the remainder of ... Read more »

Related pages